It was already known that Iran’s shipments were surging, but the data for August would represent a marked leg higher if maintained for the remainder of the period. The flow rate for the past 28 days shows shipments running at a rate of 2.1 million barrels a day, the Bloomberg report said.

As reported, TankerTrackers’ satellite images show a new surge in Iran’s flows in August amid the reduction in the supplies of other top exporters.

Bloomberg added that the increase in Iran’s shipments will boost global supply when Saudi Arabia and Russia curb output.

Earlier this month, Bloomberg reported that China’s oil imports from Iran have been soaring in August so that the shipments are expected to reach 1.5 million bpd, the highest since 2013.

Citing estimates from data intelligence firm Kpler, Blomberg put China’s imports of Iranian oil during the January-July 2023 period at 917,000 bpd on average.

Iran has been ramping up oil exports this year as it becomes more geopolitically assertive, with most of the shipments heading to China, Bloomberg said.

In late July, Kpler said that Iran’s oil shipments to China have more than tripled over the past three years despite the U.S. sanctions on the country and the increase in Russia’s shipments to the Asian country.

According to the data analyzing firm, Iranian crude exports to its major trade partner have been hovering around one million bpd in 2023, while the figure was roughly 325,000 bpd in 2020.

Also, the International Energy Agency (IEA) in a recent report titled “Oil 2023” confirmed Iran’s daily export of one million barrels of oil to China, saying: “Despite severe financial restrictions, Iran managed to increase its crude oil production by about 140,000 barrels per day in 2022 to an average of 2.5 million barrels per day. It seems that Tehran has maintained its crude sales to China, which has been around one million barrels per day since the third quarter of last year.”

According to official data, Iranian oil production also increased in the current year so that in May the country’s oil output reached 2.9 bpd, 350,000 bpd more than in 2022.

Earlier in April, Bloomberg reported that “Chinese private refineries are buying more Iranian oil despite the rising competition for supplies from Russia.”

“So-called teapots are prioritizing the flows, with Russian supplies getting pricier as mainstream buyers such as state-owned Chinese refiners and Indian processors take a greater share,” the report read.

In March, China’s imports of Iranian crude and condensate jumped 20 percent month-on-month to 800,000 barrels a day, and are on track to extend gains in coming months, Emma Li, an analyst with data intelligence firm Vortexa Ltd told Bloomberg that month.

While Iranian oil has long been sanctioned by the U.S., refiners in China have proved to be a consistent outlet.

Most Iranian oil used to go to state-owned refineries but “the private refiners in Shandong especially are now running the show,” said Homayoun Falakshahi, senior crude oil analyst at Kpler.

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The report claims that Iranian oil tankers have shipped at least $22 billion worth of oil only to China since 2021. The Iranian Oil Ministry, however, does not reject or approve the mentioned figure.

Although the statistics mentioned by the western media and press are not completely accurate, they indicate the increase in the Islamic Republic’s oil exports despite sanctions, Oil Ministry’s news portal Shana reported on Thursday.

According to Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, the country’s oil exports have increased by 40 percent in recent months.

The term “ghost ships”, previously used by other publications such as The Wall Street Journal and Reuters, refers to Iranian oil tankers which carry cargoes around the world without being detected.

Earlier this month, the Managing Director of the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) praised the significant role of the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) in bypassing sanctions and boosting the country’s oil exports during the previous Iranian calendar year (ended on March 20).

“This success (increased sales of oil and gas condensate) came at a time when the sanction conditions have become even stricter,” Mohsen Khojasteh-Mehr said.

Iranian oil production increases by 7,000 barrels

Iran has been ramping up its oil production over the past few months following the recovery of the global markets from the negative impacts of the coronavirus pandemic and the developments in the Vienna talks.

The country’s crude oil production in March reached 2.546 million barrels per day (bpd) to register a 7,000-barrel increase compared to the figure for February, according to OPEC’s latest monthly report.

Iran produced 2.539 million bpd of crude oil in February, the report said citing secondary sources.

The Islamic Republic’s average crude output for the first quarter of 2022 stood at 2.528 million bpd indicating a 56,000-bpd increase compared to the figure for the fourth quarter of the previous year, the report indicated.

The country’s heavy crude oil price also increased by $19.36 in March, to register a 20.8 percent rise compared to the previous month, according to the OPEC report.

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The national and strategic project for the transfer of crude oil from Goreh in southwestern Bushehr province to Jask terminal in southern Hormozgan province, with the support and leadership of the Ministry of Oil and the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) was implemented benefiting from the highest domestic capabilities.

Goreh-Jask pipeline project is going to provide Iran with an alternative route for the country’s crude oil exports that are currently carried out through the Strait of Hormuz. The pipeline will open a new gate for Iranian oil to the Indian Ocean by transferring it from Goreh in Bushehr Province to Jask on the shores of Oman Gulf.

