November, the U.S. Election Uncertainty

Nowadays who is in the world who does not believe that U.S. President Donald Trump’s political fate is tied with developments and variants like the Coronavirus, anti-racism protests, economic crises resulted from unemployment, the downtrend statistics on gross domestic product (GDP) and the tension between the U.S. and China?

IRAN NEWS POLITICAL DESK

Despite all these factors, one cannot definitely say Trump’s Democrat rival in the election Joe Biden is the winner of November 3 election  and should wait and see how these variants show themselves in the upcoming days and probably some new variants may emerge in the U.S. political scene which can eclipse the November 3 election.

Former U.S. Defense Secretary General James Mattis, who had avoided criticizing Mr. Trump since his dismissal from his post, has recently in an interview with The Atlantic magazine opened up his criticism and launched an unprecedented attack on Trump and implicitly accused him of trying to divide the U.S. (he means the collapse of the federative system). He implicitly says this concern has spread among layers of the Republicans that consequences of continuing aggressive behavior against the protesters in the riot-hit states as well as disputable management of the Coronavirus and continuation of the current unpleasant economic condition can go beyond a defeat for Trump and they may also lose in the elections for the Congress and even lose the majority in the Senate.

In dealing with protests, Mr. Trump has taken a militaristic approach and has asked armed forces to interfere and put an end to the protests, and in order to deceive the public, he along with his Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley visited St. John’s Church near the White House and by holding a Bible tried to employ the elements of army’s force and religion’s hypocrisy to serve the politics. Of course, his effort did not work because of disclosures of opposition media and it faced a backlash from the military men and Catholic clerics not only in the U.S. but also in the Christian world.

Trump’s behavior is going to put the U.S. Army in a position to defy his orders regarding the confrontation with the protesters. This issue made even Esper and Milley to stand against Trump against his idea of using the armed forces for ending the protests. Disobedience of Army from the president has cost him very dear and has created a condition that even he may dismiss his current Defense Secretary, Mr. Esper. Along with all negative variants for Trump, this issue will worsen his challenges.

Although his suggestion for postponing the November 3 election due to the pandemic was rejected by his Republican partisans and he has been forced to swallow his words, but it is unlikely that if Trump’s defeat paves the ground for defeats of his Republican partisans in the Congress and Senate elections, they may change their minds and resort to such a policy and pretext that the condition is not good for holding election.

Most strategists in the think-tanks in the world and even in the U.S. believe that today the U.S. lacks a stable condition and this condition may lead to more unexpected crises. Even if the elections are postponed, the condition will not progress in Republicans’ favor because the Speaker of the Congress will take the helm of administering the country, something which is not definitely to the benefit of the Republicans.

The Democrats have completely taken advantage of the bewilderment in the White House and in some states they have strengthened their positions by wooing the voters. Both Speaker of Congress Nancy Pelosi and Trump’s rival Biden in their interviews have pointed to the inefficiency of Trump and his camp’s policies in the White House and they have put Trump in more difficult condition.

After the news about resignation of U.S. Special Representative for Iran Mr. Brian Hook, this assumption has been strengthened in the U.S. media that Trump my blame Hook for failure of his policies regarding Iran, and his concern about Iran’s strategic deal with China, resulted by his hardline policies, may push him to stop his hardline measures against Iran and soften his behavior.

The New York Times wrote, “The departure of Mr. Hook, 52, appears to bury any remaining chance of a diplomatic initiative with Iran before the end of Mr. Trump’s term.” According to this report, Elliot Abrams who is currently the U.S. special representative for Venezuela is to replace Hook.

These changes in the policies of the White House are more an indication to this point that the U.S. will lead to more instability in its policies day by day and this instability can loom uncertainty over the November 3 election.

 By: Hamid Reza Naghashian