Trump Impeachment Has No Desirable Result
The gap between approaches of the U.S. Congress and Senate members has created a rough condition for the Democrat Party in the U.S. and one can definitely see that whatever the Democrats have done in the Congress over probing and impeaching President Donald Trump would be undone in the Senate and it will bear no success for the Democrats.
IRAN NEWS POLITICAL DESK
American bimonthly international affairs magazine the National Interest in an article reviewed the process of the U.S. president impeachment and raises this question” Can this process of holding behind-the-closed-door sessions and probes hurt Donald Trump and materialize the Democrats’ goals?’
The writer in his article points to the recent conducted polls where Trump trails all three Democrat presidential candidates. It seems American people want the President to be ousted because of his illegal acts but if the politics is to be based on such matters, now Hillary Clinton should have been the U.S. President. Trump lost the 2016 presidential race to Clinton in two populous states of California and New York but he won the presidential race because of winning the decisive states and could defeat Clinton by gaining majority of electoral votes.
It seems at this stage of presidential election in the U.S., the condition is like the 2016 presidential race and the Republicans are still relying on those decisive states and their supports ultimately to repeat their victory.
This providence of Trump and the Republicans is passing time while presidential candidates of Democrat Party are calling Trump as the most corrupt U.S. President. If the Democrats fail to prove Trump’s offense, their efforts would be translated into their weakness and important blocs of voters will not vote for them.
On the impeachment, the condition in decisive states is the same, and voters likely support impeachment probe but they do not defend Trump’s dismissal because the writer at the end of his article stipulates that Trump’s impeachment likely succeeds in the Democrat-dominated Congress but it will be rejected in the Republican-dominated Senate even if all Democrat members act based on Nancy Pelosi’s demand, only three Republicans may vote in favor of impeachment of Trump while Pelosi needs at least votes of 20 Republicans to impeach Trump. So it is currently apparent that Trump’s impeachment is 17 votes shy of needed votes in the Senate.
Regarding this point, we predict Trump’s current condition in the 2020 U.S. Presidential election better than his rivals and we should wait and see where Trump’s hostility with Iran and his regional policies will move.
With a simple analysis, one can notice some parameters in Trump’s first term in the office. At first, Trump pulled out of the JCPOA in line with Israel to gain its support for election and messed with Europe over milking Saudi Arabia and arms sales. After Iran rejected new round of negotiations, namely the JCPOA, over its missile program and regional policy, Trump decided to resort to military threats. With such a decision, he missed the hit and was again forced to remove the option of military action from the table. He then increased the pressure of sanctions, and reimposition of sanctions not only failed to surrender Iran but also led to gradual recovery of national economy ever since.
At this stage, his only winning card is to support or to plan riots and unrests in the regions in collaboration with Ominous Triangle states in order to weaken Iran to come back to the negotiation table. Suppose this doctrine also does not fulfill Trump’s dreams, the only way is left for Trump will be his return to the JCPOA and giving authority to Europe to transform the goals of the Islamic Revolution. Of course this strategy has chance of success only in President Rouhani’s pro-West government till end of its term.
Between 2020 and 2024, Trump under his businessman-like strategy will definitely have more responses rather than step-by-step policy in companion with Europe.
By: Hamid Reza Naghashian