TEHRAN (Iran News) –Russia is facing a “geopolitical conflict” in the peripheral area, which cannot be solved in the short term by pursuing the current political-security approaches. Iran is the only geopolitical breathing space for Russia.

On its northern border, Russia competes with Norway, Canada, Denmark and the United States, which have coasts adjacent to the Arctic. Since Finland has joined NATO and Sweden’s membership to the military block is imminent, Russia is under siege and pressure from the West and the Baltic Sea, which has a severe impact on the port of St. Petersburg and the Baltic Sea fleet.

Also, Russia is indirectly engaged in a war of attrition with NATO members on the Ukrainian front.

The Russians were involved in conflict with Georgia earlier in the Caucasus and separated the regions of Ossetia and the autonomous region of Abkhazia from Georgia, which is still the subject of dispute between Tbilisi and Moscow. Georgian authorities say these two areas are occupied by Russia.

Tension is also increasing between Russia and Poland, although it is unlikely that Russia will be able to open a new front with Poland. However, Warsaw is strengthening its defense power for a possible war with Russia. Close defense interactions have been formed between Poland and South Korea, which include the sale of advanced Korean weapons, including FA-50 fighters, K9A1 self-propelled howitzers, HOMAR-K MLRS rocket launchers, and K2 tanks.

It goes without saying that Poland has signed many arms contracts with NATO members, including the United States.

Another issue is the fatal blow that the Russian Black Sea fleet received from Ukraine, and one of the most important challenges of the Russia-Ukraine war is the security of the Russian fleet and ships in the Black Sea.

It should be noted that Russia faces another challenge in the sea. To cross the Black Sea and enter the Mediterranean Sea, it needs access to two straits, the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles, which are controlled by Turkey.
Not long ago, Ankara closed these waterways to the Russian fleet for a while based on the Montreux agreement and on the pretext of the war in Ukraine.

Currently, due to the critical conditions of Turkey’s economy and Erdogan’s approach to Western countries, there is a possibility that we will once again see the aforementioned waterways closed to the Russian fleet.

Of course, the challenge between Russia and Turkey has other dimensions. Ankara is interested in forming the Turan Army with the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) which includes Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Hungary. This strategic goal of Turkey is in line with the Western strategy for NATO expansion to the East.
Not long ago, we witnessed the opening of the NATO relations office in Astana, Kazakhstan, by the American ambassador to the country.

The expansion of NATO to the East, especially Kazakhstan, can harm the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and security interactions in Asia, and bring the reaction of powerful Asian countries such as Russia and China.

Moscow had previously included all NATO member countries (except Turkey) along with Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand, Switzerland, Micronesia and Ukraine in the list of “unfriendly countries”.

Russia will see a lot of tension on its eastern borders and in the Pacific Ocean in the near future. The United States is following the “Indo-Pacific” strategy and arming the countries around China under the pretext of containing China and North Korea. Through the AUKUS treaty, Washington is seeking to form a tripartite military alliance between Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom to develop and deploy nuclear submarines in the Pacific region.

Other countries in East Asia and Oceania, such as Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, the Philippines, and Indonesia, with the support of the United States, are rapidly developing their military programs and intend to form a regional security alliance.

In fact, Washington seeks to reform the intergovernmental relations system in the Asia-Pacific region and fully integrate NATO with the emerging structures of that region.

Russia has a dispute with Japan over the Kuril Islands, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida named Russia, China and North Korea as Japan’s main challenges and spoke of a “new crisis era”.

In a meeting with the leaders of Japan, New Zealand and Australia on the sidelines of the NATO meeting in Vilnius, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yul said his country wants a “collective security order” in the Asia-Pacific.

The developments in East Asia affect the east of Russia, the Vilyuchinsk base in Krai Kamchatka, the port of Vladivostok, and the Great Siberian Railway.

It should be noted that the countries around Russia are busy designing an aggressive policy and alliances to increase their regional role.
In the coming years, Moscow is facing conflictual geopolitics and should think about maintaining its geopolitical interests by focusing on increasing its “relative security” in various political, security, economic and cultural dimensions. Moreover, the danger of disintegration from within also threatens Russia.

For this purpose, Russia can approach Iran. As an independent country with a unique geopolitical situation, Iran has access to open waters and defined a large security network in the world. It also has more than four decades of experience in confronting the West. In fact, the only geopolitical breathing space for Russia is Iran.

Russia helped Iran to become a member of the SCO and BRICS, and Iran also granted contracts for the development of its oil wells to Eastern companies to support the de-dollarization of the economy of Eastern countries such as China, Russia, and even India.

But will Russia tolerate Iran becoming a powerful regional country as its southern flank? The future will determine!

(The views expressed in this article are those of the writer)