The drama is reminiscent of the deep disagreement among the regime’s leadership 10 years ago, when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and War Minister Ehud Barak unsuccessfully sought to convince the security cabinet to approve a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. A decade on, history is repeating itself. Israel’s military capabilities for such an attack have since degraded as Iran’s program has progressed and expanded.

The controversy is the same, as is the balance of power between opponents and proponents of a deal with Iran. The crux of the controversy is over intense U.S. efforts to reconstitute the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers. One camp believes reviving the agreement is Israel’s best option and the other is convinced that the proposed agreement negotiated in Vienna is a disaster.

Brig. Gen. (reserve) Dror Shalom, the former head of the Research and Analysis Division of Israeli Military Intelligence, reportedly told his American interlocutors last week in Washington that the U.S. decision to quit the agreement with Iran in 2018 was a careless strategic mistake.

Shalom currently heads the political-military bureau of Israel’s Ministry of War, a highly influential and sensitive policy post War Minister Benny Gantz appointed him to earlier this year. His purview includes public and clandestine contacts with defense establishments around the world.

Shalom led the intelligence research bureau from 2016 to 2020, a time when Netanyahu and his close aide, Ambassador to the United States Ron Dermer, were deeply invested in convincing President Donald Trump to withdraw from the agreement with Iran. Shalom warned Israeli decision-makers including Netanyahu of the risks of such a move. Many top security and defense minds agreed.

Their assessments have borne out. The economic sanctions have not forced Iran to abandon its nuclear program and (perhaps despite Netanyahu and his allies’ hopes), Trump did not order a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Shalom and other like-minded officials point out that Iran is now far closer to the nuclear threshold than it was while bound to its commitments under the 2015 agreement, and no world power seems to be able to stop it or afford the price off trying.

Shalom’s analysis corresponds to comments by former military intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Tamir Heyman, who said in an interview this week with Israel Hayom that a return to the agreement with Iran is Israel’s least bad option. His successor Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva reportedly agrees. As head of military intelligence, he is also tasked with compiling Israel’s national annual assessment report, which also reflects the long prevailing military intelligence view of the Iran issue.

The most prominent professional voice on the other side of the issue is Mossad director David Barnea, who took the agency’s reins a year ago from Yossi Cohen. Barnea reportedly believes the deal with Iran is catastrophic.

Barnea is of the view that Israel must do everything in its power to prevent a return to the deal, arguing that the status quo is the best alternative, while sanctions remain in place.

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s views appear to correspond to Barnea’s, just as Netanyahu was in sync at the time with Cohen.

Gantz leans the other way, which is hardly surprising, as the Israel Defense Forces report to him as defense minister. Bennett’s alternate, Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, is somewhere in the middle, and IDF chief Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi’s views are closer to the Mossad chief’s.

The argument has serious policy repercussions. The Mossad is taking some credit for convincing U.S. President Joe Biden to reject Iran’s demand for removal of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) from the U.S. list of foreign terrorist groups in return for agreeing once again to curb its nuclear program.

Israeli decision-makers have so far managed to downplay this disagreement and presented a mostly united front to the outside.

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In the Sunday statement signed by 250 lawmakers, out of 290, stressed that getting credible guarantees is a red line to ensure the interests of the Iranian people is protected. Hardliners loyal to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei dominate the Iranian parliament since 2020, after elections in which most rivals were banned from contesting.

Iran has been insisting to obtain a political guarantee from the United States that it would not renege on a new nuclear agreement. Former president Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, reimposing crippling sanctions on Tehran.

Lawmakers said the negotiations to revive the 2015 deal have reached a critical point, calling on the president not to compromise on any of the demands reiterated by the Islamic Republic. These include not only a political guarantee, but also the removal of all sanctions imposed on Iran, whether for nuclear or other reasons, such as human rights violations or terrorism. The text explicitly mentions guarantees by France, Germany and the United Kingdom, the three European signatories of JCPOA, to remove all sanctions.

The statement said the U.S. and the three European signatories of the nuclear deal have shown in the past eight years that they are not committed to any agreement and used all the possible means against the interests of the Iranian people, adding that they also put sanctions on medicines – a highly questionable claim.

The lawmakers also asked Raisi to get credible will not use JCPOA’s trigger mechanism designed to reimpose international sanctions in case Iran violates the nuclear agreement.

According to the statement, the U.S. and the three European countries must lift all the sanctions related to nuclear, terrorism, missiles, and human rights issues, including the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), CAATSA U-turn, and the Iran Sanctions Act (ISA).

