The Investor’s Business Daily tracking poll results released Tuesday have Biden ahead nationally by just 2.3 percentage points, at 48.1 percent to Trump’s 45.8 percent among likely voters.

The daily poll, which includes Green and Libertarian candidates, launched on Oct. 12 and has found increasing support for Trump and decreasing support for Biden going into Nov. 3’s Election Day.

Just a week ago, on Oct. 13, the poll found Biden sailing with an 8.6 percentage-point lead.

IBD said Trump is closing a gap among independents and has benefited from stronger support among Republicans than Biden has among Democrats. Biden held 90 percent support among Democrats in the latest poll, compared to 94 percent of Republicans backing Trump, the New York Post reported.

But IBD said Trump is lagging among elderly voters and those in the suburbs, groups that helped him win in 2016.

Investor’s Business Daily is widely regarded as a credible pollster, given an “A/B” grade by polling-focused news site fivethirtyeight.com.

In 2016, IBD’s poll was one of the few to predict Trump’s win — a shocking upset that caught most media and politics professionals off-guard. Its final 2016 poll found Trump ahead by 1.6 points. Ultimately, Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by 2.1 points, but won the Electoral College 304-227 thanks to narrow wins in many states.

The RealClearPolitics average of recent national polls has Biden ahead by 7.6 percent, though in many swing states, the margin is tighter. Trump allies believe he has many “silent voters” who won’t publicly admit their support but will show up to vote.

The Biden campaign released a memo Saturday warning that Trump can “still win the race” and is “neck and neck” in several battleground states, where the incumbent is hosting daily mega-rallies and where Biden’s campaign got off to a late ground game amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Even the best polling can be wrong and that variables like turnout mean that in a number of critical swing states we are fundamentally tied,” Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon wrote in a three-page message.

“If we learned anything from 2016, it’s that we cannot underestimate Donald Trump or his ability to claw his way back into contention in the final days of a campaign, through whatever smears or underhanded tactics he has at his disposal.”

The move comes one day after the nonpartisan Commission on Presidential Debates announced the debate would be held virtually, following the president’s diagnosis of and hospitalization for the novel coronavirus.

“On October 8, CPD announced that for the health and safety of all involved, the second presidential debate, scheduled for October 15 in Miami, would be conducted virtually,” the CPD said in a statement, officially announcing the cancellation of the debate. “Subsequently, the campaigns of the two candidates who qualified for participation in the debate made a series of statements concerning their respective positions regarding their willingness to participate in a virtual debate on October 15, and each now has announced alternate plans for that date.”

“It is now apparent there will be no debate on October 15, and the CPD will turn its attention to preparations for the final presidential debate scheduled for October 22,” the CPD added.

Immediately after that announcement was made about a virtual debate Thursday morning, Trump said in an interview with Fox Business anchor Maria Bartiromo he would not “waste my time with a virtual debate” and was not going to participate.

The Trump campaign later Thursday said the president would participate if the debate — as well as the third scheduled debate — were pushed back a week. The Biden campaign shot down that idea, noting the dates had been decided in June.

With Trump refusing to participate to a virtual format, Biden agreed to participate in an ABC News town hall moderated by ABC News Chief Anchor George Stephanopoulos in Philadelphia on Oct. 15, the original date of the second debate, taking questions directly from voters.

Trump also scheduled his own town hall event for the night. He’ll be taking part in an event aired on NBC Thursday night in Miami, sources familiar told ABC News.

Biden’s reacted to the cancellation of the second presidential debate in a statement through a spokesperson, calling it “shameful” that Trump “ducked the only debate in which the voters get to ask questions.”

“Vice President Biden looks forward to making his case to the American people about how to overcome this pandemic, restore American leadership and our alliances in the world, and bring the American people together,” campaign spokesman Andrew Bates said. “It’s shameful that Donald Trump ducked the only debate in which the voters get to ask the questions — but it’s no surprise. Everyone knows that Donald Trump likes to bully reporters, but obviously he doesn’t have the guts to answer for his record to voters at the same time as Vice President Biden.”

