IRAN NEWS ECONOMIC DESK

TEHRAN – Governor of Central Bank of Iran (CBI) called bartering one of the classic methods for countering U.S. unilateral sanctions.

: In a joint meeting with Minister of Industry, Mine and Trade, Minister of Oil and Minister of Agriculture Jihad, Abdul Nasser Hemmati said: “In the current situation that the U.S. has considered a variety of decisions to prevent Iran from monetary and banking exchanges, bartering oil for commodities can counter Washington’s sanctions.”

The Governor of the Central Bank of Iran added that bartering is one of the ways to develop countries’ foreign trade.

Hemmati went on to say: “Considering the history of bartering in Iran, the existing program will be implemented in a wider dimension and in two stages, the first stage of which will include the supply of basic commodities, and the second stage will include essential goods and raw materials needed by production units.”

Earlier on Wednesday, he also called on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to grant Iran the emergency loans it needs to fight the coronavirus outbreak in the country.

The CBI governor made the remarks while addressing the governors of the central banks of the member-states of the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) via video conference.

“It is expected from the IMF to quickly and without any discrimination and without being influenced by political lobbying or pressures from other countries, including the U.S.,” Hemmati said while referring to Iran’s request for receiving emergency loans from the IMF.

He emphasized that the COVID-19 disease has harmed many countries and Iran has suffered more than many countries, and said, “Despite the severe sanctions of the US and the difficult situation that the country is facing, Iran has managed to contain this issue and make progress with its economic policies.”

Hemmati said the present situation has made many world countries face budget and liquidity problems and Iran is not an exception.

“Iran managed to take suitable measures by relying on its legal sources, but the problem is that the illegal U.S. sanctions have deprived Iran of gaining access to its resources in the absence of any acceptable logic,” he added.

Hemmati had earlier said that Iran had requested a $5 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund in the corona campaign package of Rapid Financial Instrument.

In the meantime, an IMF spokesman told IRNA on the condition of anonymity that “We have had discussions with the Iranian authorities to better understand their request for emergency financing from the Fund.”

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IRAN NEWS ECONOMIC DESK

TEHRAN – In its latest report, International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wedesday announced that Iran’s economy will grow by 3.2 percent in 2021.

The latest report of the International Monetary Fund on the state of world economy and its future outlook, which was recently published, estimates that Iran’s economic growth in 2021 will hit 3.2 percent. This estimate shows that Iran’s economy has improved 0.1 percent as compared to the Fund’s previous estimate of Iran’s economic growth outlook for next year.

According to IMF, next year’s inflation rate in Iran will reach 30%, which shows a 3% decrease as compared to the Fund’s previous estimate for next year.

IMF also pointed to the unemployment rate in Iran and added, the unemployment rate in Iran, which is predicted at 12.2 percent for this year, has been estimated at 12.4 percent in the next year.

The international body estimates that the world economy will end the current year with a negative growth of 4.4 percent, which is an improvement of about 0.8 percent as compared to its previous report and estimate.

This improvement is due to increased hopes for the recovery of developed economies after the coronavirus global pandemic as well as alleviation of restrictions due to the implementation of health protocols such as social distancing and closure of businesses.

In its another report, the International Monetary Fund estimates that world economic growth will reach 5.2 percent in 2021, indicating a recovery in the global economy after the coronavirus pandemic.

This year, the economies of European countries will also experience negative growth; France and the United Kingdom will face negative growth of 9.8 percent, Italy will experience a negative 10.6 percent growth while Spain’s economy will shrink 12.8 percent.

India will record negative growth of 10.3 percent this year, according to the report.

Among the world’s economies, only China will grow positively this year, with economic growth estimated at 1.9 percent.

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IRAN NEWS POLITICAL DESK

Iran will keep retaining its favorable position. In some part of the IMF report, the fund predicted Iran’s forex reserves to reach $103.3b by end of 2019. The IMF report shows that among 31 countries in the MENAP region, only Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s forex reserves conditions would be better than Iran by the yearend.

The report predicts the forex reserves of the countries in the region reiterates that Saudi Arabia’s forex reserves will be around $497.8b by the yearend while the figure for the UAE will be around $111.9b.

The IMF report predicts that the total forex reserves of the MENAP region will stand at around $1148.6b and Iran’s share accounts for 9 percent of the total forex reserves of the MEPNA states.

The report ironically questions the U.S. policies and reiterates that Iran’s forex reserves will remain over $100b and Iran will retain its third place in the region in terms of forex reserves.

The interesting point in the IMF’s report is that it claimed that Iran’s gross domestic production (GDP) has increased by $32b and its exports reached $74b exports which indicates the U.S. policy in stopping Iran’s exports has failed.

According to the IMF report, Iran’s economic growth declined to -4 % in 2018 and the negative economic growth will shrink more to -6% by the end of 2019.

Despite sanctions, Iran’s GDP, which was around $452.3, by a $32.4b increase will reach $485b by the end of 2019.

In its analytical part of the report, the IMF has underscored that the U.S. efforts to pressure sanctions on Iran’s economy have been in vain, adding that despite the. U.S. international efforts and threats for pressuring sanctions on Iran, the country can export 950,000 barrels of oil per day on average in 2019 while Iran was exporting 1.8m barrels per day on average in 2018. The reports added that Iran gas exports volume, which stood at 160m b/d per day in 2018, will remain unchanged this year despite sanctions.

The IMF has predicted that Iran’s exports in 2019 will be around $74.8b and its imports will reach $77.8b.

According to the IMF report, in 2018 Iran’s exports stood at $105.9b and its imports were $88b and the country’s trade balance became positive. But the report points to the inflation and control of prices in Iran which moves towards instability. It has gone further and reported that Iran’s inflation rate was 31.2% in 2018 and predicted that Iran’s inflation rate will bounce to around 37.2%. Of course with the current anti-public policies of the twelfth government, such a figure was nothing strange. Most of economic institutions believe that the President Rouhan’s current government will face the -7.5% economic growth and inflation rate will exceed 45%.

By: Hamid Reza Naghashian

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The IMF further said as Iran is one of its members, it will continue to cooperate with Seif, IRNA reported.

Last week, the U.S. Treasury accused Seif of covertly funneling money on behalf of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) and imposed sanctions on him.

Speaking in Brussels, Foreign Minister Javad Zarif called the sanctions against Seif “illegal”.

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