The changes that are happening in the large-scale atmospheric indicators forecast that precipitations in autumn will start on time and will be normal with a high probability, ISNA quoted Ahad Vazifeh, the head of the national center for drought and crisis management, as saying on June 11.

In summer, there will be not much rainfall in the country and less than 10 percent of the annual rainfall occur in this season, he added.

Iran has a dry and semi-arid climate and has an annual rainfall of 250 mm, which is about one-third of the global average.

The average rainfall of the country has been decreasing over time so the average rainfall of the country for 53 years was about 250 mm, but the average of the last 13 years has decreased to 232 mm.

In May, the national center for drought and crisis management forecasted the summer this year will be warmer than normal in the country.

In the northern and eastern provinces of the country, the rainfall is insufficient, and even the relatively normal rainfall of the remaining days of the current water year cannot compensate for the lack of rainfall.

The month of Ordibehesht (April 21-May 21) is the most important period in the spring season to receive rainfall in the country and is very important.

“For example, in the month of Farvardin (March 21-April 20), usually 35 millimeters of rain is recorded in the country, but in Ordibehesht, the rainfall amounts to about 20 mm. So, the rainfall in Ordibehesht is almost twice as much as in Farvardin.”

El Niño and La Niña

El Niño and La Niña phenomena are among the most important factors affecting the air temperature of many countries in the world, including Iran, Vazifeh said on June 6.

‘El Niño’ or “the boy” is widely used to describe the warming of sea surface temperature that occurs every few years, typically concentrated in the central-east equatorial Pacific.

‘La Niña’ or “the girl” is the term adopted for the opposite side of the fluctuation, which sees episodes of cooler than average sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific.

Of course, other factors also affect the decrease or increase of the average air temperature in the world, but the change of temperature in the Pacific Ocean is both highly predictable and has a very large scale compared to other indices, he added.

“For this reason, it is one of the most important indicators used for numerical modeling in seasonal forecasts.”

It is expected that in the coming months, the temperature changes of the Pacific Ocean will pass the neutral phase and enter the El Niño phase, or the warm phase, and this change will reach its maximum positive temperature anomaly this winter, Vazifeh explained.

“As much as the El Niño phase is stronger this year, the average winter temperature of this year in many countries, including in Iran, will record higher figures than normal conditions.”

“In 2016, when a very strong El Niño occurred, the temperature in different parts of the world recorded very high figures, and 2016 was the hottest year among all the years that the temperature of the earth has been measured and recorded,” Vazifeh noted.

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The water condition in most areas of Shadegan wetland is expected to improve with continuous rainfall compared to last year, he further said, IRNA reported on Tuesday.

With the cooling temperature in the regions of the northern orbit and Siberia, the Shadegan International Wetland will be host to migratory birds, Majdami stated, adding, the DOE forces are dispatched to patrol the area and protect the migratory aquatic species.

Shadegan wetland covers 530,000 hectares, 400,000 hectares of which have been designated as a Ramsar site (defined by the Ramsar Convention for the conservation and sustainable use of wetlands, recognizing the fundamental ecological functions of wetlands and their economic, cultural, scientific, and recreational value).

The wetland feeds on Marun and Karun rivers both crossing Kohgiluyeh-Boyerahmad province, but after dam construction over the Karun River, the wetland went dry not receiving its water right.

After the torrential rains and flooding started on March 19, 2020, the wetland has been saturated.

Last winter (December 2019- March 2020), 150,000 migratory birds were observed in the wetlands and reservoirs of Khuzestan. And the highest number of birds was counted in the Hour al-Azim wetland, the highest diversity in the Shadegan wetland, and the highest population decrease in the Bandoon wetland.

In January 2020, IRNA quoted Mostafa Kenarkoohi, the director-general of Khuzestan province’s veterinary department, as saying that fourteen types of indigenous and migratory birds are living in the wetland and they are monitored constantly in terms of health.

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However, rainfall shows a 21 percent decrease compared to the long-term average of 232.6 mm.

The precipitation condition is not at all favorable compared to the last two years, and this has made the concern of water supply more serious on hot summer days, however, some catchments will still receive rainfall.

Gilan province with 859.6 mm is the first rainiest province in the country, followed by Chaharmahal-Bakhtiari with 604.4 mm.

Yazd province received the lowest recorded rainfall in the country, amounting to 59.8 mm.

