TEHRAN (Iran News) But a very sick economy is one in which the supply of goods cannot keep pace with this excess demand, and the economic authorities also benefit generally from the rising prices, implementing a type of management that tries to solve the budget deficit problem through price increases.

In developing economies, a major part of money supply growth arises from government budget deficits and financing them through banks, particularly the central bank.

In other words, the injected money mostly flows not toward productive investment, but toward speculation in asset markets such as housing, foreign currency, and gold and silver coins. As a result, this leads to price bubbles in these markets and intensifies inflation.

Rising inflation reduces the value of the national currency and increasingly diminishes people’s purchasing power.

People and merchants, in order to preserve the value of their money, withdraw it from the banking system and direct it toward unproductive assets, which in turn increases the velocity of money and further fuels inflation.

In Iran, however, it is not only the people who harm the dire state of the economy; the banking system and the government themselves exacerbate the condition of this dying patient. Therefore, controlling inflation without curbing uncontrolled growth and directing liquidity toward productive purposes that can absorb it is impossible.

Curbing liquidity requires reforming the structure of the government budget and reducing its dependence on raw material exports, oil revenues, and borrowing from the banking system. Unfortunately, given the high government spending, inefficiency, structural factors, and expectations of the public, this is not feasible except through small palliative measures that act like artificial respiration.

Of course, if the Ninth Government had implemented the “Justice Shares” program the way I proposed, both income inequality would have decreased, and the private sector would have been largely separated from the government. The government could have implemented a small and agile plan for itself, taken control of the reins of the unruly economy, and reduced tensions.

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TEHRAN (Iran News) The report indicates that production and service output in September continued to shrink due to limited financial resources, power outages, and weak domestic demand.

The new orders index fell for the 19th consecutive month, though the pace of decline was milder than in August. It remains near its lowest level in recent years, mainly due to reduced consumer purchasing power amid high inflation and rising living costs. Uncertainty surrounding the possible activation of the JCPOA “snapback” mechanism has further weakened demand confidence and discouraged new purchases.

In foreign trade, exports of goods and services — a key component of the new orders index — also declined. Despite the depreciation of the rial, which temporarily made Iranian products more competitive, ongoing challenges with foreign currency commitments, regional tensions, and export restrictions have constrained non-oil exports, particularly to neighboring countries. Businesses are concerned that renewed international measures could raise export risks, reduce foreign exchange earnings, and undermine competitiveness.

Inventories of raw materials fell for the 13th consecutive month, reaching their lowest level in 31 months (since March 2023). Persistent delays in foreign currency allocation and customs clearance of imported inputs have severely disrupted supply chains. Meanwhile, rising raw material prices, combined with tight corporate finances, have added further pressure. The cost of inputs reached its highest level in seven months, while output prices recorded their highest increase in three months, reflecting continued inflationary pressures in production.

Employment levels also fell for the fourth consecutive month, marking the fifth decline since the start of the year. The contraction is attributed to stagflationary conditions — weak demand and rising costs — that have forced firms to freeze hiring or lay off workers. The burden of high living expenses has reduced worker motivation and caused shortages of skilled labor, leading to a dual labor market: fewer job opportunities but growing demand for specialized workers. These layoffs are also straining the unemployment insurance fund under Iran’s Social Security Organization.

Finished goods inventories dropped to a four-month low, as firms drew on existing stockpiles to meet limited customer orders amid financing and production constraints.

Expectations for future economic activity fell for the third consecutive month, hitting the lowest point in 72 survey rounds. Concerns over the potential reactivation of the snapback mechanism and its economic consequences have sharply reduced business confidence and optimism.

The industrial PMI, which more precisely tracks manufacturing and factory activity, offered a slightly brighter outlook. The adjusted index for September stood at 50.6, signaling the end of a seven-month contraction and the first return to neutral territory. This suggests that while production remains fragile, the downward trend has temporarily halted.

The industrial output index rose to 53.5, the highest in 11 months, driven by improved access to energy and raw materials in certain sectors.

