Andy Storey, the professor of Politics and International Relations of Dublin University believes that Trump’s recklessness may inadvertantly preciptate a faster decline of the US than would otherwise have occurred, and possibly a desire on the part of European elites to create, for example, an independent military capacity.
Rise of Donald Trump changed the face of Washington in eyes of US allies. His non- commitments to the current international order and the management system of its relevant institutions like NATO, UN and many other liberal institutions has scared the Western allies of Washington.
In this regard, many thinkers and political analysts believe in decline of US global hegemony and probable rise of new world and regional powers like China and Iran.
To make this debate more clear, correspondent of Mehr News Agency talked to Andy Storey, the professor of Politics and International Relations of Dublin University.
Following is the full text of this interview:
Many thinkers in International relations like Fareed Zakaia believe that US global hegemony is going to decline thanks to rise of Eastern new actors like China. What is your opinion?
“I think the claimed decline of US hegemony is exaggerated. The US share of world GDP has fallen but some of this is because US corporations are now producing more of their output in other countries, including China – thus, US corporate power is declining less than the national economic data might suggest. Also, the US is probably less of a debtor than, again, the figures might suggest because US individuals and companies keep a lot of assets and income in offshore/unrecorded locations – were these to be counted, the US net debt position would be less severe. In any event, the debt itself gives the US economic leverage – the fact that China, etc. are owned huge sums of money denoninated in US dollars gives the US enormous influence in the world economy. The same is true of the fact that China and other emerging powers depend heavily on the US market for their exports. And, finally, militarily, the US remains overwhelmingly dominant”
In this regard, Prof. John Ikenberry in his article writes that rise of new global actors like China in the current world order shall eliminate the US hegemony. If we accept this assumption, then how such decline will be occurred? How will China be changed to the first superpower while Beijing still is facing many problems relating stability of its economy?
“See my previous response – US hegemony will not be eliminated any time soon! China is of course growing in influence and power, but it is not using that power to pose an ideological or material challenge to US-led global capitalism. China does not demand that its trading and investment partners adopt non-capitalist relations of production (quite the contrary in fact) or in any way reduce their links to the US. So this is not the kind of competitive stance that the old Soviet unionn adopted towards the US”
Some contemporary thinkers and academics also predict the multipolar system for the future nature of the next world order. For example, rise of Iran and Turkey in Middle East will determine the future of the region. In fact, they believe that regional actors will determine the future of new world order. Do you accept this assumption?
“I believe regional actors will probably become more important (Iran seems a good example) but, as discussed above, not in a way that fundamentally seeks to reshape world order. Yes, however, the world is becoming more multipolar”.
As the last question, as you know, non – commitment of Donald Trump to the international treaties such as Paris Agreement or JCPOA has challenged the dignity and reliability of US as a superpower in the current world order. Does Trump’s behavior expand the differences and challenges between US and EU? If yes, how serious will be this challenge?
“I think it is too soon to say for sure. Certainly Trump’s recklessness may inadvertantly preciptate a faster decline of the US than would otherwise have occurred, and possibly a desire on the part of European elites to create, for example, an independent military capacity. But this is not certain, not least because the Trump presidency may be shortlived and the Atlantic alliance rebuilt more firmly by his successor”.
Interview by Vahid Pourtajrishi