Last week, the United Nations said the official civilian death toll from the Ukraine war has risen to nearly 6,900, with civilian injuries topping 10,000.

Whilst the death of military forces in Ukraine has been difficult to verify, the number of soldiers thought to have died in Ukraine is estimated at 25,000-30,000 for each side.

The Economist modeled the effect of the unprecedented hike in gas and electricity bills this winter and concluded that the current cost of energy will likely lead to an extra 147,000 deaths if it is a typical winter.

Should Europe experience a particularly harsh winter, which is something likely when considering the growing effects of climate change, that number could rise to 185,000. That is a rise of 6.0%. It also reports that a harsh winter could cost a total of 335,000 extra lives.

Even in the rare case of a mild winter, that figure would still be high with tens of thousands of extra deaths than in previous years. If it is a mild winter, research by The Economic indicates the death toll would be 79,000.

The Economist’s statistical model included all 27 European Union member countries along with the United Kingdom, Switzerland, and Norway.

It is anticipated that Governments across Western Europe would be alarmed and concerned by these shocking figures published by the study.

But it remains to be seen what measures these governments will take to prevent so many extra fatalities in their own countries because of the energy shortage.

The energy crisis itself began when Europe, which was heavily reliant on Russian gas, imposed heavy sanctions on Russian energy exports following Moscow’s war in Ukraine. Before the war, Russia supplied 40-50% of the EU’s natural-gas imports. One of Europe’s strongest economies, Germany for example, had become dependent on Moscow’s gas flows and had no Plan B.

The move clearly backfired on Western economies, with inflation reaching record levels not seen in decades, mainly as a result of the soaring energy prices. That has left pensioners and other poorer as well as middle-class income households facing a choice of putting food on the table this winter or heating their homes.

The study by The Economist says that despite European attempts to stockpile as much gas as possible to fill their storage facilities, many consumers are still being hurt by the rise in wholesale energy costs.

It adds that even as market prices for fuel have slightly declined from their peaks, the real average residential European gas and electricity costs are 144% and 78% above the figures for 2000-19.

As it is being hurt the most, Europe could take serious and concrete efforts to push both Kyiv and Moscow to the negotiating table and hold peace talks that would bring an end to the war.

That would ease a lot of problems facing the continent – and the world – from energy shortages to the global food supply chain disrupted by the war.

However, critics argue, this would backfire on many Western arms manufacturers who are making lucrative profits from their weapons shipments to the warzone.

There are many officials and other influential figures in the West, especially the U.S. congress (despite America not being included in a study by The Economist), who have links to arms manufacturers; which makes the possibility of peace somewhat unlikely.

While the United States has sent weapons to the tune of $40 billion dollars, European countries show no sign of opting for peace with the new British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, the latest to announce plans of maintaining or increasing military aid to Ukraine next year

The other course of action is for Western governments to ease the cost-of-living crisis by spending more on social welfare and hiking the tax rates for the rich.

This would save lives by allowing families to heat their homes but many Western governments are taking the opposite route, by claiming they need to cut spending in order to strengthen economic growth in the long run.

As things stand, the new research by the Economist will add to the fears already facing families in Europe ahead of the winter season. The lower the temperatures will be in Western Europe, the more likely it will be that higher-than-usual death tolls are going to hit the continent.

As The Economist notes, although heatwaves get more press coverage, cold temperatures are usually deadlier than hot ones. Between December and February, 21% more Europeans die per week than from June to August.

The report says that in the past, changes in energy prices had a minor effect on mortality rates in Europe. But this year’s hikes to household bills are remarkably large.

The Ukraine conflict has exposed other massive costs that have accompanied the violence. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development estimates that the world economy in 2023 will be US$2.8 trillion smaller than was estimated in December 2021, before the fighting erupted in February.

The British weekly newspaper, which built a statistical model to assess the effects of the sharp rise in energy prices, forecasts deaths based on weather, demography, influenza, energy efficiency, incomes, government spending, and electricity costs, which are closely correlated to prices for a wide variety of heating fuels.

It used data from 2000-19, (excluding 2020 and 2021 because of covid-19) and says the model was highly accurate, accounting for 90% of the variation in death rates.

High fuel prices can exacerbate the effect of low temperatures on deaths, by deterring people from using heat and raising their exposure to cold.

It says that with average weather, the study found a 10% rise in electricity prices is associated with a 0.6% increase in deaths, though this number is greater in cold weeks and smaller in mild ones.

In recent decades’ consumer energy prices have had only a modest impact on winter mortality, because energy prices have moved or swung back and forth in a regular rhythm.

In a typical European country, increasing fuel prices from their lowest level in 2000-19 reduce the temperature from the highest level in that period to the lowest which means colder weather increases the death rate by 12%.

The study cites the case of Italy, where electricity bills have surged to nearly 200% since 2020, extending the situation, which it said was a linear relationship that yields extremely high death estimates. It has been reported that the country will suffer the most extra deaths. The results show that Italy, which has an older population along with soaring higher electricity prices makes it the most vulnerable.

Other countries such as Estonia and Finland are also expected to suffer from higher fatalities on a per-person basis. People in Britain and France will also be affected. The model for the effects of fatalities from high energy costs did not include Ukraine.

However, damage to the energy infrastructure in Ukraine as a result of the war, will also certainly have a dire humanitarian effect on Ukrainians as well.

Over the past weeks, many reports have emerged citing Europeans as saying they will be forced to switch the heating off because of the high fuel prices, essentially exacerbating the effect of cold temperatures on deaths by raising people’s exposure to low temperatures.

The most vulnerable people in Europe, the elderly and those living alone or on low pay to medium paychecks will pay the highest price: Death.