However, new orders remained below 50 for the 15th consecutive month, though the decline was the smallest in eight months. Expectations of future inflation slightly boosted short-term demand, but manufacturers continue to foresee limited domestic consumption due to high inflation, reduced purchasing power, and economic instability.

Employment in the industrial sector declined for the 11th consecutive month, with a sharper drop compared to August. Falling production and orders, along with liquidity shortages, have led firms to cut output and halt recruitment plans. A shortage of skilled labor persists, further complicating recovery efforts. The ongoing decline in formal employment also threatens Social Security revenues and heightens unemployment risks.

Raw material inventories fell for the 19th consecutive month, with a sharper contraction than in August. Key factors include exchange rate volatility, import delays, high customs costs, and liquidity shortages. Many firms have relied on existing stockpiles to fulfill orders but are unable to replenish supplies due to low demand and financial constraints.

Despite a modest rebound in production, finished goods inventories dropped to an eight-month low, as firms used up existing stock to meet limited demand amid uncertainty over future conditions.

Rising input costs and production expenses (including taxes) forced producers to raise prices, resulting in the highest increase in output prices in five months. Official data confirm this trend, showing that monthly inflation in September increased by 3.8 percentage points from the previous month — significantly higher than the long-term average of around 1.5–1.7 points.

Meanwhile, sales volumes rose for the first time in seven months, supported by a modest increase in domestic and export demand across select industries.

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TEHRAN (Iran News)  Parliament Research’s Center, in a report monitoring Iran’s real economic sector, has announced that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.4% in the first two months of the current Iranian year (starting on March 21) compared to the same period last year.

Additionally, non-oil economic growth was reported at 1.2%.

The agriculture sector saw a negative growth of 3.5% in value added. The crude oil and natural gas sector grew by 2.9%, while the industries and mining sector experienced a negative growth of 2.6%. The services sector recorded a growth of 3% in this period. “Iran’s economy ”

Iran’s monthly economic growth in the third month of the Iranian calendar year stood at 0.1%, while non-oil economic growth was estimated at -0.2%.

Additionally, non-oil economic growth was reported at 1.2%.

The agriculture sector saw a negative growth of 3.5% in value added. The crude oil and natural gas sector grew by 2.9%, while the industries and mining sector experienced a negative growth of 2.6%. The services sector recorded a growth of 3% in this period. “Iran’s economy ”

Iran’s monthly economic growth in the third month of the Iranian calendar year stood at 0.1%, while non-oil economic growth was estimated at -0.2%.

Additionally, non-oil economic growth was reported at 1.2%.

The agriculture sector saw a negative growth of 3.5% in value added. The crude oil and natural gas sector grew by 2.9%, while the industries and mining sector experienced a negative growth of 2.6%. The services sector recorded a growth of 3% in this period. “Iran’s economy ”

Iran’s monthly economic growth in the third month of the Iranian calendar year stood at 0.1%, while non-oil economic growth was estimated at -0.2%.

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TEHRAN (Iran News) Mohseni Ejei highlighted the unparalleled contribution of cultural heritage and handicrafts to elevating Iran’s Islamic civilization. “We, as officials and servants of the system, need to listen more than we speak. Today, we must better understand our society, its capacities, talents, and innovations,” he said. He stressed that recognizing the challenges faced by all segments of society is essential for officials to fulfill their responsibilities effectively.

Addressing the significant role of Iranian women, Mohseni Ejei noted, “Women make up half of our society. Do we, as system officials, fully recognize their talents and capabilities?” He underscored their importance as a key and influential demographic in the country.

The Judiciary Chief also called for greater efforts to introduce Iran’s rich cultural and civilizational heritage—spanning thousands of years and encompassing over a million cultural and archaeological artifacts—to both the Iranian people and the global community. “We must protect and preserve our rich cultural heritage more diligently so that future generations take pride in our stewardship,” he added.