Implementation of this project took place with about $2 billion investment, and with the aim of creating a daily export capacity of one million barrels of crude oil through the new Jask terminal, ensuring continued oil exports, decentralization of export terminals and diversification of oil export  centers, sustainable development and job creation on the shores of Makran, where a capacity of 300,000 barrels of oil (per day) has been provided so far, and this capacity will gradually increase to one million barrels in the near future.

The share of more than 90 percent of domestic manufacturing and maximum use of the power of Iranian contractors and manufacturers is one of the most important features of this national plan; 250 contractors and domestic manufacturers have participated in the project’s implementation and by relying on domestic capabilities, the equipment and goods required for the project were manufactured domestically for the first time in the country.

Another notable feature that stands out in this national plan is building about 1,000 kilometers of crude oil transmission pipeline and putting it into operation in less than two years, with full reliance on domestic capabilities.

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Zanganeh made the remarks after attending the 17th meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their non-oil allies known as OPEC+, which was held via videoconferencing on Tuesday.

Commenting on the issues discussed in the meeting, the official said: “It was a short meeting, mostly influenced by the imminent return of the Islamic republic to the oil market.”

Pointing to the remarks by OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo that Iran’s return should be orderly and transparent, Zanganeh said: “We are transparent, and will certainly take all necessary measures to be orderly, like our other activities.”

According to the minister, the OPEC+ meeting concluded with a decision not to increase production despite a prospect of a better economic situation in the coming months.

“Iran, Venezuela, and Libya are still exempted from the production restrictions,” Zanganeh confirmed.

At their 15th meeting, OPEC+ had agreed to increase their daily output by 350,000 barrels in May, 350,000 barrels in June, and 450,000 barrels in July.

The Iranian minister said that the next meeting of OPEC+ will be held in July.

Iran is gradually boosting crude oil production to get ready for a strong comeback into the global market as the talks with world powers over the 2015 nuclear deal show signs of progress.

Back in May, officials from the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) had stated that the country’s oil fields are going through overhaul operations and connections with oil buyers are being re-established, according to a report by Bloomberg.

“In the most optimistic estimates, the country could return to pre-sanctions production levels of almost four million barrels a day in as little as three months,” the report said.

Iran and other signatories of the 2015 nuclear deal, including the United States, are currently negotiating in Vienna and the two sides have signaled that an agreement is within reach.

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In the event of confirmation of the lifting of sanctions, “we start our consideration and [the resumption of Iranian oil imports] could come as early as in three months,” Tsutomu Sugimori told an online press conference Thursday.

Sugimori’s comments came as negotiations between Iran and world powers on the 2015 nuclear deal are underway in Vienna and the two sides signal that an agreement is within reach.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on May 20 a “main agreement” has been made to reinstate a nuclear deal as the U.S. has broadly committed to lifting its sanctions targeting Iran’s oil, petrochemical and shipping sectors.

Japan’s top three refiners ENEOS, Idemitsu Kosan, and Cosmo Oil said on May 21 that they would consider the potential resumption of Iranian oil imports once there was confirmation of sanctions being lifted.

“Although it depends on the formal decision of lifting the U.S. sanctions as well as the details, we will closely coordinate with the Japanese government, financial institutions, and shipping companies,” an Idemitsu Kosan official said.

Japan suspended its Iranian oil imports in May 2019 after briefly resuming imports in February for the first time in four months, as the U.S. did not extend its 180-day sanctions waiver to eight countries, including Japan, beyond early May.

Japan’s 2019 Iranian oil imports totaled 17.10 million barrels, down 63.2 percent from 46.51 million barrels in 2018, according to the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry data.

The return of Iranian condensate, as well as many other crude grades, to the market, will likely set the stage for new competition for the Asian demand pie, prompting major producers to make competitive offers, which would significantly enhance Asian refiners’ feedstock economics and overall product margins, according to refinery officials and trading sources in China, South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong and India.

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According to a Bloomberg report, National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) officials have stated that the country’s oil fields are going through overhaul operations and connections with oil buyers are being re-established.

“In the most optimistic estimates, the country could return to pre-sanctions production levels of almost four million barrels a day in as little as three months,” the report said.

Iran and other signatories of the 2015 nuclear deal, including the United States, are currently negotiating in Vienna and the two sides have signaled that an agreement is within reach.

If successful, the negotiations could reactivate the nuclear deal that Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from in 2018. That would require the U.S to lift all the sanctions imposed by the former president.

Iran has been ramping up its oil production over the past few months following the recent developments in the White House and also the recovery of the global markets from the negative impacts of the coronavirus pandemic.

The increase in the production has been followed by a boost in exports so that in late April Reuters reported that Iranian crude oil exports in the mentioned month had remained above the level of exports during the same period in 2020.