The U.S. and JCPOA signatories must fulfill their obligations about sanctions in a manner verifiable for Iran, they said, noting that the administration should brief the parliament on the removal of oil and banking sanctions, then the parliament would approve reducing the nuclear activities.

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“Following constant follow-ups by the Iran Nuclear Regulatory Authority (INRA) at the Atomic Energy Organization and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in 2017, Iran’s application for membership in the committee was accepted along with three countries of Norway, the United Arab Emirates and Algeria,” Mohammad Reza Kardan said while explaining the process of Iran’s membership in the scientific committee and its promotion from an observer to a permanent member.

The official added: “According to UN General Assembly Resolution 72/76, the applicant countries were asked to nominate a relevant scientist as an observer for a period of 4 years, in order to decide on their permanent membership after the 4-year period, based on the executive method of membership in the committee and based on the useful and effective presence of member countries in the activities.”

The AEOI deputy chief stated that by taking advantage of national capacities and Iranian scientists in the technical working groups, Iran had had an active and effective participation in committee, adding that the level and quality of the participation of Iran in the programs of the committee were such that it astonished the members of the committee to the extent that everyone agrees that Iran’s presence in the committee can significantly increase the quality of activities.

“In the sixty-eighth meeting of the committee in 2021, and after 4 years of the presence of observer members, the consideration of permanent membership of four observer countries, including Iran, was on the agenda of the committee. In this meeting, which was held virtually, a report on the activities carried out by Iran in the past four years was presented and at the end, the proposal for Iran’s permanent membership in the UNSCEAR was agreed upon by consensus,” Kardan stated.

Recalling that permanent membership in the UNSCEAR should be approved by the UN General Assembly, he underlined that intensive diplomatic consultation by the Foreign Ministry as well as effective, scientific, research and brilliant record provided by Iran coupled with full support by the committee’s scientists, fortunately Iran’s membership in the UN General Assembly was approved and Iran’s position in this international body was upgraded from an observer to a permanent member.

The scientific committee was established in 1955 to gather and evaluate information on the effects of atomic radiation on humans and how to deal with the effects of radiation and the concerns arising from nuclear weapons tests, in accordance with UN General Assembly Resolution 913.
UNSCEAR had 15 members at the time of establishment and increased its members to 27 in three periods, which with the permanent membership of Iran and three other countries, the number of full members will increase to 31.

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The bill, led by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), would give the Senate veto power over any attempt by the Biden administration to reenter the nuclear deal — which was effectively dissolved when former President Donald Trump withdrew from the pact in 2018 — by deeming it a treaty, which mandates approval from the upper chamber.

The GOP proposal comes as top Biden officials are holding indirect talks with the Iranians in Vienna in a bid to revive the Obama-era deal, which Republicans uniformly opposed. GOP lawmakers have introduced several measures aimed at preventing Biden from lifting the biting sanctions that Trump imposed on Tehran as part of his administration’s “maximum pressure” doctrine.

“Any potential agreement with Iran involves risks that affect our entire nation. It is critical to the security of America and to world peace that any deal Biden negotiates with Iran be deemed a treaty requiring approval by the U.S. Senate,” Johnson said.

Republicans have been pushing for Biden to use the Vienna talks to pressure Iran over its non-nuclear activities, too; but Democrats say that approach would be a death knell to efforts to revive the nuclear agreement.

Republicans’ new effort could further complicate the administration’s diplomatic efforts, since it’s aligned in spirit if not letter with a push that successfully afforded Congress veto power over the 2015 U.S.-Iran deal. The Johnson-led bill would subject any future agreement to a two-thirds majority vote in the Senate, an even higher hurdle than the 60-vote threshold the 2015 pact was subjected to.

The 2015 nuclear deal is endorsed by UN Security Council Resolution 2231.

Most recently, the U.S. has been monitoring Iranian Navy ships that are making their way across the Atlantic Ocean, potentially for a weapons delivery to Venezuela. The Biden administration is pressuring the Venezuelan and Cuban governments to turn away the Iranian ships, and a senior administration official warned that the U.S. will take “appropriate measures in coordination with our partners to deter the transit or delivery of such weapons.”

A top Iranian military commander said on Thursday that the Iranian naval fleet, including two ships, has entered the Atlantic Ocean.

Habibollah Sayyari, deputy chief of the Army for coordination affairs, said Iran is entitled under international law to have a naval presence in international waters.