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The public despair in Europe is being directed at government policies as energy costs skyrocket out of control ahead of the chilly winter season. The risks of civil unrest, including street protests and demonstrations, in Europe’s richest nations is rising, a risk consultancy firm says.

According to Verisk Maplecroft’s principal analyst Torbjorn Soltvedt, Germany and Norway are among the developed economies witnessing disruptions to everyday life because of labour actions, something already seen in the United Kingdom.

Verisk’s latest report on its civil unrest index, which assesses the risk of disruption to business caused by the mobilisation of societal groups, finds more than 50 percent of the countries covered experienced an increase in mass mobilisations risk, the highest on the company’s records.

“Over the winter, it wouldn’t come as a surprise if some of the developed nations in Europe start to see more serious forms of civil unrest,” Soltvedt says.
More in Common, a non-profit organization, has asked the views more than 7,000 people in France, Germany, Poland and the UK. The polls show the severity of the crisis.
A majority expressed their concern of social unrest over the coming months because of rising inflation spearheaded by the energy crisis. In all four countries surveyed people said the cost of living is now the most important issue facing their country.

“Many are already struggling to cope; having to draw from savings or skip meals, particularly among disengaged and low-trust segments of the population… the vast majority believe this won’t be a short crisis, with many seeing no end in sight.” said a report from More in Common.

The survey points out that Europeans have lost confidence in their governments’ ability to handle the crisis. Few expect rising inflation to end any time soon, with over one in three people surveyed uncertain that it will ever end.

Workers across the UK are continuing to strike, demanding higher wages. According to the trade union Unite, some 1,600 bus drivers in London used the August bank holiday weekend between 27 and 28 August, to strike following similar strike action the previous weekend.

Unite general secretary Sharon Graham says “the two words that unite all the individual strikes taking place are ‘pay cuts’. Workers are simply no longer prepared to accept poverty wages, especially when they know employer after employer is guilty of rampant profiteering.”

She adds that “there could be hundreds of disputes involving tens of thousands of workers over the coming months if employers continue to offer real terms wage cuts presented as pay increases. Graham also warns “It’s time to stop telling workers to pay the price for inflation and instead do something to tackle excessive profiteering.

British rail workers are set to stage a fresh round of strikes on September 15 and 17 in a dispute over pay, jobs and conditions, the National Union of Rail, Maritime and Transport Workers (RMT) says.

The RMT says over 40,000 of its members will walk out across the country “effectively shutting down the railway network.” More than 560 dockworkers at the Port of Liverpool, one of Britain’s largest container docks, are also among the public workers taking industrial action in this month.

In France, media reports say transport and public services workers are set to protest across the country throughout September demanding better pay. Unions such as the CGT are pushing for public services workers go on strike.

European inflation was already high in the aftermath of the Coronavirus pandemic. However, prices have increased further after Europe imposed sanctions on Russian energy supplies in the aftermath of the Ukraine conflict. The fighting broke out after Moscow warned against the eastward expansion of the U.S.-led NATO military alliance toward its border.

Critics say America is the biggest beneficiary of the conflict as it makes a generous profit on energy sales while at the same time managed to finally prevent Russian energy from flowing to Europe.

German protesters have gathered in the country’s municipality of Lubmin in the country’s north east at the site of Nord Stream gas pipeline terminal from Russia.

They have called for the opening of Nord Stream 2, a new pipeline which was about to go operational, despite Washington’s pressure on Berlin, but has been blocked by the German government after the conflict broke out.

At a rally, speakers called for a ban on exports of weapons to Ukraine and the resignation of the federal government. On the energy crisis, the protesters demanded the Nord Stream 2 pipeline be put into operation immediately and that no LNG terminals be built offshore.

Footage shows the participants waving German and Russian flags. Slogans such “Nord Stream 2 instead of fracking gas” and “Your sanctions hit us” were seen on banners.

Meanwhile, tens of thousands of Czechs protested in Prague against the European Union and the NATO military alliance. They demanded help with rising energy bills, the largest manifestation of public discontent over inflation.

About 70,000 people filled Wenceslas Square in the center of the Czech capital, according to police estimates, holding signs denouncing the country’s membership of the EU and the NATO military alliance, while demanding military neutrality over the conflict in Ukraine.

Czech inflation is currently the highest since 1993 and the central bank forecasts it to peak at around 20 percent in the coming months. Organizers have vowed to stage further rallies unless the government steps down.

Last week, the county’s justice minister, Pavel Blažek, who is also a member of the prime minister’s party, warned of the risk of riots and the fall of the government in the absence of an urgent solution to the winter energy crisis. “If the energy crisis is not resolved, the political system of this country is at risk,” he said.

Demonstrations elsewhere in Europe saw around 8,000 people march in Budapest in solidarity with Hungary’s teachers, who say they are facing low pay and poor working conditions. Teachers in neighboring Poland say they face a similar problem.

The ferocious rise in the cost of living crisis has shaken people in Spain where the conservative opposition has surged to a poll lead of almost nine points ahead of next year’s general election.

Inflation is high on the list of worries among Swedes voting in the general election on September 11. Parties are rushing with promises to ease the pain but take a risk with short term measures that may have long term costs on the country’s economy.

Other places the inflation impact is being felt in politics include the UK where a new poll shows only 12 percent of Britons expect new PM Truss to be a great or good prime minister, with half (52 percent) expecting her to be poor or terrible.

And the crisis may linger on; last week, the chief executive of Shell predicted that Europe is headed for a multi-winter energy crisis. “It may well be that we will have a number of winters where we have to somehow find solutions,” Ben van Beurden told a news conference.

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