Trump 2020 communications director Tim Murtaugh slammed the “biased commission” for canceling the Oct 15 debate, saying “there’s no medical reason to stop” it.

“There’s nothing that says that President Trump and Joe Biden can’t debate together without the overlords at the commission having a say in the matter,” Murtaugh added. “We would be glad to debate one-on-one without the commission’s interference.”

Trump is also expected to host an event at the White House on Saturday, the first day his doctor cleared him to participate in “public engagements,” and a rally in Sanford, Florida, on Monday.

Both candidates have agreed to participate in the next debate, moderated by Kristen Welker of NBC News, on Oct. 22.

“When someone is trying to humiliate or insult the incumbent head of state they anyway elevate you and me and talk about our incredible influence and might. To a certain degree, this plays into our hands,” Putin said in an interview with Rossiya-24 TV channel on Wednesday.

The Russian president stated that Moscow is not interfering in the US election campaign, it is up to voters to make their choice about the candidates.

“Voters, in this case US citizens, should evaluate the positions of the candidates running for president of such a great world power, frankly speaking, like the United States,” he commented.

“We are uninvolved onlookers, we are not interfering,” the Russian leader noted.

“It is none of our business, after all, let them deal with each other as they see fit based on the developments unfolding,” he added.

Touching on the acrimony from both sides and the mud-slinging between the candidates during the current campaign, Putin labelled it all as “manifestations of the level of political culture or lack thereof.” “However, I repeat, we are not going to get involved in this. That is all determined by domestic political processes, domestic political issues and US matters,” the Russian president stressed.

Putin said that Russia is willing to work with any American president who will be elected by the citizens of the United States. “We will be ready to work with any future US president, with that person who the American people will vest their trust in.”

Putin pointed out that there were many pluses and minuses in bilateral relations during Trump’s term in the office.

Speaking about the positives, in particular, he lauded the increased trade volume and stabilization on energy markets, while among the negatives, Putin mentioned the sanctions and Washington’s pullout from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. “(Presidential) candidate (Joe) Biden has publicly said that he is ready to extend New START (Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms – TASS) or to sign a new treaty on limiting strategic offensive arms,” the Russian leader noted. “Now, this is a serious element of our potential future cooperation.”

With four weeks to go before Election Day Nov. 3, more than 3.8 million Americans already have voted, far surpassing about 75,000 at this time in 2016, according to the US Elections Project, which compiles early voting data.

The shift has been driven by an expansion of early and mail-in voting in many states as a safe way to cast a ballot during the coronavirus pandemic and an eagerness to weigh in on the political future of Trump, said Michael McDonald of the University of Florida, who administers the project.

“We’ve never seen this many people voting so far ahead of an election,” McDonald said. “People cast their ballots when they make up their minds, and we know that many people made up their minds long ago and already have a judgment about Trump”, Reuters reported.

The early surge has led McDonald to predict a record turnout of about 150 million, representing 65 percent of eligible voters, the highest rate since 1908.

Biden leads Trump in national opinion polls, although surveys in crucial battleground states indicate a tighter race.

The numbers reported so far come from 31 states, McDonald said, and will grow rapidly as more states begin early in-person voting and report absentee mail-in totals in the next few weeks. All but about a half-dozen states allow some level of early in-person voting.

The percentage of voters who cast their ballot at a voting machine on Election Day already had been in steady decline before this year, according to the US Election Assistance Commission.

The total number of early or mail-in votes more than doubled from nearly 25 million in 2004 to 57 million in 2016, it said, representing an increase from one in five of all ballots cast to two in five of all ballots cast.

Trump has repeatedly railed against mail-in voting, making unfounded accusations that it leads to fraud. Experts say fraud is rare.

Those attacks by the president have shown signs of depressing Republican interest in voting by mail. Democrats have more than doubled the number of returned mail-in ballots by Republicans in seven states that report voter registration data by party, according to the Elections Project.