According to statistics, the average rainfall in the country in the last 50 years has been 270 mm, which has decreased by 230 mm, in other words, over the past 5 decades, the average rainfall has dropped by 40 mm.

According to the World Meteorological Organization’s multiannual forecast, in the next five years, Iran’s average rainfall will decline by 75 percent, and the temperature rises by 50-75 percent compared to the long-term average.

Climate change and extreme weather events

Climate change is a fact that cannot be run over, whether the temperature raises over 2 or 6°C, natural incidents such as flooding, droughts, and severe storms are among the main consequences of climate change.

Moreover, water and food shortages, water-borne illnesses, and cold or heat-related deaths will come up as the results of temperature variations. In tropical areas also the risk of floods will rise.

Heavy rain and other extreme weather events will become more frequent, which can lead to floods along with decreasing water quality, but also decreasing availability of water resources in some regions.

Climate change will also bring extreme wet and dry seasons, which mainly causes rainfall fluctuations and water scarcity. While there have been prolonged droughts nationwide in past recent years leaving people scrambling for water.

So, nations must take steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the future, preventing the emissions peak, otherwise, they might not be able to breathe on the planet in the future, or migrate to other places if found.

The study may also come efficient when it comes to making the people aware of climate change impact in their own city, within their lifetime, to avoid experiencing an entirely new climate that is beyond human experience.

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Since the beginning of the current water year (September 23, 2020), the whole country received 130 millimeters of rain over the last month, showing that precipitation has declined by 40 percent compared to the long-term average, he explained.

Pointing out that almost all the provinces are facing a serious decrease in rainfall, he specified “provinces of Hormozgan, Sistan-Baluchestan, Fars, Kerman, Khorasan Razavi, and South Khorasan, are short of rain by 50 to 85 percent. On the other hand, the western and southwestern provinces of Kordestan, Kermanshah, Ilam, Lorestan, and Chaharmahal-Bakhtiari are noticeably facing rainfall shortages.”

For example, the normal annual rainfall in Kermanshah province is 480 mm, but this province has received only 50 percent of its annual rainfall, he said, ISNA reported on Tuesday.

“The western and southwestern provinces are the springs of Iran, as receive about 700 mm of rainfall annually, which is a significant part of the country’s annual rainfall, but unfortunately the situation is not good during the current water year,” he lamented.

Referring to many provinces dealing with the water crisis, especially southern provinces such as Khuzestan, he said that the country received snowfall lower than normal during winter with above normal temperature. As a result, snow reserves and river flows decreased compared to last year.

“According to the Ministry of Energy, the reserves of dams in the country are not in a good condition and in some areas, the water level has decreased by about 40 percent compared to last year.

So, the water flow is not sufficient in the country’s wetlands and lakes. However, there is a need for officials to use all methods of water resources management to tackle the issue. Summer cultivation should also be stopped in the provinces. And People should also save the most,” he emphasized.

Scorching summer ahead

Stating that the temperature during spring (beginning on March 21) was about two to three degrees higher than the long-term average of the country, he predicted that the temperature in summer will still be higher than in the long run, but the temperature anomaly will be higher in the western half of Iran.

So that the temperature in provinces such as Kordestan, West Azarbaijan, East Azarbaijan, Zanjan, etc. will be about one to two degrees Celsius higher than the long-term average.

He pointed out that the temperature in the southern slopes of Alborz, including Tehran, is forecasted to be about 1 to 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than normal during the summer, adding that the southeastern province of Sistan-Baluchestan will also experience normal temperature.

More drought predicted over next 5 years

According to the World Meteorological Organization’s multiannual forecast, in the next five years, Iran’s average rainfall will decline by 75 percent, and the temperature rises by 50-75 percent compared to the long-term average.

Accordingly, the adoption of national policies to adapt to low rainfall and reduce the consequences of drought is inevitable, and the Seventh Development Plan should be prepared on the basis of drought and climate change, Vazifeh said in May.

A large part of the country has been hit by severe drought during the past 12 months. Forecasts indicate that we will not have significant rainfall in the remaining months of the current water year, so that, we face severe to very severe drought in most parts of the country, he stated.

What would be the consequences?

Climate change is a fact that cannot be run over, whether the temperature raises over 2 or 6°C, natural incidents such as flooding, droughts, and severe storms are among the main consequences of climate change.

