Oil Turbulence Amid Political Currents
TEHRAN (Iran News) This downturn was largely attributed to rising oil production by the OPEC+ alliance and mounting fears of a global economic slowdown—particularly in key markets like China and the United States.
Saudi oil giant Aramco announced a decline in its net profit for the second quarter of 2025, down to $26 billion—a 4.6% drop compared to the same period last year. As a result, the company reduced its performance-based dividends by $10 billion.
In parallel, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projected that the average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for 2025 would hover around $61.81 per barrel. Similarly, HSBC revised its forecast for Brent crude to $68.50 for the year, reflecting a bearish outlook amid growing supply.
Increased output from both OPEC+ and the U.S. shale industry has contributed to a surplus in the oil market. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions have added to market anxieties. American airstrikes on oil infrastructure in Yemen earlier this month stoked fears of potential supply disruptions.
However, a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Houthi forces, reached on May 6, helped ease some of the immediate geopolitical tensions. Still, the oil market remains on edge.
The volatility seen in May may just be a prelude to further instability if ongoing negotiations between Iran and the United States fail to yield meaningful results. Should diplomacy falter, we may well see even greater emotional and financial turbulence ripple through oil markets in the months ahead.
- author : By: Hamid Reza Naqashian