Earlier this month, Iran’s First Vice-President Eshaq Jahangiri said the country was able to increase its oil exports up to 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) once the U.S. sanctions are lifted.

“Oil sales have dropped a lot, but now the situation is better, and we are in control. We will be able to increase oil exports to 2.5 million barrels per day after the removal of the sanctions,” Jahangiri said.

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The official noted that the oil ministry has adopted new tactics and new destinations in shipping its oil exports following the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions, giving no details of the new tactics or destinations.

“Of course, it cannot be denied that the loading of oil and products has fallen compared to the past, but the shipping of oil cargoes from out ports has definitely not stopped,” he added.

Iranian oil industry has been under pressure from the U.S. efforts to isolate the country by reimposing sanctions. The new round of sanctions targeting Iran’s oil sector were put in action on November 4, 2018.

In late April, U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration announced that Washington has decided not to extend waivers allowing major importers to continue buying oil from Iran. The waivers ended on May 2.

Earlier this month, Iranian Deputy Oil Minister Amir-Hossein Zamaninia said Iran is mobilizing all its resources to sell its oil in a gray market, countering unjust and illegitimate U.S. sanctions.
“This is not smuggling. This is countering sanctions which we do not see as just or legitimate”, Zamaninia said in a conference held at the Islamic Azad University of Tehran.

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“Trump is struggling to win the next [presidential] elections” in 2020, the official said.

He noted that Washington’s plans to “take over Venezuela, cause trouble in Libya, and establishing martial law in Sudan” are all intended to boost support for U.S. sanctions against Iran.

Iran has said it may close the Strait of Hormuz if prevented from using the waterway, which links crude producers in the Middle East to markets in Europe, Asia Pacific, North America and beyond.

In a recent interview with Reuters, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said that Iran was “not going to take any action” should the U.S. continue observing the rules of engagement.

Earlier this month, the Trump administration announced it will end waivers on crude purchase granted to Iran’s primary oil buyers in a bid to push Tehran oil sales to zero.
The waivers currently issued for China, Greece, India, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Turkey expire on May 2.

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Earlier on Sunday, Washington Post reported that U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is going to announce that “as of May 2, the State Department will no longer grant sanctions waivers to any country that is currently importing Iranian crude or condensate.”

Following that report, Reuters confirmed the news, citing a source familiar with the matter.

Asked about Iran’s possible actions in response to U.S. plans for tightening the grip on the country’s oil industry, the source noted that there is no need for any urgent actions.

“We do not need urgent action. We have been monitoring and analyzing all possible scenarios and conditions for the advance of our country’s oil exports…. We are prepared for any situation and it is not like Iran is waiting for U.S. decisions to export its oil.” He said.

In May 2018, Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from an international deal with Iran, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and in November the sanctions were reimposed on the country’s oil sector.

Trump then announced his plan for driving Iranian oil exports to zero, however shortly after the sanctions took effect, the U.S. government granted exemptions to eight countries, allowing them to temporarily continue buying Iranian oil.

The news comes at a time that the market is already at a tight state and various factors are already contributing to the supply-demand imbalance.

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“Japan’s relationship with Iran, as one of the world’s leading oil producing countries, is important as the country (Japan) relies on almost all of its petroleum [needs] on imports,” S&P Global Platts quoted the official as saying in press conference in Tokyo on Friday.

Seko further noted that his country will take all necessary measures to avoid the negative impacts of U.S. actions on their energy supplies.

“We intend to have close discussions with the U.S. side in order to avoid having a harmful effect from the U.S. measures on Japan’s stable energy supply and its corporate activity,” he said.

Japan is among the eight countries with the U.S.’s 180-day waivers allowing them to keep importing Iranian oil through May 4. Confusion surrounding shipping, insurance and banking rules under the U.S. sanctions kept some of the countries from resuming imports for months after the U.S. granted waivers on November 5.

In February, Platts reported that Japan’s largest refiner JXTG Nippon Oil & Energy was set to resume loading of Iranian crude oil as early as Monday (February 4), almost three months after the U.S. sanctions waiver was granted.

The U.S. reimposed sanctions on Iran in November after withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear accord between the Islamic Republic and six world powers.

The sanctions targeted Iran’s oil sector, financial transactions and banks, as well as shipping and ship-building industries in order to cut off the country’s revenue sources.

The waivers are due to expire on May 2, and while Washington had previously said it would not extend the waivers to the eight countries again, it has recently adopted a more ambiguous tone about the matter. A separate waiver for Iraq, which imports both gas and oil from Iran, has been extended by America at least three times.

Iran exported 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil in March, the highest since October last year, when shipments had fallen to 1.08 million bpd, data from shipping sources compiled by S&P Global Platts showed.

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