Mohseni Ejei identified the economy and people’s livelihoods as the nation’s top priority, asserting that tourism is a key industry capable of bolstering economic foundations and generating sustainable jobs. “We must leverage tourism’s potential to boost the country’s foreign exchange resources,” he said, while cautioning that this development should not come at the expense of Iran’s cultural and religious values or allow foreign cultural infiltration.

He further explained that a thriving tourism and handicraft sector could lead to sustainable employment, which in turn would help reduce social issues. “The prosperity of tourism and handicrafts can create lasting jobs, significantly contributing to alleviating social anomalies,” he remarked.

Turning to handicrafts, Mohseni Ejei described them as a blend of art, talent, knowledge, and human virtues, suggesting that the term “handicrafts” might undervalue their significance. “Perhaps we should choose a more exalted name for this art,” he proposed. Drawing from personal experience, he recalled weaving carpets with his sisters during childhood, noting how artisans, like engineers or mathematicians, perfect their craft with precision and creativity.

He emphasized the grassroots nature of the handicraft economy, stating, “We constantly stress that the economy must be people-driven—what could be more people-centric than handicrafts? It requires minimal investment, and most importantly, it strengthens family foundations.”

Mohseni Ejei praised the potential of the Ministry of Cultural Heritage, Tourism, and Handicrafts, suggesting it could be harnessed to better showcase Islamic Iran and counter “Iranophobia.” “As more tourists visit Iran, the negative propaganda of enemies and adversaries is neutralized,” he said.

He pledged the Judiciary’s support for the tourism and handicraft sectors, stating, “We are prepared to collaborate with relevant authorities to remove obstacles and address challenges facing these industries. We also stand ready to enhance efforts to protect our rich cultural and civilizational heritage.”

Highlighting the need to resolve issues faced by foreign tourists, Mohseni Ejei noted that visitors unfamiliar with Iran’s laws and norms might encounter legal difficulties. “We are willing to work with the Ministry to address these legal challenges,” he said, adding that initial steps should include familiarizing tourists with Iran’s regulations. He also committed to bolstering security measures for foreign visitors.

The Judiciary Chief urged stakeholders in the tourism and handicraft industries to appoint representatives for brainstorming sessions with judicial officials to tackle sector-specific problems collaboratively.

In closing, Mohseni Ejei reiterated that resolving Iran’s economic challenges is nearly impossible without private sector and public participation. “The Judiciary considers it a duty to assist the private sector, remove production barriers, and support a production leap,” he said, extending this commitment to those active in handicrafts and tourism.

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TEHRAN (Iran News) Trump as president does not have direct effects on Iran’s economy because we do not have any direct commercial, monetary and financial cooperation with the United States and Europe, Farzin told during a televised interview on Saturday night.”Iranian ”

The CBI chief, however, acknowledged that global economies and financial markets can feel the heat in case of the change in policy by the incoming US administration.

As you have seen, cryptocurrencies reacted to the arrival of Trump with Bitcoin experiencing a 20% increase, but our exchange rate only reacted by 1%, he said, arguing that part of the fear in markets was caused by the policies of Trump’s previous tenure.

Farzin, although, warned about a severe impact on global markets as well as the economies of China and Europe if Trump renews his past policies related to trade and commerce, especially his tariff regime.

His remarks are in line with western financial experts who have also warned that Trump’s victory will lead to a risky time for the United States and rest of the world and any attempt by him to impose higher tariffs can lead to higher prices of goods for general consumers.

On the domestic front, the head of Iran’s Central Bank expressed hopes that the country’s inflation will decrease to 30% by the yearend and then to 20%.

Today, our dependencies have decreased a lot and we have expanded regional interactions, and in the BRICS too, we have taken forward good activities and already made necessary preparations for the beginning of this era, Farzin underscored.

“Part of our cooperation with the BRICS member countries has been implemented and we have removed the dollar from commercial transaction with some countries,” he said, adding that although Iran is waiting to see America’s policies toward the region, the country’s forex reserves have increased and it has taken all necessary steps to manage the economy.

