TEHRAN (Iran News) – World to Contain COVID-19. During the past one year and four months which has passed since the news on the outbreak of this devastating deadly coronavirus, more than 40 countries in the world have taken steps to know the virus and to find ways for containing it and all inabilities of the mankind in this regard can be attributed to the level of cultural maturation and beliefs of the people.
In the process of fighting with this virus, the governments have taken action to produce vaccine and most of these vaccines have been effective to 80 to 90 percent. This motivation in the world has enjoyed constructive economic impact and it has brought along the ground for passing through the economic anomalies in most places in the world.
Regarding this, one can look at the statistics and forecasts, for example, looking at the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s forecasts and approach. The IMF on last Tuesday and in its report on global economic growth forecast said that the world in the current year will witness the most economic growth in recent three decades following its efforts for vaccination against the COVID-19 and implementing economic stimulus plans in different countries.
This body in its upgraded report claimed the global economy will expand 6% in 2021, up from the 5.5% pace estimated in January. That would be the most since 1980 and registration of statistics by the IMF. In the report of the Washington-based IMF, the fund has also seen global growth for 2022 at 4.4%, higher than the 4.2% projected in January.
The IMF in its forecast has also said that the pace of economic growth in poorer countries which are not able to carry out the economic stimulus plan will be slower comparing to other countries. This financial body has also predicted that those countries whose economies are too much dependent on tourism will face problem in coming out of economic recession and retaining its pre-COVID-19 era economic growth. That the world with production of vaccine has relatively become more hopeful to contain the COVID-19 can be completely seen in the approach, news and reports coming from the West.
But the condition in Iran is slightly different. The government should have begun the new Iranian calendar year with more restrictions on travels and lockdowns but it did not do it and it not only ruined the past relative successful management, but also has no comprehensive and clear standpoint on the economy affected by the outbreak of the coronavirus.
Some of the Iranian economic experts like Dr. Vahid Shaqaqi Shahri believe that wrong, wish-like and dangerous optimism on the revival of the economy with the revival of the JCPOA is the weakness of the standpoint and planning of the government, and they believe this warning should be sent to the economic community in the Islamic Republic of Iran that pinning hopes on the JCPOA and unblocking the frozen assets in short term would be a dangerous and false hopefulness.
The economist Shaqaqi Shahri by pointing to recent remarks of the governor of Iran’s Central Bank on this year budget’s slow-pacing says, “This year’s budget bill is a set of views and opinions of Majlis, and lawmakers have had some slight changes in the submitted bill by the government and added only some notes and articles during the Majlis session on reviewing the bill. But that it can prepare the ground for economic growth is hardly believable. Regarding the future hopes, of course it should be mentioned that although the agreement between Iran and China is not yet in the legal sense a contract and it mostly sets the cooperation framework, it has had its own psychological impact and acceleration effect on the economic beliefs in Iran.”
Experts on the international trade know that usually sets of two or multi-lateral agreements are signed by the governments which are in line with easing trade relations like easing the private sector investment (for protecting interests of the private companies against the governments). Some of these agreements are so-called state agreements wherein some principles should be observed.
These types of agreements are usually long-term ones in order that in their frameworks and with enjoying their support, the international trade contracts among the individuals of both sided are signed. The main goal of these agreements is a general obligation of the governments for observing the rights of individuals in the contracts which are signed later. For example, the government with its sovereignty power does not take action in unilateral and unfair rescinding of its private sector nationals and companies’ contracts with their foreign counterparts or it does not confiscate the investment of the other party or does not give concessions or subsidies to the domestic companies in a way that the capital of the counterpart investing company is ruined. And if due to some reasons it happened, it would make up for the damage fairly.
These agreements are mainly categorized under the simple and executive agreements. The simple and executive agreements unlike legal and official ones (because it is ethical promise and not legal commitment) do not usually need the approvals of parliaments and they are generally easing the condition for bilateral cooperation. So one of the main reasons for signing the agreement between Iran and China is the behavior of Iran’s government with the Chinese companies especially after the JCPOA which led to unilateral rescinding of agreements and Iran’s refrain from continuing trade cooperation with the Chinese companies especially in the field of energy due to the arrival of the Western companies and overjoy of the government which made the Chinese companies and government be surprised and harmed.
Of course with departure of the Western companies, we once again turned towards China but this disappointment was a hurdle for regaining reciprocal trust which was fortunately settled reasonably through mediation of the leader of the establishment.
We should notice this point that the government by assuming the JCPOA agreement accepted all the limited restrictions but it was probable that those restrictions would be permanent, and it held national celebration. But regarding its trade partner of tough times, namely, China, we see huge onslaught by the pro-government media for reducing the significance of the impact of the agreement between Iran and China and calling for monopoly agreement with the West.
So China’s stepping in for signing a 25-year contract with Iran has been so a comprehensive agreement that has pushed the Westerners to think of restoring the JCPOA even if partially. Experts today believe that Iran with the Rouhani government can contain COVID-19 but economy will not improve but they forecast better outlook for the country for the second half of the year and return to the native Iranian economy with electing a president which tears in the protocols of liberal democracy.