“We consider our presence in international waters an inalienable strategic right of the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy and we will continue on this path with strength,” Rear Admiral Sayyari stated.

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He also said the government has implemented numerous projects including in petrochemicals, steel industry, transportation, etc.

Speaking in a weekly news briefing, the government spokesman also cited self-sufficiency in gasoline production, transfer of water from the Persian Gulf to water-hungry provinces as other examples.

These projects will positively affect employment and economic improvement.

 “JCPOA is a national issue”

On what is the guarantee that the next government would seek to revive the JCPOA if it is not restored in the current administration, the government spokesman said the nuclear issue is a “national issue” which is being pursued through consensus.

He said on “national and macro policies” it is the Islamic Republic system that decides.

“Therefore, any decision that is made through consensus” by the ruling system “about negotiations will be respected by the next government.”

Iran and the remaining parties to the nuclear deal — three European countries plus Russia, China — as well as the United States are set to resume the six round of nuclear deal talks in Vienna next week.

Hopes for restoring the JCPOA was raised as the Biden administration has expressed willingness to return to the multilateral deal that was abandoned by the Trump administration.

Nuclear negotiators have returned to the capitals for consultation. Some diplomats have expressed hope that the next round of talks would be the last one.

The European countries are acting as intermediary between Iran and the United States as Iran has said it will not enter dialogue with Americans until they return to the JCPOA and lift sanctions.

Diplomats have said most issues related to the revival of the JCPOA are being ironed out but a few most important issues still remain unsettled which entails political decisions at Washington and Tehran.

“We hope that the next round of talks to bear results,” the government spokesman said.

However, Rabiei said as Iran has not been in hurry for nuclear deal talks it is also opposed to a prolongation of talks.

He added, “Our concentration is on completion of negotiations in the remaining time.”

The Iranian parliament has set deadlines for reactivation of the JCPOA otherwise Iran will continue to reduce its nuclear deal obligations

However, Rabiei said he prefers not to make guesses on the nuclear deal talks “sooner than what is necessary.”

The government also said hope for ratification of the CFT and Palermo will be raised if the JCPOA is revived. However, he said the ratification of these two bills are in the hands of the Expediency Council.

He also said there is no connection between the FATF and the ongoing nuclear deal talks in Vienna.

The JCPOA is independent from the FATF, he added.

The government also complained that in the televised presidential debates there was no mention on the effects of the coronavirus pandemic and sanctions on the economy.

It was necessary that the IRIB (national TV) which poses questions to the presidential candidates do not ignore the effects of “maximum pressure”, Coronavirus, and the economic war waged by the Trump administration.

“It seems that in view of those who pose questions sanctions and Corona did not worth mentioning.”

He said those candidates who are making harsh attacks against the government and “say that we can manage better” should answer questions that how they could manage the country when Trump was bent on strangulating the Iranian economy.

They should also should answer that how they could manage the country better when the Coronavirus has affected the global economy, the spokesman pointed out.

He added those who try to “prove” themselves see nothing other than undermining the government.

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“Production growth figures in various industrial sectors of the country are the best evidence of the ineffectiveness of the US maximum pressure policy,” President Hassan Rouhani said at a meeting of the government’s economic coordination headquarters in Tehran on Sunday.

Hailing the Iranian people’s resistance in the face of an economic war, Rouhani pointed out that even the US government acknowledges that the maximum pressure policy has failed.

He said Washington has clearly voiced its readiness to remove the sanctions during the ongoing talks in Vienna which are aimed at restoring the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement.

“We will continue the negotiations until [reaching] a final agreement,” the president added.

Iran and the other five remaining parties to the nuclear deal – Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany – began discussions early last month to bring the US and Iran into full compliance with the deal, officially called the JCPOA.

The JCPOA was signed in 2015, but the US abandoned the deal in 2018 to inflict “maximum pressure” on Iran. In response, Iran began in 2019 to gradually ditch its nuclear commitments under the deal.

The talks in the Austrian capital are also attended by the US, but Tehran and Washington are not in direct contact.

The fifth round of the talks, which will begin in the coming days, is widely speculated to be the last one, as participants noted the “good” progress that was made in the fourth round and said an agreement is “within reach”.

Also, President Rouhani said on Thursday that the participants had agreed to remove all main sanctions targeting the country’s oil, petrochemical, shipping and insurance sectors as well as the Central Bank of Iran.