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Based on the WB data, the economic growth of West Asian and North African countries has decreased from 5.8 percent in 2022 to 1.9 percent in 2023, indicating that Iran’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2023 has been more than twice the economic growth of this region.

“Growth picked up in the Islamic Republic of Iran, as increases in oil production and exports more than offset weak external non-oil demand,” the report said.

According to the estimates of this international organization, following the global economy, Iran’s economic growth is also expected to recede slightly to 3.7 percent in 2024. The Islamic Republic’s GDP growth in 2022 was 3.8 percent.

The economic growth of Europe and Central Asia, which decreased from 7.1 percent in 2021 to 1.2 percent in 2022, has also grown slightly to 2.7 this year however the figure is seen to fall to 2.4 percent in 2024.

According to the report, global growth is projected to slow for the third year in a row—from 2.6 percent last year to 2.4 percent in 2024, almost three-quarters of a percentage point below the average of the 2010s. Developing economies are projected to grow just 3.9 percent, more than one percentage point below the average of the previous decade.

“After a disappointing performance last year, low-income countries should grow 5.5 percent, weaker than previously expected. By the end of 2024, people in about one out of every four developing countries and about 40 percent of low-income countries will still be poorer than they were on the eve of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019. In advanced economies, meanwhile, growth is set to slow to 1.2 percent this year from 1.5 percent in 2023,” the WB stated.

“As the world nears the midpoint of what was intended to be a transformative decade for development, the global economy is set to rack up a sorry record by the end of 2024 —the slowest half-decade of GDP growth in 30 years,” the entity said.

By one measure, the global economy is in a better place than it was a year ago: the risk of a global recession has receded, largely because of the strength of the U.S. economy. But mounting geopolitical tensions could create fresh near-term hazards for the world economy, according to the report.

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Based on the report, Iranian economy has improved 10 places among the world’s 191 countries to stand at the 90th place above the UK, the Netherland and Hungary.

The Islamic Republic stood at the 100th place among the world’s economies in 2022, according to the IMF’s previous reports.

The fund had estimated the Islamic Republic’s GDP growth at 2.5 percent for 2023, in its previous report published in July.

The entity also revised its estimation for the Islamic Republic’s economic growth in 2022, putting the country’s GDP growth for the mentioned year at 3.8 percent. In the July report, Iran’s economic growth for 2022 was estimated to be 3.5 percent.

The 3.8 percent growth of Iran’s economy in 2022 was higher than the average growth of the world economy this year and more than the economic growth of many countries, including Canada, China, Germany, South Korea, and the United States.

The report has said inflation in Iran which was reported to be 45.8 percent in 2022 is expected to increase to 47 percent in 2023 and then fall to 32.5 percent in 2024.

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The debate heated up and both respected intellectuals debated on the topic of base of prices and the way of government’s manipulation in influencing the idea of free market in the economy but the debate was more an argument than a debate because both sides considered each other pre-convicted of insulating their opinions on the structure of economic decision-makers of the government and therefor a hugger mugger picture from the economy has been painted.

In fact, both sides with their own languages (bringing it but not mentioning it) were painting this picture that Iran’s economy has no clear definition of any economic school. Toghyani was accusing the other side of being a Marxist and in return Jebraeeli was accusing Toghyani of being a pro-liberalism capitalist. Of course both sides did not spare anything to undermine the talks and doctrine of the other side.

I believe these two ways of view regarding the debate topic from the rough-and-tumble economic team of the government in the issue of economy, which has been actually comprised of a political team than an economic-wise, leads to this that all definitions in Iran’s economic bed have more political goals than economic ones. In other words, few officials are found to lay a stable rail for persistent economic decisions.

