TEHRAN (Iran News) – The world economy will grow by 5.5 percent this year, reversing the 3.5 percent contraction that it saw in 2020, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects in its latest global economic forecast.
Growth will also be boosted by the continued strong economic rebound in China, as well as by policy support in large economies such as the United States and Japan. In addition, the roll-out of coronavirus vaccines could boost economic activity in the second half of the year.
The 2021 growth forecast was revised up 0.3 percentage points from its previous forecast in October, while last year’s economic contraction was 0.9 percentage points less than previously projected, according to the World Economic Outlook update, published on Tuesday.
However, economic activity remains well below pre-pandemic levels. “Even with the anticipated recovery in 2021-22, output gaps are not expected to close until after 2022,” the IMF report says.
China, the world’s second-largest economy, is expected to maintain its “strong recovery”, with growth seen hitting 8.1 percent this year following its “effective containment measures, a forceful public investment response, and central bank liquidity support”, the IMF said. The new forecast is 0.1 percentage point lower than it was in the October forecast.
China returned to the pre-pandemic activity levels in the fourth quarter of 2020, well ahead of the other countries as a result of strong infrastructure spending and aggressive credit provision from the central bank, said Malhar Nabar, a division chief at IMF’s research department, said at a press conference introducing the report.
“In terms of securing that recovery path, it’s likely important [for China] to ensure that the rebalancing towards private consumption continues and perhaps even accelerates to an extent,” said Nahar, adding that strengthening the social security net to bring down households’ precautionary savings so that they increase spending and enacting structural reforms to deregulate key sectors to bring in more private investment would also help China to lift its growth in the medium term.
These plans include US President Joe Biden’s new US$1.9 trillion stimulus package proposal and the US$900 billion rescue package approved in December; Japan’s deployment of US$3 trillion worth of economic packages; and the unlocking of the European Union’s stimulus plan, a 900 billion euro (US$857 million) war chest set up by the bloc to support economies hammered by the coronavirus crisis, the IMF said.
The roll-out of vaccines to combat the coronavirus pandemic is also expected to play a key role in helping the global economic recovery. “The softening [of growth] in early 2021 is expected to give way to rising momentum in the second quarter as vaccines and therapies become more readily available, allowing contact-intensive activity to strengthen,” the IMF said.
While the volume of global trade is forecast to grow by about 8 percent in 2021, the international financial institution does not anticipate a quick pickup in the services trade, which has been among the sectors hardest hit by the pandemic, as a result of “subdued cross-border tourism and business travel”.
The pandemic is likely to have a long-lasting effect on low-income groups, the IMF said, with the public health crisis expected to reverse the progress made in reducing poverty over the past two decades.
“Close to 90 million people are likely to fall below the extreme poverty threshold during 2020-21,” the IMF warned.
- source : International Monetary Fund (IMF)