In the crucial battleground state of Florida, Democrats have requested more than 2.4 million mail-in ballots and returned 282,000, while Republicans have asked for nearly 1.7 million and returned more than 145,000.

A national Reuters/Ipsos poll taken last week found 5 percent of Democrats nationwide said they had already voted compared to 2 percent of Republicans. About 58 percent of Democrats planned to vote early compared to 40 percent of Republicans.

McDonald said early voting typically starts strong, then drops before surging just ahead of the election. But in some states, the rates of participation already have skyrocketed a month out.

In South Dakota, early voting is nearly 23 percent of the total turnout in 2016. It is nearly 17 percent of total 2016 turnout in Virginia and nearly 15 percent of total 2016 turnout in the battleground state of Wisconsin.

“That’s just nuts,” McDonald said. “Every piece of data suggests very high turnout for this election. I think that’s just a given.”

The survey found that Biden leads Trump in Pennsylvania by 7 percentage points, garnering 49 percent support among respondents in the state, compared to Trump’s 42 percent. Biden leads Trump in Florida by a slightly smaller margin, 47 percent support to 42 percent.

Survey interviews began Wednesday prior to the announcement early Friday morning that the president and first lady Melania Trump tested positive for COVID-19.

There was a modest shift in favor of Biden during survey interviews conducted on Friday following the news of Trump’s diagnosis, according to the Times.

The races in the two battleground states, both of which Trump won narrowly in the 2016 election, had been particularly close prior to Tuesday’s debate, although an ABC-Washington Post poll released Tuesday showed Biden ahead by 9 percentage points in Pennsylvania.

Last week, RealClearPolitics reported that Biden had a 1.3-point lead in Florida, down from 8.4 percentage points in July.

The Times-Siena College poll also found that only 21 percent of likely voters across the two swing states said Trump won the debate Tuesday, with 65 percent disapproving of the president’s conduct throughout the evening.

An additional 48 percent said they “support Trump less after” the debate.

Many Democrats and others criticized Trump’s behavior during Tuesday’s debate, during which he repeatedly interrupted Biden and moderator Chris Wallace. The Commission on Presidential Debates has since announced it is considering changes to future debate formats “to ensure a more orderly discussion of the issues.”

A Hill-HarrisX poll conducted after this week’s presidential debate but before Trump announced he had tested positive for the coronavirus found Biden leading Trump nationally by 7 percentage points, a 2-point increase from the last poll conducted Sept. 19-21.

Among those in the Hill-HarrisX poll who watched the debate, 56 percent said that Biden performed better compared to 43 percent who said the same for Trump.

The New York Times-Siena College Research Institute survey of Pennsylvania and Florida was conducted via landline and cellular telephones over varying field periods from Sept. 30 through Oct. 2.

The margin of error due to sampling on the full survey was plus or minus 4.2 percentage points in Florida, and 4.1 percentage points in Pennsylvania, according to the newspaper.

Thirty-seven percent of Republican registered voters in the Sept. 21-22 survey said the 2020 election will probably be rigged, while 36 percent of Democratic voters said the same.

Independents were slightly more inclined to say the election will be rigged, at 40 percent.

Similarly, 38 percent of respondents overall said they believe the election would likely be manipulated, and 17 percent of voters said it will definitely be rigged.

While both Democrats and Republicans may agree on the possibility of a rigged election, Mallory Newall, director of research at Ipsos, says the reasons behind that agreement vary.

“Democrats tend to be more concerned about voter suppression and foreign interference,” Newall told Hill.TV.

“Republicans on the other hand, tend to be more concerned about voter fraud and how voting by mail can impact that,” she added.

The Hill-HarrisX poll was conducted online among 943 registered voters between Sept. 21 and 22. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.19 percentage points.

“Well, we’re going to have to see what happens,” Trump said on Wednesday when asked directly whether he would commit to a peaceful transition, assuming he lost the election, the USA Today reported.