During the all past 45 years, most of decisions made in the field of economy in Iran has had political flavor. The Islamic Republic of Iran in its foreign policy whether right or wrong has followed a certain and defined policy and coincidentally in establishing the anti-West culture has achieved massive successes both for Asia and the region but in taking economic decisions in fact it has acted like a storm-hit downwind boat in the money sea and has gone ahead till now and the reason why it has not collapsed yet is reliance on injection of petro-dollars.

If I were to express a bold opinion, I could claim that this bewilderment and confusion has cost a great deal for the country. The proof for this issue that can be mentioned is some $2,000b of oil and non-oil sales have not even led to completion of 30% of the infrastructures. I put growth in military and nuclear structure and to some extent growth in scientific, industrial and agriculture structures in the mentioned 30%. Despite it, this 30% growth has helped to maintain the hegemony of the revolution in Iran and to some extent in the region and I claim if we moved in the direction of a defined economy, at least we would not have had the current domestic problems and both sanctions and media hostilities could have less destructive efforts on the trend of materializing the goals of our Islamic Revolution.

On this issue, I do not have any intention to analyze the past wrong actions. I see the mentality of the 13th government in supporting production and approach to privatization different from the past governments but it does not mean that I do not see the problems in decision making of the government in orienting the economy.

The previous governments had raised many problem statements in front of Iranian nation without any solutions for them and I should say God willing the plague of their presence has been eradicated and today the government, Majlis and Judiciary are preparing some intermittent solutions for some of these issues and have turned into crisis managers.

Economy also like foreign policy should find a single voice to move in a clear and bright direction. The views of Marxism and socialism are also unable to save the economy and it costs heavy because it leaves fundamental distortions on the axes of creating obstruction. Essentially I should tell that Marxists divide the world into two groups and say the first group is exploiter and the second one is the exploited and therefore history in all of the past periods has been nothing but class struggle between the exploiters and exploited people, it means, economic interests of some people necessitates to remain in the same stage and are opposed to the progress of production tools (ruling exploiter group) and one group wants growth and progress of production tools and getting rid of the current condition  (the exploited group) and this leads to repeated conflicts and struggles which leads to a new system (new society) where beside production tools, economic, culture, traditions and religious interests and thought, in one word, change comparing to the previous society; and after a while, again this new system changes its path after fight, war and bloodshed which it itself has been the main factor behind it and it converts into a new system in the form and not in the content.

Regressive and reactionary trend of these transformations are very obvious in the underdeveloped countries comparing to the developed ones. The economy which is fatherly run is a consumerist one and consumption economy has no tendency towards innovation and creativity in developing production tools. With this definition, one can unequivocally say that Marxism is not an economic school and emitted socialism from it leads to a fatherly view to the consumption economy, and modernism in this thought is the least.

Today most of Marxist socialists believe socialism has failed and believe Marxism is a social doctrine, a worldview, an ideology, a philosophical school which was found in the late 19th Century by Carl Marx, the German philosopher, economist, historian, sociologist and political theorist.

Base of Marxism as it has been mentioned in the Communism manifest has been laid on history of societies and history of class struggle and in today’s world there exists two classes of Proletariat and Bourgeoisie which are in clash to overcome each other and make these two histories and as I said, for years it induces replacement behavior

The right view and approach to a school-based economy even in the framework of ethical school of Islam is a view to free market and to some extent towards reasonable distribution of wealth. People should enjoy having the talent, understanding and environmental preparation and they themselves provoke production based on the demand and supply and to push the government out of the economy.

John Maynard Keynes, the English economist and philosopher, describes the view on the market as distribution of wealth from up to down and believes growth in any geography looks at big enterprises and encourages the governments to support industry and agriculture, services and leaders of economy and unlike him, Friedrich August von Hayek, who is considered as the founder of Austrian economy does not believe in distribution of wealth from up to down. Hayek believes distribution of wealth from up to down increases the Gini coefficient and decreases the volume of capability in producing jobs and both are liberal with two different views and these two views have set the base of the economies of West and East for their one-hundred year challenges.