Moreover, water and food shortages, water-borne illnesses, cold or heat-related deaths will come up as the results of temperature variations; in tropical areas also the risk of floods will raise.

Heavy rain and other extreme weather events will become more frequent, which can lead to floods along with decreasing water quality, but also decreasing availability of water resources in some regions.

Climate change will also bring extreme wet and dry seasons, which mainly causes rainfall fluctuations and water scarcity. While there have been prolonged droughts nationwide in past recent years leaving people scrambling for water.

So, nations must take steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the future, preventing the emissions peak, otherwise, they might not be able to breathe on the planet in the future, or migrate to other places if found.

The study may also come efficient when it comes to making the people aware of climate change impact in their own city, within their lifetime, to avoid experiencing an entirely new climate that is beyond human experience.

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The whole country received 16 millimeters of rain over the last month, meanwhile, the average normal rainfall is reported 18 millimeters in this month, showing a 15 percent decrease in rainfall, Ahad Vazifeh, head of the national center for drought and crisis management said.

Although some areas received a good amount of rainfall, including Tehran province and parts of the east and northeast of the country, in general, the average rainfall in Iran, was less than the long-term average, he added.

On the other hand, rainfall during the second month of spring was very low in a number of provinces, including Fars, Chaharmahal-Bakhtiari, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad, Kordestan, Kermanshah, and Ilam.

This is while the normal amount of rainfall in the country during the first two months of the year is 52 mm, so this year, the country was short of rain by 60 percent, he explained.

Precipitation in Iran amounted to 128 millimeters from the beginning of the current water year (September 22, 2020), which demonstrates a 41 percent decline compared to the long-term average.

Now, the eastern and southern provinces of the country have experienced a severe shortage of rainfall compared to the same period last year.

The highest percentage of rainfall was reported in Hormozgan, Sistan-Baluchestan, and Kerman provinces by 86, 82, and 65 percent drop, respectively.

The normal amount of rainfall in Tehran province is 260 mm, but so far this province has received only 212 mm of rainfall, which is about 47 mm (18%) below normal.

Moderate to very severe drought in Iran

Vazifeh further forecasted that the country will not receive much rain until the end of summer (September 23), but in the southeast of the country, the Indian monsoon currents will be more active than before. However, the amount of rainfall is not enough to cause a major change in the country.

According to the forecasts, the amount of precipitation during August and September on the northern coasts of the country will be approximately less than normal.

Stating that the decrease in precipitation has a direct effect on temperature rise, he said that therefore, the average temperature in the country during the first two months of this year was about 2 to 2.5 degrees higher than normal.

On the other hand, it is predicted that the temperature in the country will continue to rise and we will have a hotter summer than normal.

Watershed management: a solution

Earlier in April, Abolghasem Hosseinpour, director of flood control at Forests, Rangelands, and Watershed Management Organization said that Iran will probably experience drought over the current [Iranian calendar] year (began on March 21), as only four provinces out of 31 provinces of the country received normal rainfall last year.

Given that Iran is an arid and semi-arid region, the rainfall rate is low, in other words, the fluctuations of rainfall vary significantly from year to year, he added.

Over the last two years, Iran was doused with rain which was unprecedented during the past 50 years, but last year, the country faced drought, which shows a 40 percent decrease in rainfall, he explained.

Watershed management is a solution to strengthen the ecosystem in the face of subsequent droughts by penetrating rainfall into the ground.

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Over the last two years, Iran was doused with rain which was unprecedented during the past 50 years, but last year, unfortunately, the country faced drought, which shows a 40 percent decrease in rainfall, he explained.

He went on to note that for example, Sistan-Baluchestan and Hormozgan had a decline of 80 to 85 percent compared to the average rainfall, and among all, only four provinces received normal rainfall, which may cause drought this year, so that we need to strengthen watershed and aquifer infrastructure.

Watershed management is a solution to strengthen the ecosystem in the face of subsequent droughts by penetrating rainfall into the ground, he said.

Referring to the importance of watershed management, Hosseinpour noted that watershed management in the wet season will reduce flood damage, drought, and water shortage problems, in addition to stabilizing the ecosystem of the region.

“We are in dire need of infrastructure development, and the implementation of activities at the level of one million hectares per year, given the climate change conditions and the problems of drought and floods in the country, should be three or four times higher,” he concluded.

