While only few days have passed since dismissal of U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton, some analysts have pointed to the unsuccessful talks with North Korea as a reason for Bolton’s elimination from the U.S. government and some other analysts blamed failure in talks with Taliban in Afghanistan. But one should study and analyze what […]
While only few days have passed since dismissal of U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton, some analysts have pointed to the unsuccessful talks with North Korea as a reason for Bolton’s elimination from the U.S. government and some other analysts blamed failure in talks with Taliban in Afghanistan. But one should study and analyze what reasons were really behind Bolton’s elimination from the White House.
IRAN NEWS POLITICAL DESK
American newspaper New York Times in an article on Bolton’s resignation wrote, “The disparity between President Trump and his national security advisor had climaxed in recent days because of failure in creating a prestigious scenario in talks with Taliban, and at the same time Mike Pence’s support for Bolton’s stands had been fanning the flame of anger in Trump’s day by day and hour by hour. Because such supports strengthened Bolton’s stand in decision-making and imposing the political viewpoints which were more like Netanyahu’s viewpoints rather than Trump’s.”
Of course such reasons were enough for elimination of the controversial figure, John Bolton, from the White House but the truth is something else because Mr. Trump is waiting eagerly to meet with Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meeting ,and to this end and to take a photo with Mr. Rouhani, he has been pushed to détente and with taking into considerations all of these developments, one can likely say Bolton’s elimination was a gift to Iran and the U.S. policies were considered seriously as distancing from Zionist policies.
Bolton was the one who was after regime change in the Islamic Republic of Iran and during this year’s meeting with outlaw Iranian grouplet MKO in Paris had vowed to celebrate the collapse of regime in Iran by the yearend. But they stuck in the mud and failed in materializing this dream and it was natural that Bolton’s advisors sounded warning to him that Iranian officials would never come to negotiation table as long as Bolton was in charge.
So elimination of Bolton was a well-calculated move and it can be evaluated as a gift for probable meeting with President Rouhani in New York. That how this decision and removal of Bolton had its positive impacts on financial markets and at the same time it is considered as a move for détente is another important point and it can be analyzed from the angle of its impacts on domestic and international markets.
Some markets like oil market saw stability in the oil price with an optimistic prospect for reducing political tensions in the Middle East, and immediately showed its impact on the stability in the market. Of course hours later, oil prices bounced back a little. On the U.S. domestic front, some believed that Bolton’s dismissal would boost the pace of forex rate and it became a ground for strengthening stock markets especially for auto industry. That this Trump’s decision and Bolton’s dismissal could lead to a probable meeting between him and Mr. Rouhani and thaw in Tehran-Washington relation is another important issue, and most analysts believe that this can be an explicit signal in change in relations between both countries. If we have a look at recent developments, we can see the White House has started to retreat from its demands from Iran and in return, Iran’s reaction is very crucial.
If Mr. Rouhani has reached a political maturation, he will announce that he would not travel to New York and instead, he would dispatch Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif or his deputy Mr. Seyed Abbas Araqchi to the UN General Assembly meeting and it will pave the ground for getting more concessions from the White House and Mr. Trump.
Mr. Rouhani and his diplomatic team should know that today Iran has upper hand and this upper hand in the prudence and hope government’s demands, although it has showed neither prudence nor hope, should push Mr. Trump back to the JCPOA and if we change this upper hand with just a childish and unwise meeting in New York, we would concede totally a definite win to the rival.
By: Hamid Reza Naghashian