“You know that I’ve been complaining very strongly about the ballots and the ballots are a disaster,” Trump told reporters, referring to state where ballots are mailed automatically to registered voters. “Get rid of the ballots and you’ll have a very a peaceful – there won’t be a transfer, frankly, there’ll be a continuation.”

Democratic candidate Joe Biden was asked about Trump’s comments Wednesday night.

“What country are we in? I’m being facetious,” Biden said, adding, “Look, he says the most irrational things. I don’t know what to say.”

In the past Trump has declined to say whether he would accept voters’ results, suggesting he wants to leave his options open to contest those results.

Trump has also repeatedly joked at rallies that he would seek more than two terms, a line he uses to show how he “triggers” outrage about his Democratic critics.

Trump’s latest remarks drew a firestorm of criticism on Twitter. The peaceful transfer of power between US presidential administration is a hallmark of the country’s stability.

“People who are very chill about the president not committing to the peaceful transfer of power unless they ‘get rid of the ballots’ are too chill for me,” tweeted Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii. “This seems an awfully serious thing to be dismissive about. At the very least it’s a good reason to oppose him vigorously.”

GOP Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah also responded on Twitter.

“Fundamental to democracy is the peaceful transition of power; without that, there is Belarus,” Romney tweeted. “Any suggestion that a president might not respect this Constitutional guarantee is both unthinkable and unacceptable.”

Joe Lockhart, a former spokesman to President Bill Clinton, suggested that every Democratic member of Congress send a letter to the president “demanding he commit to the peaceful transition of power in writing. If he won’t, impeachment is a viable option.”

“People don’t like her. Nobody likes her. She could never be the first woman president. She could never be. That would be an insult to our country,” Trump told a crowd of supporters in North Carolina, The Hill reported.

The US president’s commentary drew applause from his backers in Winston-Salem. The remarks came as part of a broader attack on the Democratic ticket, which Trump argued would “cripple” the country’s economy.

Trump launched a similar attack on the prospect that Harris could ascend to the presidency two weeks ago, saying at a New Hampshire rally that he hoped to see the first woman president, but that it shouldn’t be Harris because “she’s not competent.”

Harris is the first woman of color nominated to a major party’s presidential ticket. She has been an ardent Trump critic as a senator, and she has assumed the role of attack dog in her first campaign appearances since being nominated as the Democratic vice presidential pick.

Trump has frequently attacked the senator since she was named to the Democratic ticket last month. He has regularly derided her as “nasty,” complaining about her tough questioning of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh during Senate Judiciary Committee hearings and citing her criticisms of Joe Biden during the 2019 Democratic debates.

He also entertained a false and racist conspiracy theory about her eligibility for the vice presidency after it was first raised in a Newsweek op-ed.

Trump’s dismissive tone toward some women has drawn criticism that he uses sexist language, and he has struggled to win over female voters in recent months, according to several polls.

“Interfering in US election is one of the ridiculous claims that the Americans have been rising recently with respect to the blurry prospect of elections in their country,” Mousavi told reporters on Monday.

Iran does not care much about parties and factions in the US, he said, adding, “What we care about is their behavior and the way they interact with us.”

The comments came after Reuters claimed in a recent report that Iranian citizens had been receiving text messages in Farsi offering them up to $10 million for information about attempts to interfere with the US election.

On Wednesday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told reporters the US was now offering up to $10 million “for information leading to the identification or location of any person who, acting at the direction or under the control of a foreign government, interferes with US elections by engaging in certain criminal cyber activities.”

Russian media reported that citizens there also received similar messages on Thursday. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova joked on Facebook that the US State Department’s website would be overwhelmed by denunciations.

The Iranian spokesperson categorically rejected the claims and said, “The text messages constitute a violation of people’s privacy rights”.

US President Donald Trump has suggested delaying November’s “fraudulent” presidential election, saying increased postal voting could lead to fraud and inaccurate results.