In 1977, the country’s population grew by 3.4 percent annually, however, suddenly, it dropped to about 1.6 percent in 2006, and a decade later, the population growth rate stood at 1.24, showing a considerable decline.

However, some experts claimed that the rate has declined to 0.6 percent in 2020.

Generally, three factors of birth, mortality, and immigration are effective in population growth.

In 1977, the average number of children per woman was 7, which reached 1.8 children in 2006, and finally, in 2016, the ratio estimated at 1.24.

This trend has not occurred only in Iran, and many developed countries have followed this path over the past 50-60 years, Shahla Kazemipour, a demographer, told ISNA on Wednesday.

Referring to the causes of declining fertility as increasing literacy, education, and urbanization, she said that “whenever development indicators increase in each country, the fertility rate decreases and in Iran the fertility rate has decreased.”

The downward trend of population growth gradually decreases and reaches zero, then becomes negative. Negative population growth causes the population to disappear in the long run, she lamented.

She went on to say that it is estimated that population growth will reach zero in 2040 and then becomes negative, so the biggest concern is that Iran’s population will age in the coming years, fertility will decline, and the population of youth will decrease.

Demographic window of opportunity

In demography, the population under the age of 15 is called “young”. In 1977, 46 percent of the people were young, while now 23 percent of the population are below 15 years of age.

In 2006, the elderly constituted 3 percent of the population, which now increased to 8-9 percent. At that time, the population was very young and now is middle-aged.

Iran has achieved a demographic window of opportunity which in all other countries led to economic prosperity so that Iran must seize the opportunity now before its working-age population starts to shrink and get older in the 2050s.

Pointing to the shortage of workforce in the next few years, she said: “When we have a large number of unemployed young people (amounting to four million in Iran), the number of unemployed will decrease.

Even if the population of Iran grows old over the next 30 years, 25 percent of whom are the elderly, 22 percent are children and we still have a 55 percent working-age population, so that it is unlikely to be economically worrying.”

Death rate increased by 20%

Population growth is higher in societies with high fertility and immigration, and it gets lower in societies with high mortality and migration.

But since 1977, at a time when mortality has been declining, fertility faced a declining trend, which has slowed population growth, she said.

In 2016, the death rate was about 4.6 per thousand population but reached 4.8 per thousand population in 2019. Thus, one of the reasons that population growth is going to be negative is the increase in mortality, despite the fact that life expectancy also increased, she explained.

“Over the past four decades, life expectancy has increased from 50 years to more than 70 years, 72 years for men, and 74 years for women.” But forecasts show that in the coming years, life expectancy will reach 74 years for men and 76 years for women.

Over the last one or two years, there has been a 20 percent increase in mortality due to the coronavirus epidemic, and this increase makes us closer to zero population growth, she stated.

Last year, 360,000 deaths have been registered, while 70,000 of which were related to COVID-19, according to official figures.

Socioeconomic factors decreased fertility rate

“Several socioeconomic factors, including urbanization, education, financial issues, first marriage age, as well as increased access to family planning services along with increased time gap between the firstborn and marriage, lead to decreased fertility rate.

But the problem in Iran is the pace of decline, which is very high. So, we have to look for the reason that increased the pace.,” she explained.

To increase the birth rate, we must increase the social security of the people.

Plan on population growth, family support

The Majlis (Iranian Parliament) approved on March 16 to implement a population growth and family support plan for 7 years to change the declining trend of childbearing.

The plan stipulates health insurance for infertile couples, providing services and facilities to working women, providing health and nutrition support packages to mothers and children, educational opportunities for student mothers, providing livelihood support to families, and ongoing medical services to pregnant women.

As the Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has emphasized that the seventh Five-Year National Development Plan (2021-2026) should focus on population growth, and on the other hand, the Expediency Council seeks a one-year extension of the Sixth Five-Year National Development Plan, it was decided to implement the plan for 7 years.

According to the law, all higher education institutions in the country are obliged to raise awareness about the positive aspects of childbearing, take the necessary measures such as producing content and learning packages, as well as holding festivals, workshops, temporary and permanent exhibitions.

The Ministry of Interior, the Ministry of Sports, the Ministry of Culture, and other relevant institutions are obliged to allocate 30 percent of their budgets to those NGOs that work to reduce the age of marriage, facilitate youth marriage, encourage childbearing and strengthen families.

Employees with three to five children will be promoted. Maternity leave will be extended to 9 months by paying all salaries and related extras.

The government is obliged to establish a life insurance and investment fund for unemployed housewives with 3 or more children living in rural and nomadic areas by paying 70 percent of the life and investment insurance premiums.

The Ministry of Health is obliged to provide quality natural childbirth in state-run hospitals in a way that is completely free for people covered by insurance and people without insurance coverage.

Municipal public transportation services and cultural, sports, and recreational tariffs will be halved.

Tuition for children in private schools and educational centers will include a 20 percent discount.

All production, distribution, and service units are obliged to include phrases with the content of childbearing support on products and goods.

Evaluating the plan, Kazemipour concludes that it is a good plan and has a welfare aspect but requires strict enforcement to be implemented well. If it is not implemented well or only some clauses are implemented, the plan will not seem to be successful.

