Afghanistan Peace Deal Smells Disintegration

IRAN NEWS POLITICAL DESK

Doha, the capital of Qatar, recently hosted U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad and Taliban forces’ representative Mullah Abdul Ghani where the world watched a peace deal which was a mere loss and flop for the whole region. Doha created a ground for representatives of the U.S. and Taliban to reach an agreement for release of 5,000 prisoners, attributed to the Taliban forces in Afghanistan.

Doha was the finish line for almost a year and a half of talks between Taliban and U.S. President Donald Trump’s government to pave the ground for pullout of the U.S. troops from Afghanistan. Of course, it should be mentioned that so far both sides have not revealed official details of their peace deal but witnesses in Doha acknowledge that in the deal, the Afghan government has been tasked with releasing 5,000 Taliban prisoners from prisons across the country. Meanwhile, the U.S. has been assigned with pulling out fully its troops and undiplomatic forces from Afghanistan by June 2021.

But what makes it clear is that to what cost, Americans have accepted to leave Afghanistan and all its interests in Afghanistan after about 20 years military and all-out presence in the country. It seems President Trump has hurriedly signed the deal as a winning card for his upcoming November 2020 U.S. presidential election in order to have at least an achievement to convince American public.

Mr. Trump in his political strategy, resulted from Afghan peace deal, believes that he can make a hype in the media like what he did in Iran’s nuclear deal, trade war with China or nuclear talks with North Korea cases where he had no sustainable interactions and achievements, and this time in deal with Afghanistan even its achievement is only a media hype or memento photo can be considered an achievement in his foreign policies.

From the trend of the deal, it seems that the deal is the ground for probable next agreement in which giving self-autonomy to the Taliban in their two dominated provinces in Afghanistan will be a part of the deal. Of course by release of 5000 Taliban imprisoners, it is unlikely that Taliban remains committed to the deal by getting self-autonomy without arms and in the framework of Afghanistan laws.

That both parties have resorted to political silence over the second phase of the deal can be tied with hope of the U.S. pullout from Afghanistan. Regarding the deal, probably both Taliban and legal Afghan government are after choosing the lesser of two devils, namely, the pullout of the U.S. troops from Afghanistan, as they consider it a good opportunity. And in the second stage, Afghan government also considers it an achievement in its foreign policy.

Giving concession to the Taliban will be easier. By the way, both Taliban and Afghan government consider themselves as the license holders of the country owners while Mr. Trump also sees the occasion as a good opportunity to boost his position in the presidential election by showing the deal as an achievement.

Although the U.S. military men and experts disagree with Trump’s decision, after the deal, they conducted an attack at Taliban position in order to weaken the ground for the deal. Apart from sabotages, both Afghan and Trump governments, despite striking the deal, can break it by resorting different pretexts and Taliban forces, in the wake of the deal, may be forced to disarm and accept the self-autonomy in the framework of Afghan laws.

Regarding the background of the Taliban who have full awareness and familiarity with tricks and treasons of aliens, it seems they have received all concessions from their American party, and undoubtedly they will not be ready to accept disarmament and implementation of general ceasefire in Afghanistan. By the way, the Pentagon also believes that with this deal, Taliban will take full control of whole Afghanistan.

It means that Taliban will keep its military structure and body across Afghanistan and with release of some 5000 of its skillful warriors from the prisons, it can ignite fire of war in Afghanistan with the simplest pretext in order to have dominance over the whole country.

So, Trump, U.S. Department of State and their advisors in Afghanistan should be considered as the ultimate losers of Afghan peace deal. From the day the Afghan peace deal has been signed, all Afghan nation have started countdown for the U.S. troops pullout from the country while they are not ready to give concessions to Taliban forces to run some major parts of Afghanistan.

 By: Hamid Reza Naghashian