TEHRAN (Iran News) –The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has ordered the activation of a standby force for possible use against the new military rulers in Niger.

The military, which seized power on July 26, had already defied an August 6 deadline set by ECOWAS to step down. Instead, it has closed Niger’s airspace and vowed to defend the country against any foreign invasion.

The new move has raised major concerns about the consequences of war breaking out in a fragile part of the world, where a conflict could have far-reaching repercussions for the West African region and beyond.

It is certainly a big escalation, which observers believe would bring the armies of Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali together in a military coalition.

Neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso have already warned that a military intervention would be a “declaration of war” on their countries as well.

The prospect of a military intervention in Niger, a fragile nation that ranks among the world’s poorest, has also sparked differing opinions from within ECOWAS and warnings from neighboring Algeria as well as Russia.

On Friday, the 15-member divided West African bloc moved ahead with its planned armed measures, the exact details of which are not yet clear although it has not given up on the hope of a peaceful resolution to the crisis.

An official statement, which included a resolution, called on the bloc’s defense chiefs to “activate the ECOWAS Standby Force with all its elements immediately”.

Another resolution spoke of ordering “the deployment of the ECOWAS Standby Force to restore constitutional order in the Republic of Niger”. This was quickly followed by another that spoke of restoring such order “through peaceful means”.

While ECOWAS leaders have declared that all options are on the table, Ivory Coast’s President Alassane Ouattara has struck a more hawkish tone saying ECOWAS has approved the deployment of a “standby force to restore constitutional order” in Niger and that the intervention will take place as soon as possible.

ECOWAS has yet to officially provide any information on the force to be deployed, how it would be funded, the timetable for action, which countries would participate, or how many troops and what hardware they could contribute against the military officers who seized control of Niger and placed Mohamed Bazoum, the President, under house arrest.

But on his return to Ivory Coast from an emergency summit in Nigeria’s capital Abuja on Thursday, Ouattara said that “the Chiefs of Staff will have other conferences to finalise things but they have the agreement of the Conference of Heads of State for the operation to start as soon as possible.”

According to reports citing Ouattara, Ivory Coast will offer a battalion of 850 to 1,100 soldiers alongside troops from Nigeria and Benin with other countries also participating.

“We are determined to restore President Bazoum to his functions,” he vowed.

Earlier, in Abuja, ECOWAS Commission President Omar Touray had announced the mobilization of the bloc’s force.

Analysts have pointed out that this mobilization, with the required combat readiness, would need weeks to assemble.

In a statement issued on Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken praised the “determination of ECOWAS to explore all options”.

Blinken also told reporters earlier on Thursday that the bloc was “playing a key role in making clear the imperative of a return to constitutional order, and we very much support ECOWAS’ leadership and work on this.”

Former colonial power France has pledged to provide its “full support to all the conclusions” ECOWAS reached, the French Foreign Ministry said.

Despite the threat of a conflict breaking out, Niger’s new military rulers have moved to consolidate their power and highlighted further defiance by appointing a new government.

The 21-member cabinet will be headed by a civilian Prime Minister, Ali Mahaman Lamine Zeine, with generals from the new military governing council placed in charge of the defense and interior ministries.

In Abuja, Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu, who chaired the emergency meeting, said, “All is not lost yet” for a “peaceful solution, as a roadmap to restore democracy and stability”.

But he added that “no option is taken off the table, including the use of force as a last resort.”

The bloc has pledged to enforce sanctions, travel bans, and asset freezes on those preventing the return to power of Bazoum.

Before the closed-door talks, Tinubu had insisted that “we prioritise diplomatic negotiations and dialogue as the bedrock of our approach”.

Also, before the second emergency ECOWAS summit in as many weeks, Tinubu acknowledged that imposing “the seven-day ultimatum we issued during the first summit has not yielded the desired outcome.”

“We must engage all parties involved, including the coup leaders, in earnest discussions to convince them to relinquish power and reinstate President Bazoum,” Tinubu added.

West African states in the Sahel region are battling extremist militancy that erupted in northern Mali in 2012, spread to Niger and Burkina Faso in 2015, and is now causing tension in states on the Gulf of Guinea.

Mali and Burkina Faso have already forced French forces out of their soil, denouncing France for fueling insecurity among their people, an accusation that Paris has rejected.

Niger made similar accusations against former colonial power France as well as the United States.

Both Western states have major military bases as well as troops stationed in Niger under the pretext of combating militants.

Critics accuse the U.S. and France of trying to cling on to Niger because it is a major uranium producer (a crucial material for nuclear power), while also attempting to halt the shift of neighboring states swinging to Russia for support.

The threat of an invasion has raised fears of a similar scenario to that of Libya, with broader fighting that could drag on for many years and at the same time slip into a dire humanitarian crisis.

Views on the ground in Niger 

In Niger’s capital Niamey there appears to be a mixed feeling of defiance, anger and calls for dialogue.

Speaking to Reuters, civil society activist Ibrahim Bana said, “We must call this intervention what it is: an aggression against our people. No ECOWAS text authorizes Heads of State to decide to send troops into a member country for any reason whatsoever.”

Another civil society activist Gamatche Moumouni said, “ECOWAS needs to understand what the people of the various member countries expect of it. What is expected of ECOWAS is to attack the causes of coups d’état, not the consequences.”

A Niamey resident, Amadou Moussa, believes that “ECOWAS should seek to unite, not wage war against us.”

A banker, Oluwadamilola Ijamayowa, wants dialogue. “Let’s come to the round table and talk. Because of the human resources there, we don’t want anything to happen,” he said, adding that “Nigeria and Niger, we are brothers and we share the same border. There is an interrelationship between Nigerian and Nigerien, and even apart from that, we are Africa, we are in the same continent. We should not be like other continents who do not see their brothers as their brother. Nigeriens are our brothers, and we should be our brother’s keeper.”

An accountant, Francis Emezi, accused the United States, saying “The U.S. has spent more than one billion dollars fighting a war that does not concern it. So, for them, it is a loss of economic benefit. We should be looking at it from the same angle. Nigeria should not waste its resources by going to fight in Niger. Rather, we should encourage them to employ diplomacy and solve their problem internally.”

The threat of an invasion, though not specific, will keep tensions very high in and around Niger.