The average rainfall since the beginning of the water year has reached an average of 120 millimeters, while the normal rainfall for this time period is 143 mm, so it shows a decrease of 23 mm or 16% compared to the long-term, ISNA quoted Ahad Vazifeh, head of the national center for drought and crisis management, as saying.

Based on the existing data and long-term statistics, the current year’s rainfall is even lower than last year’s, although last year’s rainfall was very low, he added.

Over the three weeks from mid-January to early February, the air temperature of the country dropped significantly, so that the average temperature of the country was more than one degree colder than normal, Vazifeh noted.

He went on to say that in the last week of the tenth month (ended January 20) and the first week of the eleventh month, the average temperature in the country was about 2.5 degrees colder than normal.

“Even with good rainfalls in the last two months, which were often in the form of snow, the drought and heat in autumn cannot be ignored.

It has affected the average available water in the country, and in the northern and eastern half of the country, the amount of precipitation is extremely less than normal,” he concluded.

Over the previous water year which began on September 23, 2021, the rainfall decreased by about 24 percent compared to the long-term average, which marked another year of low rainfall for Iran.

As the newly extracted statistics show, a total of 180.4 mm of rain has poured in the country over the past water year, which shows a decline of 23.9 mm compared to the long-term average of 237.1 mm.

The last water year marked the year of low rainfall for the country, causing the continuation of dry years.

The summer season shows an increase of 19.7 mm in rainfall, which is accompanied by a growth of 71.3 mm compared to the long-term period when the amount of rainfall was 11.5 mm.

No end to the drought is in sight over the cold season, Vazifeh forecasted in January.

A temperature higher than the normal of the last 30 years is predicted, he said, ISNA reported.

In general, a rainy winter is not expected and the rainfall is likely to be less than normal, but the effects of drought in many parts of the country will be even stronger than last year, he warned.

The average rainfall in the semi-arid country of Iran is 250 mm, which is one-third of the world average. Iran’s 53-year average rainfall was 250 mm, which has decreased to 232 mm in the last 13 years.

Parallel to this decrease, the increasing trend of temperature caused an increase in evaporation and a decrease in precipitations, and a sharp drop in the level of underground water resources and its limitation.

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However, the volume of precipitations is still unfavorable and there is a shortfall over the long-term period, IRNA reported.

According to the report, 17.3 millimeters of precipitations were recorded in the 15-day period.

Since the beginning of the current water year (September 23, 2022), precipitations have reached 52.6 millimeters, a decrease of 26.2 percent compared to 71.3 millimeters in the long-term period.

According to statistics, the average rainfall in the country in the last 50 years has been 270 mm, which has decreased by 230 mm, in other words, over the past 5 decades, the average rainfall has dropped by 40 mm.

According to the World Meteorological Organization’s multiannual forecast, in the next five years, Iran’s average rainfall will decline by 75 percent, and the temperature rises by 50-75 percent compared to the long-term average.

Severe drought

Over the previous water year, the rainfall decreased by about 24 percent compared to the long-term average, which marked another year of low rainfall for Iran.

Unfortunately, over 70 percent of the country is suffering from severe drought. The severity of the drought is devastating in areas such as the Zagros, which is both a source of water and natural habitats

Perhaps the first and most important damage of drought is the weakening of vegetation, which seriously disrupts the wildlife food chain.

Iran faces a range of environmental challenges from high temperatures, pollution, flooding, and vanishing lakes. In April 2021, the Iranian Meteorological Organization warned of an “unprecedented drought” and rainfall levels that were substantially below long-term averages.

The Iranian Red Crescent Society estimates that 4.8 million people are at medium to high risk of drought-related impacts, mostly in remote and rural areas of the provinces.

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The whole country received 16 millimeters of rain over the last month, meanwhile, the average normal rainfall is reported 18 millimeters in this month, showing a 15 percent decrease in rainfall, Ahad Vazifeh, head of the national center for drought and crisis management said.

Although some areas received a good amount of rainfall, including Tehran province and parts of the east and northeast of the country, in general, the average rainfall in Iran, was less than the long-term average, he added.

On the other hand, rainfall during the second month of spring was very low in a number of provinces, including Fars, Chaharmahal-Bakhtiari, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad, Kordestan, Kermanshah, and Ilam.

This is while the normal amount of rainfall in the country during the first two months of the year is 52 mm, so this year, the country was short of rain by 60 percent, he explained.

Precipitation in Iran amounted to 128 millimeters from the beginning of the current water year (September 22, 2020), which demonstrates a 41 percent decline compared to the long-term average.

Now, the eastern and southern provinces of the country have experienced a severe shortage of rainfall compared to the same period last year.

The highest percentage of rainfall was reported in Hormozgan, Sistan-Baluchestan, and Kerman provinces by 86, 82, and 65 percent drop, respectively.

The normal amount of rainfall in Tehran province is 260 mm, but so far this province has received only 212 mm of rainfall, which is about 47 mm (18%) below normal.

Moderate to very severe drought in Iran

Vazifeh further forecasted that the country will not receive much rain until the end of summer (September 23), but in the southeast of the country, the Indian monsoon currents will be more active than before. However, the amount of rainfall is not enough to cause a major change in the country.

According to the forecasts, the amount of precipitation during August and September on the northern coasts of the country will be approximately less than normal.

Stating that the decrease in precipitation has a direct effect on temperature rise, he said that therefore, the average temperature in the country during the first two months of this year was about 2 to 2.5 degrees higher than normal.

On the other hand, it is predicted that the temperature in the country will continue to rise and we will have a hotter summer than normal.

Watershed management: a solution

Earlier in April, Abolghasem Hosseinpour, director of flood control at Forests, Rangelands, and Watershed Management Organization said that Iran will probably experience drought over the current [Iranian calendar] year (began on March 21), as only four provinces out of 31 provinces of the country received normal rainfall last year.

Given that Iran is an arid and semi-arid region, the rainfall rate is low, in other words, the fluctuations of rainfall vary significantly from year to year, he added.

Over the last two years, Iran was doused with rain which was unprecedented during the past 50 years, but last year, the country faced drought, which shows a 40 percent decrease in rainfall, he explained.

Watershed management is a solution to strengthen the ecosystem in the face of subsequent droughts by penetrating rainfall into the ground.

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“There are scientific centers in the country that conducted a study in this regard and the results confirm this point,” said Brigadier General Gholam Reza Jalali, ISNA reported.

“Joint teams from Israel and one of the neighboring countries are deceeding the clouds entering Iran,” he said, adding, “Also, we are faced with other phenomena such as cloud stealing and snow stealing.”

In the study, the general continued, “the highlands of Afghanistan to the Mediterranean were studied, and the result was that all the highlands with the height of over 2,200 meters were covered with snow while our highlands were arid.”

In recent years, Iran has been suffering from low precipitation and experiencing a rise in temperature.

Last week, the director of the national center for drought and crisis management said all Iranian provinces experienced an average 0.8 degrees on the Celsius scale temperature rise over spring compared to the long-term mean.

The long-term mean temperature in spring was 20.3 degrees on the Celsius scale nationwide, Sadeq Ziaeian said.

According to Iran’s meteorological organization, Iran has experienced a 56-percent decrease in average precipitation over the period from September 23 to December 25 in 2017 compared to the same period in the long run.

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