One of the most important questions which was raised about the failure of Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to Tehran cannot be analyzed as Japan’s unawareness about the probable stand of Iran’s Supreme Leader but it seems the reason behind the failure of Abe’s visit to Tehran can be analyzed in form of two assumptions: First, presenting wrong information and conception about sincerity of the Supreme Leader who says something in public and acts different covertly and supports bargain, and this type of information is usually collected and sent to Tokyo by Japan’s Embassy in Tehran by its agents and staff which strengthen such misinformation; as we have in the past witnessed that Japan’s Embassy in Tehran by paying money to Morteza Firouzi used to get wrong information from him and to send it to Tokyo; Secondly, Abe has bargained with the U.S. President Donald Trump before world’s eyes in order to save his reputation and these two assumptions seem strange and unexpected due to historic relations and interactions of Japan with Iran.

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At the same time, all of us are well aware how badly Japan needs imports of oil from Persian Gulf and actually we should say that Japan’s economic activities lifeline passes through Persian Gulf and this blood is injected into Japan’s economic vein from Persian Gulf and through passing Indian Ocean and South China Sea. In case some incident happens in this vital route, economic activities of Japan will face abundant woes. By the way, Japan faces challenges with tough rivals like South Korea and China which have great hunger for purchasing energy from the Middle East.

Regardless of Japan’s current dependence on Persian Gulf and economic interaction with Iran, this country has had brilliant economic interactions with Iran in the past, of course, one can say during those days Japan was not so dependent on dollar and on the U.S. that it is today.

When I flipped the pages of the history book, I find out that Japan has been Iran’s permanent oil customer since nationalization of oil industry in Iran, and even political ups and downs like war and unilateral sanctions have been unable to make this good customer of Iran’s oil halt its oil purchases.

Regarding this good background in Iran and Japan oil trade, recent U.S. unilateral sanctions, increase in the pressure on Japanese companies and the ground for insecurity and tension in the Middle East have made Japanese feel concerned, and consequently, Japanese companies have staopped buying Iran oil since June and it has created disruption for hydrocarbon products in some major Japanese refineries.

It seems that the Japanese feel repentant for being dragged into the Iran-U.S. political conflict. Before Abe’s visit to Tehran, one of the diplomats in Japan’s Embassy in Tehran had claimed that Abe was not to mediate between Iran and the U.S., and his visit was aimed at deepening Iran-Japan relations but in fact, Abe was carrying a message from Trump and his mission was a mediation and it had been defined as behavioral message between both states and this is considered as a strategic mistake for Abe and his diplomacy body.

On the opposite side, Iran had abundant reasons to cooperate with its Japanese side due to their past experiences and excluded the main incentive of Abe’s visit for setting up relations based on good-will. If Japanese observed it, which could reflect their political independence, today Iran and Japan could be better friends and at the same time U.S. could be more dependent on Japan.

How can one deny that Iran and Japan have had no friendly relations with the least differences possible and if there has been some disputes between them it was because of the U.S.?

Iran is very eager to take advantage of Japan’s technology for developing its industries. At the same time talk for expanding oil and gas fields was one of the top issues on the agenda of talks between Iran and Japan. Undoubtedly, Iran tried to ease ways for bilateral cooperation during Abe’s visit to Tehran. But this important issue was sacrificed by Japan’s strategic mistake and its expectation.

Regarding Japan’s old political history especially in culture, development and political and social maturation, one cannot blame Japanese nation for this strategic mistake because all governments in Japan have always thought of national interests and political independence. And one can see the current strategic mistake of Abe’s government as a political party approach that its leaders sold their national tendencies and goals to the West very cheap.

By: Hamid Reza Naghashian