TEHRAN (Iran News) In its latest report released on Tuesday, the Washington-based lender projected that gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAAP) region will reach 2.8% in 2024, up from the 2.6% growth rate it forecast in April. The bank attributed this modest upgrade largely to the faster-than-anticipated easing of oil production limits in Gulf countries and to the ongoing expansion of non-oil sectors such as trade, construction, and services.

The report highlighted that the outlook for oil-importing nations in the region has also brightened. Improved private consumption, stronger investment flows, and better performance in agriculture and tourism have driven this positive shift.

However, the World Bank cautioned that the picture is far less optimistic for developing oil-exporting countries, many of which continue to grapple with geopolitical tensions and volatility in oil production levels. These factors are expected to weigh heavily on growth in the year ahead.

Iran’s economy, in particular, faces renewed challenges. While the bank had forecast modest growth for the country in its April outlook, the new report predicts a slowdown in Iran’s GDP, pointing to the continued impact of international sanctions on both oil and non-oil exports. These restrictions, the report said, are curbing Iran’s ability to benefit fully from recent regional improvements.

The broader region remains deeply affected by ongoing conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, the West Bank and Gaza, as well as Afghanistan. The World Bank noted that these crises have led to severe humanitarian emergencies, mass displacement, and sharp economic contractions in the affected countries.

“Neighboring nations are also bearing the brunt of these conflicts,” the report said, citing economic disruptions, refugee inflows, and heightened insecurity as major spillover effects. These challenges, it added, continue to pose risks to stability and growth across the region.

The new assessment underscores the uneven nature of the region’s economic recovery. While energy-rich Persian Gulf states are benefiting from higher oil output and diversification efforts, and some oil-importing economies are regaining momentum through domestic reforms and revived tourism, the combination of geopolitical instability, refugee pressures, and sanctions continues to limit the region’s overall growth potential.

The report offers a mixed picture: a cautiously brighter short-term outlook for the region as a whole, but persistent structural and political headwinds that continue to weigh on the prospects of key economies, including Iran.

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After the IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva last week warned over the economic condition in 2023 and said: “The global economy faces “a tough year, tougher than the year we leave behind.” “We expect one-third of the world economy to be in recession,” Georgieva told CBS’s ‘Face the Nation’ in an interview aired Jan. 1. “Why? Because the three big economies — U.S., EU, China — are all slowing down simultaneously.”

Now the World Bank has such a forecast for 2023 and has warned the world over a tough economic condition for 2023.

The World Bank in its latest report slashed its 2023 growth forecasts to levels teetering on the brink of recession for many countries as the impact of central bank rate hikes intensifies, Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, and the world’s major economic engines sputter.

The development lender said it now expected global GDP growth of 1.7% in 2023 — the slowest pace outside the 2009 and 2020 recessions in nearly three decades. In its previous Global Economic Prospects report, in June 2022, the bank had forecast 2023 global growth at 3.0%.

The bank said major slowdowns in advanced economies, including sharp cuts to its forecast to 0.5% for both the United States and the euro zone, could foreshadow a new global recession less than three years after the last one.

“Given fragile economic conditions, any new adverse development — such as higher-than-expected inflation, abrupt rises in interest rates to contain it, a resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic or escalating geopolitical tensions — could push the global economy into recession,” the bank said in a statement accompanying the report.

The bleak outlook will be especially hard on emerging market and developing economies, the World Bank said, as they struggle with heavy debt burdens, weak currencies and income growth, and slowing business investment that is now forecast at a 3.5% annual growth rate over the next two years — less than half the pace of the past two decades.

“Weakness in growth and business investment will compound the already devastating reversals in education, health, poverty and infrastructure and the increasing demands from climate change,” World Bank President David Malpass said in a statement.

China’s growth in 2022 slumped to 2.7%, its second slowest pace since the mid-1970s after 2020, as zero-COVID restrictions, property market turmoil and drought hit consumption, production and investment, the World Bank report said. It predicted a rebound to 4.3% for 2023, but that is 0.9 percentage-point below the June forecast due to the severity of COVID disruptions and weakening external demand.

The World Bank noted that some inflationary pressures started to abate as 2022 drew to a close, with lower energy and commodity prices, but warned that risks of new supply disruptions were high, and elevated core inflation may persist. This could cause central banks to respond by raising policy rates by more than currently expected, worsening the global slowdown, it added.

The bank called for increased support from the international community to help low-income countries deal with food and energy shocks, people displaced by conflicts, and a growing risk of debt crises. It said new concessional financing and grants are needed along with the leveraging of private capital and domestic resources to help boost investment in climate adaptation, human capital and health, the report said.

The report comes as the World Bank’s board this week is expected to consider a new “evolution road map” for the institution to vastly expand its lending capacity to address climate change and other global crises. The plan will guide negotiations with shareholders, led by the United States, for the biggest revamp in the bank’s business model since its creation at the end of World War Two.

Although both the IMF and World Bank have criticized big economies but the question is who should be blamed for such a chaotic economic condition in the world.

The answer can be found in the West’s behavior which ignited the Russia-Ukraine war which caused chaos in any economic component in the world. The war worsened the fuel and food conditions for the world and it led to recession and inflation in most countries even in the Western ones and unfortunately those who have been behind such economic chaos just think of getting their own countries and nations out of this crisis and they give no damn to the other nations.

The West instead of trying to encourage Ukraine and Russia to stop war and make peace fans the flame of war and as long as the war goes on, one cannot expect any major economic serenity to return to the world and in between those countries which are weaker will suffer more and those who should be blamed for the current economic crisis make money by selling weapons to the warring side.