Population growth should meet needs of the youth

However, population growth requires a capability to address the needs of a young nation which can be fulfilled with various indicators, such as social and economic development, development of recreational and educational facilities, increasing the share of young people in managerial positions and among decision-makers, providing the conditions for the growth and prosperity of the youth.

Two years ago, members of the Majlis (Iranian parliament) passed a law banning the employment of retirees. But how much was it implemented?

Interior Minister Abdolreza Rahmani-Fazli has said that increasing the youth’s share in managerial positions is on the agenda, while the average age of managers in the ministry has decreased by only two to three years.

Statistics show that a quarter of the country’s young population in decision-making positions is quite absent. However, if this young population is not exposed to practical empowerment, they will certainly face challenges in the future and will not be able to use the existing opportunities for growth and lose the opportunity in management and decision making.

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Iran experienced the highest population growth rate over a 5-year period between 1980 and 1985, when the population grew by nearly 4 percent per year.

Decade later, however, in the Iranian calendar year 1374 (March 1996- March 1997), the results of census showed a rapid decline in the population growth rate due to fertility decline, which dropped from 6.2 births per woman to 2.5 births per woman, over a decade.

According to the data released by the National Organization for Civil Registration, comparing past three years, some 1,366,509 infants were born in the country, whose births were registered last year, while 1,487,913 births occurred a year before it, and 1,528,053 births have been recorded in the Iranian calendar year 1395 (March 2016- March 2017), a difference of roughly 100,000 per year.

Factors affecting birth rate in the country

Ali Akbar Mahzoon, head of population and immigrant statistics at the Statistical Centre of Iran said that the latest Iranian census conducted in 2016 put Iran’s population at 79,926,270 with a male to female ratio of 1.027.

“The annual number of births was fluctuating around 1.4 million before 1370s (1991-2001), which increased sharply to about 2.5 million in late 1370s, however, over the past few years, the number is again estimated at 1.5 million births per year,” he added.

Several socioeconomic factors led to fertility rate decrease and reproductive behavior in the country, including urbanization, education, financial issues, first marriage age, as well as increased access to family planning services along with increased time gap between the first born and marriage.

Between the Iranian calendar years of 1376 (March 1996-March 1997) to 1395 (March 2016- March 2017), the average age at first marriage for females increased from 19.8 to 23.0 and for males increased from 23.6 to 27.4.

Mohammad Baqer Abbasi, an official with National Organization for Civil Registration said in July 2018 that in the Iranian calendar year 1396 (March 2017-March 2018), some 146,000 babies were born a year or less after their parents’ marriage, which constitute 10 percent. While some 18 percent of births occurred up to two years after the date of the marriage.

Iran’s elderly population growth 

Reduction in the fertility level results not only in a slower pace of population growth but also in an older population.

Higher life expectancy has also contributed to the country’s population growth and survival rates of older age groups, as life expectancy at birth for males was 51 years reported 50 years ago which increased to 75 years in the Iranian calendar year 1394 (March 2015- March 2016), while that of females raise from 51 to 77 years.

Average life expectancy at birth increases largely due to rapid declines in infant and child mortality; since 50 years ago, the mortality rate for children aging 5 or younger, dropped from 188 to 17 deaths per 1,000 live births.

The age dependency ratio, which is the proportion of children (younger than 15) and elderly (65 and older) to the working age population (15 to 65), experienced a drop from 0.95 in 1370s to 0.45 in 1390s,” Mahzoon noted.

In June 2018, Anoushirvan Mohseni-Bandpey, the then caretaker of cooperatives, labor and welfare ministry, said that some 7.3 million people in Iran are ageing, 3.7 million of them are women and 3.6 million are men.

Also, First Vice-President Es’haq Jahangiri said that the population of senior citizens standing at 7.3 million in Iran is projected to increase to 30 million by 2050.

Iran’s population growth rate to decline dramatically

Elsewhere in his remarks, Mahzoon said that declining trend of the whole population growth rate raises the question of whether this trend can reach zero or negative levels; demographic answer to this question is positive.

“The astonishing fertility decline in Iran began around the Iranian calendar year 1363 (March 1984- March 1985) four years before the inauguration of the national family planning program by the government, counseling and services were provided to rural couples through the country’s rural health networks,” he explained.

“When, the desire for smaller family size was on the rise and therefore the program enjoyed a high level of social acceptance. In all, the level and speed of the fertility decline went far beyond the government’s original conservative targets.”

In 2016, there were 24.2 million households in Iran with an average size of 3.3 persons; almost two persons smaller than 5.1 persons reported in 1360s (1981-1991), Mahzoon stated.

The overall statistics have shown that growth rate is declining, and even a negative growth trend is tending to happen, he said, adding that international sources also claim that negative trend of population growth will happen in Iran.

Iran must seize the opportunity

“Iran currently achieved a demographic window of opportunity which must be seized now before its working-age population starts to shrink and get older in 2050s,” Mahzoon stated.

Seizing the opportunity, can potentially serve as economic, social, and cultural development which can subsequently lead to motives needed to have larger families and greater working population. Although, the rapidly expanding population has been linked to issues including, unemployment, poverty, water scarcity, undernourishment, urban pollution, and the soaring domestic use of energy.

Iran can grasp the opportunity primarily by taking the most out of its human capital and economy for creating new employment possibilities and economic growth.

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