The pandemic has compromised health care systems particularly in the area of reproductive health.

UNFPA advises against reactionary policy responses, which can be extremely harmful if they violate rights, health, and choices. The agency emphasizes that women must be empowered educationally, economically, and politically to exercise choice over their bodies and fertility.

World Population Day is observed on July 11 each year.

It took hundreds of thousands of years for the world population to grow to 1 billion – then in just another 200 years or so, it grew sevenfold. In 2011, the global population reached the 7 billion mark, and today, it stands at about 7.7 billion, and it’s expected to grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050, and 10.9 billion in 2100.

This dramatic growth has been driven largely by increasing numbers of people surviving to reproductive age and has been accompanied by major changes in fertility rates, increasing urbanization, and accelerating migration. These trends will have far-reaching implications for generations to come.

The recent past has seen enormous changes in fertility rates and life expectancy. In the early 1970s, women had on average 4.5 children each; by 2015, total fertility for the world had fallen to below 2.5 children per woman. Meanwhile, average global lifespans have risen, from 64.6 years in the early 1990s to 72.6 years in 2019.

In addition, the world is seeing high levels of urbanization and accelerating migration. 2007 was the first year in which more people lived in urban areas than in rural areas, and by 2050 about 66 percent of the world population will be living in cities.

These megatrends have far-reaching implications. They affect economic development, employment, income distribution, poverty, and social protections. They also affect efforts to ensure universal access to health care, education, housing, sanitation, water, food, and energy. To more sustainably address the needs of individuals, policymakers must understand how many people are living on the planet, where they are, how old they are, and how many people will come after them.

Zero population growth in 20 years

Iran, which is now called “middle-aged” with about 70 percent of the active population, is sounding the alarm about the declining trend of population growth and the upward trend of aging.

In 1977, the country’s population grew by 3.4 percent annually, however, suddenly, it dropped to about 1.6 percent in 2006, and a decade later, the population growth rate stood at 1.24, showing a considerable decline.

However, some experts claimed that the rate has declined to 0.6 percent in 2020.

Generally, three factors of birth, mortality, and immigration are effective in population growth.

In 1977, the average number of children per woman was 7, which reached 1.8 children in 2006, and finally, in 2016, the ratio was estimated at 1.24.

It is estimated that population growth will reach zero in 2040 and then becomes negative, so the biggest concern is that Iran’s population will age in the coming years, fertility will decline, and the population of youth will decrease.

The causes of declining fertility as increasing literacy, education, and urbanization, she said that “whenever development indicators increase in each country, the fertility rate decreases and in Iran the fertility rate has decreased.”

Demographic window of opportunity

In demography, the population under the age of 15 is called “young”. In 1977, 46 percent of the people were young, while now 23 percent of the population are below 15 years of age.

In 2006, the elderly constituted 3 percent of the population, which now increased to 8-9 percent. At that time, the population was very young and now is middle-aged.

Iran has achieved a demographic window of opportunity which in all other countries led to economic prosperity so that Iran must seize the opportunity now before its working-age population starts to shrink and get older in the 2050s.

 Highest fertility decline in human history

According to the data released by the National Organization for Civil Registration, the number of births registered during the [Iranian calendar] year 1390 (March 2011-March 2012) was equal to 1,382,118, which increased to 1,528,053 births in the [Iranian calendar] year 1395 (March 2016-March 2017).

However, the number of births in the whole country faced a downtrend over the past three years, as registered births decreased to 1,196,135 over the [Iranian calendar] year 1398 (March 2019- March 2020); a difference of roughly over 120,000 to 16,000 per year.

Nicholas Eberstadt, the Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) wrote in an article in July 2020 that the fertility rate in Iran has dropped by 70 percent over the past 30 years, which has been the highest decline in human history.

Melinda Gates, an American philanthropist and co-founder of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, also wrote on her Twitter account that “The fastest decrease in the rate of childbearing per woman in the history of the world has happened in Iran!”

Seyed Hamed Barakati, deputy health minister for family and school population, said in May that Iran’s population growth rate has decreased to less than one percent for the first time over the past four decades.

At the beginning of the Islamic Revolution (in 1979), the country’s population grew by 2.5 percent annually, however, suddenly, population growth reached about 1.5 percent in the 1980s, he highlighted.

How to reverse the trend?

Although, several plan and programs on population growth and family support have been proposed in the country to solve the downward trend of fertility, not an effective result have yet achieved.

Recently, the Majlis (Iranian Parliament) approved on March 16 to implement a population growth and family support plan for 7 years to change the declining trend of childbearing.

However, it would be a good plan if it is strictly enforced and well implemented. If it is not implemented well or only some clauses are implemented, the plan will not seem to be successful, according to Shahla Kazemipour, a demographer.