Wet spell

Rainfall extremes over the past three years slowly questioned the conception that Iran is experiencing a long-term drought and some of the experts announced that a wet spell will embrace the country.

So, some experts claimed that Iran has entered a period of a wet spell after experiencing dry spells over the past few decades, some others highly rejected the claim implying that the country faced a lack of rain by 50mm over the past 5 decades.

Climate disruption or global climate disruption, is the new term scientists are using to explain the extreme fluctuations that can and will occur to our weather systems as anthropogenic-caused carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases increase in our atmosphere, the oceans get warmer, and weather events go wild.

The report regrets that climate disruption will be continuing as climate change is on the rise and it calls on taking proper and effective measures to alleviate the adverse effects of climate change on the country.

In fact, experiencing two or three consecutive years of rainy days cannot ensure that drought no longer hits the country, but then it may enter a multi-year drought.

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Deciding whether the use of the word “unprecedentedly” is scientifically accurate or not is not a job that can be done by the press. It certainly needs extensive, reliable geological and meteorological data to confirm the claims.

However, what Iranians are experiencing over the current winter, most significantly in provinces located in arid and semi-arid areas such as Isfahan, Tehran, Qom or South Khorasan is way different than winters of few years ago.

According to Iran’s meteorological organization Iran has experienced a 56-percent decrease in average precipitation over the period from September 23-December 25 compared to the same period in the long run. Moreover, nearly 96 percent of Iran’s total area is suffering from different levels of prolonged drought.

In regard to that taking counter-measures to alleviate the undesirable outcomes of low precipitation levels must be a top priority.

In an interview with Tasnim news agency Hassan Lashkari, a faculty member at the geology department of the Shahid Beheshti University, has explained that managing current water resources as well as application of scientific technology that can enhance clouds’ ability to produce precipitation, also known as cloud seeding, as methods of facing the current challenges of water shortage in the country.

Regional climate can affect Iran

Lashkari scientifically explained the reasons as to why Iran is facing tangible decreased rainfall.

He said that as per researches and recent findings climatic variables and the main pressure systems that affect the weather and climate of Saudi Arabia can affect rainfall over the region, as well as Iran, in the cold seasons. There are two patterns of pressure that influence the weather and climate of Saudi Arabia and Iran.
The direction of subtropical high in Saudi Arabia can play an important role in the precipitation levels in Iran, he said, adding, westward oscillation of subtropical high prevents interaction between air masses and leads to a decrease in the surface air temperature, relative humidity and rainfall over Saudi Arabia and also Iran, he noted.

The second pattern occurs when subtropical high moves towards Sea of Oman and east India. This pattern, Lashkari said, increases the surface air temperature, relative humidity and the probability of rainfall over Saudi Arabia as well as Iran.

Over the autumn, he stated, the first pattern has happened and resulted in diminished rainfall in Iran.

Air pollution, particles can’t reduce rainfall

Lashkari further said that air pollution and fine particles (PM 2.5) cannot cause decreased rainfall. In fact it’s quite the reverse, he said. Cloud droplets form when water vapor gas gathers onto tiny airborne particles called condensation nuclei. Fine particles can be condensation nuclei for raindrops to form.

That’s why rain can leave spotting from raindrops splashing against the windows and windshields, he highlighted.

HARP has nothing to do with decreased rainfall 

Project HAARP, short for High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program, was originally developed was to analyze the ionosphere and investigate the potential for developing ionospheric enhancement technology for radio communications and surveillance.

Over the past few years, Lashkari said, due to lack of understanding and knowledge many have started baseless and unconfirmed rumors about the project potentials to cause draught in other parts of the world.

The U.S. is hit by giant and devastating hurricanes every now and then, he said, adding, if they had the power to control climatic conditions they would have certainly stopped them.

Cloud seeding is a viable option 

Inquired about the possibility of increasing precipitation amounts in the country Lashkari explained that cloud seeding is a viable option that officials should seriously consider.

In a country like Iran cloud seeding can be very important, he highlighted, stating, regarding the fact that the country will face severe water shortage in the near future setting up a research center to implement cloud seeding must be high on agenda.

However, he added, Iran is located in an arid and semi-arid region and any hopes for high precipitation amounts is unrealistic, such climatic condition is the inevitable fate of the country.

So sustainable water management especially in agriculture sector is seriously important, he concluded.

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