TEHRAN (Iran News) –Developments in Niger are moving very fluidly amid fears of a wider military escalation.

The Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS, had set a deadline of Sunday for Niger’s military to give up power and reinstate President Mohamed Bazoum, who was detained on July 26, or face the possibility of military intervention.

With the deadline passing, the military in Niger has closed the skies to air traffic citing the threat of a military attack and warning ECOWAS to stay away from its territory, declaring that “we are determined to protect our homeland against any incursion.”

The military added that any armed intervention would be met with “an immediate and unannounced response by Niger’s defense and security forces.”

While the 15-member West African union has not publicly responded to the rejection of its ultimatum, the bloc is now set to hold another meeting on Thursday to mull its next line of action.

Many have questioned whether the seven-day deadline was even a viable option for military intervention in the first place, citing a lack of preparedness among ECOWAS states and the requirements of parliamentary approval before the use of force.

The possibility of military intervention will reportedly be discussed on Thursday, but ECOWAS, like its previous summit’s statement, has repeated that it is a last resort.

A segment of the statement issued in the previous “extraordinary session of the ECOWAS authority of heads of states and government on the political situation in Niger” on July 30 in Abuja, Nigeria, on resolving the unrest in Niger, stated that “in the event the Authority’s demands are not met within one week, take all measures necessary to restore constitutional order in the Republic of Niger.”

The statement goes on to say that “such measures may include the use of force.”

Critics accuse the United States and France of exerting pressure on ECOWAS to reinstate Niger’s pro-Western President Mohamed Bazoum.

Publicly, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has told reporters that Washington strongly backs the efforts of ECOWAS toward Niger.

“What we are seeing in Niger is extremely troubling and provides nothing to the country and its people,” Blinken told Radio France International on Monday.
He has declined to comment on the future of some 1,100 American troops stationed in the country.

The French Foreign Ministry said in a statement that “the future of Niger and the stability of the entire region are at stake.”

Both Paris and Washington have a strong interest in having Bazoum return to his post.

After all, he was a key ally who allowed France, the former colonial power, and the U.S. to keep their military bases and troops in a country that is the world’s seventh-biggest producer of uranium, the most widely used fuel for nuclear energy.

But there doesn’t appear to be any appetite in Niger for the United States’ or France’s position, who stand accused of destabilizing the country while looting its natural resources.

On Monday, a top American diplomat was snubbed after making an emergency flight to the capital Niamey.

Acting U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland was denied permission to meet with the military’s self-declared leader Abdourahamane Tiani or with Bazoum, who is under house arrest.

Instead, she held talks for two hours with other army officers; but any progress on Washington’s goals in Niger hit a brick wall, with Nuland later saying It was “not easy to get traction there”.

Speaking to reporters afterward, Nuland said, “These conversations were extremely frank and at times quite difficult, because, again, we’re pushing for a negotiated solution. It was not easy to get traction there. They are quite firm in their view of how they want to proceed, and it does not comport with the Constitution of Niger.”

The 1,100 U.S. troops in Niger, who had previously been free to roam about as they wished, have now been restricted to their military bases and the American embassy over the past two weeks where events have been moving very fluidly.

The U.S. has two military bases in Niger.

One is Nigerien Air Base 201 in the central city of Agadez, from where the Pentagon flies drones to allegedly fight extremist militants. France had also used the base for military activities and stationed 1,500 troops there.

Air Base 201, whose future is now up in the air, is the second-largest U.S. military base in Africa.

After the Nigerian military intervention against President Bazoum, locals have been cited by news outlets as saying that they only saw drones flying off, without any security improvement on the ground.

The second is Air Base 101 located in the capital Niamey, another American military site used to fly drones for the purported purpose of combating extremist militants in Niger as well as threats in both the Sahel and Lake Chad Region.

Again, locals say they have witnessed no security improvements. Studies suggest the opposite effect has occurred with a rise in instability.

After Niger closed the country’s airspace, the drones and other warplanes were grounded.

Supporters of the military in Niger have staged a series of demonstrations around the country with footage showing people waving Russian flags.

Among the latest rallies, tens of thousands packed a stadium holding banners in support of the military. Many were seen holding French flags with a red cross, in a sign of their anger toward the former colonial power.

Reports also indicate that people in the region prefer a peaceful and diplomatic resolution to the crisis.

This is particularly evident among lawmakers in states along the more than 1,500km long border with Niger, who fear a conflict will, more than likely, spill over into their borders.

The United Nations said Secretary General Antonio Guterres strongly supports mediation efforts.

Meanwhile, the armies of neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso have announced their intention to defend Niger should it come under attack.

Both Mali and Burkina Faso had previously warned that any foreign intervention in Niger would be considered as a “declaration of war” against them.

On Monday, Mali and Burkina Faso sent delegations to Niamey in a show of unity with the leaders of Niger’s military amid threats to intervene against them.

“We will not accept military intervention in Niger. Our survival depends on it,” a spokesman for Mali’s military said on Niger state television.

There are unintended consequences of resorting to military force to achieve political objectives. Libya, Iraq, and Afghanistan stand out as some examples.

With no post-conflict reconstruction and rehabilitation planning in place, it could potentially turn into one ugly long-term mess that just continues to spiral, not just out of control but also out of borders.