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The population that, not too long ago, was among the world’s youngest is according to some estimates going to be among the eldest in two decades if the fertility rate remains low. The Iranian Health Ministry says the rate among Iranian women has dropped 25% just over the past four years.

Based on statistics, the decline in birth rates in Iran over the past few years means the number of babies born each year is now around 1.6 percent per woman. That’s well below the 2.1 percent replacement fertility level necessary to sustain population.

The director general of the ministry’s department of population, family and school health described this downward trend as extremely worrisome. Hamed Barakati warned recently that Iran is running into trouble so fast that there is little time left for intervention. Economic factors seem to be at play here.

Young Iranians have been finding it increasingly difficult to get married, and more young married couples are choosing not to have babies, or have only one child. Statistics show the number of childless families or those with only one child has gone up more than 5.6 % over the past decade.

39-year-old Ahmad, a Tehran-based office worker and his 35-year-old working wife, who live in a rented flat have been married for four years. Still they cannot make up their mind about having children.

“Any couple would like to have children at some point, but we know taking care of a baby takes time and money. We cannot afford that right now,” he says. “We prefer to put it off until we are financially more stable.”

That is the story of a large number of married couples who are even lucky enough to have jobs. For young unmarried Iranians, many struggling to find jobs, the economic downturn has made it almost impossible to even start a family.

Iran’s Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei has repeatedly urged the people to have more babies, and wants officials to make it easier for families to have children. Figures show this is not happening.

The government has made it clear that it is determined to reverse this worrisome downward trend of fertility rates. But that’s easier said than done especially at a time of unprecedented economic hardship largely caused by sanctions and an inefficient system.

The Iranian currency has suffered a steep fall over the past few years and the skyrocketing rate of inflation has left many Iranian families struggling to make ends meet. The prolonged coronavirus misery is certainly adding to the long list of problems facing the Iranians.

The grim situation has led to a heightened sense of uncertainty about the future and this widespread sense of insecurity is fueling the problem with Iran’s population growth.

The government has been working on a package of incentives to prevent population decline. Authorities are planning to offer low interest loans for each newly-born baby and grant a piece of land to parents who have a third child among other steps.

Even if the government is serious about averting this emerging national crisis, success is not guaranteed. Because it could take much more than such incentives – maybe a meaningful improvement in standard of living in Iran- to convince families to get onboard.

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“Replacement level fertility” is the total fertility rate—the average number of children born per woman—at which a population replaces itself from one generation to the next, without migration. This rate is roughly 2.1 children per woman for most countries, although it may modestly vary with mortality rates. The rate refers to the total fertility rate that will result in a stable population without it increasing or decreasing.

Announcing the results of a research on ‘changes in population status’, Mohammad Jalal Abbasi highlighted that fertility rate has had a growing trend in recent years and that the replacement-level fertility has been achieved.

This in-depth research encompasses areas such as changes in fertility and childbirth rate, family and marriage variations, mortality and health status, domestic migration, urbanization, and population trends, ISNA news agency quoted Abbasi as saying.

The official went on to say that the growing trend of fertility rate in Iran can be a temporary result of modifying delayed childbearing and that taking measures to facilitate marriage and childbirth are needed to stabilize this rate.

Looking into the figures and numbers pertaining to fertility rate before (13)90s (2011 and before that) the rate have gone up over the past 6 years. From 2014 to 2016 the rate has grown to 2.08 while in a 5-year period the rate has reached 2.01, Abbasi added.

Normal fertility pattern 

Touching upon the fact that fertility pattern in Iran is normal, the chairman added that 30 percent of couples have one or no child, 30-33 percent have two children and nearly 33 percent have more than two, he added.

An expert in demography Meimanat Hosseini explained that 50 percent of Iranian women give birth to their first child before they are 22 and more than 70 percent of women give birth to their second child and just 45 percent have the third.

Results of the research also shows that fertility rate and education level have an inverse correlation in Iran, she mentioned; i.e. as the education level grows the fertility rate of women reduces.

Iran’s population aging

Analysis of 2016 census showed that average age of Iranians has increased. Census reports indicate that the number of persons, aged 60 years or older, has increased by 1.5-fold over the past decade (2006-2016) in Iran.

In 2006, some 5.1 million people were 60 or older, but the number rose to 6.1 million in 2011 and to 7.4 million in 2016. Currently, the country’s total population stands at about 80 million, of which some 9.3 percent is 60 or older.

Overcoming this problem requires providing facilitators for marriage while tackling other issues such as housing and employment.

In 2014, Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Ali Khamenei outlined general policies of the country’s population plans. The plan emphasized the need for taking effective measures to improve the country’s economic, social and cultural situations based on the new population policies.

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