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“The Vienna talks on #JCPOA are unique. The aim isn’t to update an agreement or elaborate a new one,” Ulyanov tweeted, according to the Mehr news agency

“The goal is to restore a nearly ruined deal piece by piece. Was there a similar exercise in the history of international relations? I cannot recollect anything like that. Can you?” he added.

In an interview with Echo of Moscow on Saturday, Ulyanov also said that the Vienna talks on possible revival of the JCPOA may reach a final conclusion in early June.

“The fact is that speculation is not a very correct action, but if you ask about my personal opinion, I can say that the first days of June are a realistic deadline,” the diplomat pointed out.

“At least for now, it seems to me but when it comes to such work and complex relations, accurate prediction is impossible,” he said, adding, “I’m talking about what I feel about myself and my partners right now.”

Earlier, Ulyanov had tweeted that the Vienna talks between Iran and Western countries were unique of their kind.

The latest round of talks on the JCPOA Joint Commission was held on Wednesday afternoon. The participants called the talks productive.

The delegates from Iran and other remaining members of the JCPOA as well as the United States have returned to their capital for consultations as the negotiations to revitalize the multilateral 2015 nuclear deal have reached a sensitive stage.

The nuclear teams are scheduled to resume negotiations on Tuesday.

The talks are led by Enrique Mora, the European External Action Service (EEAS) Deputy Secretary General.

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“The removal of sanctions against the central bank, Iranian banks, SWIFT, and any money transfer between them and major foreign correspondent banks, needs to be verified,” Hemmati said in an interview with Bloomberg.

Hemmati noted that officials from the central bank are directly involved in the negotiations to make sure that the lifting of sanctions will be real and practical.

Asked about the way in which the practicality of the deal will be verified, Hemmati said: “We will make the verification in our own ways; personally, I am hopeful about the trend of negotiations.”

Iran and the remaining parties to the 2015 nuclear deal held another meeting on Friday to discuss the latest developments concerning the nuclear deal. During the meeting, participants agreed to expedite talks and start working on a draft text of the final agreement to revive the nuclear deal.

Iran’s banking system has for decades been largely isolated from global finance because of the U.S. sanctions.

The Islamic Republic says U.S. sanctions have even prevented the country from importing non-sanctioned goods like food and medicines and effectively handle the coronavirus outbreak. Washington has also stood in the way of Iran’s $5 billion loan application to the International Monetary Fund.

The Friday meeting has marked the start of the fourth round of nuclear talks, which is taking place in the Austrian capital of Vienna within the framework of the JCPOA Joint Commission.

Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister who leads the Iranian delegation at the Vienna talks, issued a brief statement shortly after the JCPOA Joint Commission saying that during the meeting “it was decided to start expert and technical consultations and work on the draft texts immediately.”

The statement added, “All parties reaffirmed their seriousness to achieve the result in the shortest possible time.”

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“The nuclear accord is a multilateral international agreement ratified by UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which is non-negotiable and parties to it are clear and unchangeable,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh was quoted by state media as saying on Saturday.

Iran began breaching the deal’s limits on uranium enrichment activity after Washington withdrew from the pact in 2018 under then-President Donald Trump and reimposed economic sanctions on Tehran.

President Joe Biden’s new administration has said it will rejoin the deal but only after Tehran resumes full compliance with its terms.

But Iran has rejected US demands to reverse its acceleration of the nuclear program before Washington lifts sanctions on Tehran.

Saudi Arabia and its ally the United Arab Emirates have said that Gulf Arab states should be involved this time in any talks, which they say should also address Iran’s ballistic missile program and its support for proxies around the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia, which is locked in several proxy wars in the region with Tehran including in Yemen, supported Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran.

In his comments on Friday, cited by Al Arabiya television, Macron stressed the need to avoid what he called the mistake of excluding other countries in the region when the 2015 deal was negotiated and should include Saudi Arabia.

Macron said any new talks on the nuclear deal with Iran would be very “strict” and that a very short time remained to prevent Tehran from having a nuclear weapon.

Khatibzadeh said Macron should “show self-restraint”.

“If French officials are worried about their huge arms sales to Persian Gulf Arab states, they better reconsider their policies,” Khatibzadeh said.

“French arms, along with other Western weapons, not only cause the massacre of thousands of Yemenis but are also the main cause of regional instability,” he added.

Earlier this month, Iran resumed enriching uranium to 20 percent at its underground Fordow nuclear plant – a level it achieved before the accord.

Iran’s parliament, dominated by hardliners, passed legislation last month that forces the government to harden its nuclear stance if US sanctions are not eased within two months.

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