U.S.’s View of Iraq

TEHRAN (Iran News) With the holding of parliamentary elections and the process of forming a new parliament scheduled for December 29, 2025, it is natural that the selection of the executive branch will extend into 2026.

The traditional ethno-sectarian balance in Iraq has, based on an unwritten convention since 2003, allocated the position of prime minister to a Shiite, the speakership of parliament to a Sunni, and the presidency to a Kurd.

Election results and ongoing negotiations indicate that Iraq’s future political composition will be shaped around several main axes. Given that no single party or coalition has secured the required majority (165 out of 329 seats), the formation of a government will necessitate broad coalition-building among Shiite, Kurdish, and Sunni groups. Nevertheless, the Shiite Coordination Framework—an alliance composed of the main Shiite parties—holds a total of 187 seats and, under the constitution, has the right to nominate a candidate for the post of prime minister. As such, it will be a key actor in Iraq’s governance.

Both the United States and Iran exert influence over Iraq’s political process. Washington seeks the selection of a prime minister who maintains distance from Iranian influence and from affiliated paramilitary groups. On the other hand, parties close to Iran wield significant influence within the Coordination Framework—an influence that the United States views as an obstacle to the continuation of its presence in Iraq.

Meanwhile, a new Sunni alliance is taking shape, as major Sunni parties have formed a united “National Political Council” to strengthen their bargaining position. At the same time, the two main Kurdish parties—the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)—have yet to reach an agreement on a single candidate for the presidency.

The United States is also paying attention to these two Kurdish currents, hoping that through engagement it might arrange the conditions for sustaining its presence in Iraq.

Many analysts assess Iraq’s political future within the context of continuity along the axis of resistance and consider the prospect of a darker future for the United States in Iraq to be inevitable. The Islamic Republic of Iran and Iraq share inseparable pillars in their relations, which do not tolerate the presence of foreign powers in the region. Although obstacles exist in both countries—such as Western-oriented perspectives—that challenge this path, these ties remain fundamental.