We have to support the big enterprises for creating fast growth but in a ten-year plan range, the path for supporting should be directed by at least 10% per year towards supporting the small enterprises and lower classes of the society. We should stop banking chaos and distribution of money and instead of increasing salaries, goods are distributed and distribution of goods via the government should be stopped and it should be handed over to the enterprises which will be a pretext for encouraging them to production, and let the entrepreneurship and employership is formed and organized in order to increase the output and productivity.

If the production is the yardstick for growth, we should save work from the damages of rebellions.  The employer should have this power to go through good and bad of his work. I think it went too much. I apologize for prolonging it and of course I will continue this topic later.

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Based on the IMF data, Iran’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) based on the purchasing power index will grow by $91 billion or two percent in 2023 to reach $1.7 trillion.

Meanwhile, Iran’s GDP per capita is also expected to increase by $865 based on the purchasing power index to reach $19,528 in 2023 from $18,663 in 2022.

IMF sees Iran’s GDP excluding oil grow by two percent in 2023, and the growth of the country’s economy including oil will be 2.1 percent this year.

The inflation rate in Iran is predicted to be 40 percent in 2023, registering no change compared to 2022.

The International Monetary Fund expects the rate of the country’s liquidity growth to slow down in 2023. The liquidity growth that reached 47.5 percent of GDP in 2022 will decrease to 45.6 percent in 2023.

The budget deficit of the Iranian government in 2023 will reach six percent of GDP, which is 1.8 percent higher than the figure in 2022.

The Iranian government’s total revenues will not change in 2023 compared to the previous year. The Iranian government’s income in 2023 is estimated to be 8.3 percent of the GDP, registering no change compared to the previous year. However, the government’s non-oil incomes will increase from 7.4 percent of GDP in 2022 to 7.5 percent of GDP in 2023.

Based on the IMF data, the downward trend of the Iranian government’s gross debt will continue in 2023 to settle at 31.9 percent of the GDP this year.

The fund also predicts Iran’s current account balance to be $30.2 billion in 2023. Iran’s current account balance in 2022 is estimated at more than $32 billion.

Based on the mentioned data, Iran’s foreign currency reserves increase by more than $11.4 billion in 2023 and reach $42.2 billion. Iran’s available foreign currency reserves in 2022 are estimated at $30.8 billion. This international organization has announced that Iran’s foreign currency reserves are more than $120 billion, but it claims that Iran has access to only a small part of these reserves due to the U.S. sanctions.

According to the estimate of the International Monetary Fund, Iran’s foreign debt in 2022 will be equal to 0.5 percent of the GDP and it is expected that this figure will remain the same in 2023.

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IMF, in its latest World Economic Outlook report titled “Countering the Cost-of-Living Crisis” published on Tuesday, anticipated that Iran’s inflation rate and accounts balance will also improve in the current year.

The international body had put Iran’s inflation rate in 2021 at 40.1 percent, adding that not only Iran’s inflation rate will not increase in the current year as compared to a year earlier, but it will hit 40 percent at large, showing a bit decline.

The IMF also predicted that Iran’s balance of its current accounts in 2022 will double as compared to the same period of last year.

Accordingly, the balance of Iran’s current accounts in 2021 had been put at 0.6 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP), the rate of which will hit 1.6 percent in the current year.

Therefore, the IMF expects Iran’s economy to experience positive growth for the third year in a row in 2022 in spite of tough sanctions imposed by the United States against Iran.

Iranian economy experienced a 3.1 percent negative growth in 2019 following the U.S. maximum pressure policy imposed against Iran, IMF said, adding that Iran’s economy moved out of recession in 2020 despite the global coronavirus pandemic.

Earlier this week, World Bank also predicted the Iranian economy to grow by 2.9 percent in 2022.

In its latest economic report on the MENA region, dubbed “A New State of Mind: Greater Transparency and Accountability in the Middle East and North Africa”, the bank said that the Islamic Republic’s Account Balance is also going to improve in 2022 reaching 3.8 percent of the GDP. The figure stood at 3.5 percent last year.

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