The United Nations should take serious and fair action to restore peace otherwise the condition will get worse and this crisis may also continue in 2024 and many people in the world would suffer from fuel and food shortages because of high prices.

And if the international economic bodies seek a solution to improve the global economic condition, they are better step up pressure on the countries which back war in any part of the world because war has no actual winner and anybody is loser of war.

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According to the mentioned report, Iran’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is going to continue its positive growth over the next two fiscal years (2022-2024), expanding by 2.2 and 2.3 percent, respectively.

“Despite an initial COVID-19 induced shock to GDP, a strong rebound in mid2020 led to a modest economic expansion in 2020/2021. The COVID-19 output loss since Feb 2020 was less pronounced [in Iran] than in other countries,” the report stated.

Based on the report, the inflation in the country will also decrease over the next three fiscal years. The bank sees the inflation to stand at 29.3 percent in the current Iranian calendar year (ends on March 21, 2022), while the figure is seen falling to 21.7 percent and 18.6 percent over the next two years.

The positive growth of the Iranian economy comes at a time when most of the countries around the world are facing sharp declines in their economic growth due to the negative impacts of the pandemic.

This achievement becomes more significant considering the fact that in addition to the negative impacts of the pandemic, the Islamic Republic has been tackling severe economic pressure imposed on the country due to the U.S. sanctions.

Back in January, the World Bank had predicted a 1.5 percent GDP growth for Iran in 2021.

“Growth in the Islamic Republic of Iran is expected to recover as domestic consumption and tourism begin to normalize, and disruptions related to COVID-19 taper,” the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects (GEP) report released in late January stated.

In January 2020, the bank had predicted a 1.1 percent GDP growth for Iran in 2020 and 2021.

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“In the Islamic Republic of Iran, growth is forecast to recover by 2.1 percent in 2021 and 2.2 percent in 2022 with a rebound in industrial production outweighing continued suppressed demand for services due to a high number of COVID-19 cases,” the report stated.

According to the World Bank, the Iranian economy also exceeded expectations in the previous Iranian calendar year (ended on March 20) as the country’s industrial and productive sectors grew significantly against all the odds.

“The Islamic Republic of Iran avoided an expected contraction in the fiscal year 2020/21, which ended in March, with both the oil and non-oil sectors rebounding in the second half of the year, benefiting from higher oil prices and currency depreciation, respectively,” the institute said in its report.

According to the mentioned report, Iran’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is going to continue its positive growth in 2023, expanding by 2.3 percent.

In January, the bank had predicted a 1.5 percent GDP growth for Iran in the current year and a 1.7 percent growth for 2022; the current estimation of Iranian economic growth is 0.7 percent better than the entity’s previous estimations.

World Bank also sees the global economy rebounding in the current year, although most developing economies are expected to lag behind due to the negative impacts of the pandemic.

“The global economy is expected to expand 5.6 percent in 2021, the fastest post-recession pace in 80 years, largely on strong rebounds from a few major economies,” the report said.

Based on the report, many emerging markets and developing economies will continue to struggle with the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath.

Despite the recovery, global output will be about two percent below pre-pandemic projections by the end of this year. Per capita income losses will not be unwound by 2022 for about two-thirds of emerging market and developing economies.

Among low-income economies, where vaccination has lagged, the effects of the pandemic have reversed poverty reduction gains and aggravated insecurity and other long-standing challenges, the report stated.

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Addressing a G24 meeting on Monday, Hemmati said: “Demands are expected to be met without discrimination and not under the influence of political lobbies.”

He stressed the need for unbiased support of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and called for inclusive cooperation to transfer the technology of producing drugs for the COVID-19 and the distribution of the drug.

“Presently, what is very vital and important is global cooperation and the transfer of technical knowledge in the production and possibility of equitable production and distribution of vaccines at reasonable prices,” he said.

Hemmati further said that there were morally no limitations to export COVID vaccines and the relevant medical equipment.

“IMF and WB have a key role to play in supporting member countries to mitigate the health and economic effects of the pandemic and the various stages of recovery,” he noted.

Hemmati that the IMF was expected to fulfill the members’ legal demands, away from any political lobbies and pressures.

He underscored that the IMF must have sufficient resources to meet the large financial needs of its members in the event of a crisis.

The G24 meeting was chaired by Hemmati in the presence of the heads of the IMF and the WB, and the heads of the member central banks.

Examining the global economy, contributing to the economic recovery of developing countries after the Coronavirus Pandemic, and promoting cooperation between members were the main topics of the meeting.

How to support international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and multilateral development banks from developing countries and increase low-interest loans to these countries and delay previous loans were also among the most important topics discussed at the meeting.

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The World Bank on Thursday adopted a plan to aid China with $1 billion to $1.5 billion in low-interest loans annually through June 2025. The plan calls for lending to “gradually decline” from the previous five-year average of $1.8 billion.

“Why is the World Bank loaning money to China? Can this be possible? China has plenty of money, and if they don’t, they create it. STOP!” Trump wrote in a post on Twitter.

“World Bank lending to China has fallen sharply and will continue to reduce as part of our agreement with all our shareholders including the United States,” the World Bank said in an emailed statement to Reuters.

“We eliminate lending as countries get richer.”

Spokespeople for the White House declined to comment on the record.

The World Bank loan to China worths $1.3 billion in the fiscal 2019 year, which ended on June 30, a decrease from around $2.4 billion in fiscal 2017.

But the fall in the World Bank’s loans to China is not swift enough for the Trump administration, which has argued that Beijing is too wealthy for international aid.

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TEHRAN (Iran News) – In its latest report, World Bank (WB) forecast that Iran’s economy will move out of downturn in 2020.

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