It shows a decrease of 27.6 percent, 6.1 percent, and 45.5 percent compared to last month, the same month last year, and the monthly average of the last ten years, respectively.

Of the total quakes, 8 had a magnitude of more than 4 on the Richter scale, the largest of which occurred on December 14 with a magnitude of 4.5 near Lavandevil in northern Gilan province, ISNA reported.

Statistically, 485 earthquakes with magnitudes smaller than 3; 43 earthquakes with magnitudes between 3 and 4 have occurred in the country.

Among the provinces of the country, Khorasan Razavi with 55 earthquakes, South Khorasan with 48 earthquakes, and Chaharmahal–Bakhtiari with 43 earthquakes respectively, recorded the highest number of earthquakes in the country.

Meanwhile, 7 earthquakes were also recorded in Tehran province, the largest of which occurred in the city of Javad Abad with a magnitude of 2.4 on the Richter scale.

A total of 7,000 earthquakes have been recorded across the country over the past calendar year, which ended on March 20.

Of the total quakes, 185 were more than 4 on the Richter scale, the largest of which occurred on June 1, 2022, with a magnitude of 6.1 in the southern province of Hormozgan.

Statistically, at least two earthquakes with a magnitude of more than 5 have occurred monthly in the country.

The northwestern province of West Azarbaijan, the northeastern province of Khorasan Razavi, and the southeastern province of Kerman, registered the most earthquakes with 838, 813, and 740 earthquakes respectively.

The northcentral provinces of Qazvin, Zanjan, and Alborz recorded the least earthquakes with 21, 9, and 2 earthquakes respectively.

The southern province of Hormozgan, the southeastern province of Kerman, and the northwestern province of West Azarbaijan registered respectively the highest number of earthquakes with a magnitude of more than 4 on the Richter scale.

The Iranian plateau is located in a very seismically active region of the world and is known not only for its major catastrophic earthquakes but also for the disasters relating to natural hazards, especially earthquakes.

About 2 percent of the earthquakes in the world occur in Iran but more than 6% of the victims of the world earthquakes during the 20th century are reported from Iranian earthquakes. This shows the high level of vulnerability in Iran, according to Mehdi Zare, a professor of engineering seismology.

Iran has entered a decade of earthquakes since the [Iranian calendar] year 1396 (March 2017- March 2018), as the Iranian plateau is shrinking by 30 millimeters per year, Mehdi Zare, professor of engineering seismology at the International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), has said.

The Strait of Hormuz region in the south of Iran has the highest seismic activity in the region and its formation is related to the continuation of the convergent movement between the Arabian plate and the central continental plate of Iran.

Tehran is also one of the most hazardous metropolises in the world in terms of the risk of different natural disasters, such as earthquakes, floods, subsidence, drought, landslides, fire following an earthquake, etc.

On the other hand, Tehran has a nighttime population of over 8,300,000 with a mixture of old non-resistant structures as well as modern high-rise buildings that affect the vulnerability of this city.

The post Over 530 earthquakes occur in a month appeared first on Iran News Daily.

“Climate change is a regional issue that could lead to large migrations,” IRNA quoted Zare as saying on Tuesday in a meeting held on the occasion of science promotion week.

Land subsidence has already occurred in 400 out of 609 plains of the country, IRNA reported.

Land subsidence, a gradual settling or sudden sinking of the Earth’s surface due to subsurface movement of earth materials is mainly caused by aquifer-system compaction, drainage, and decomposition of organic soils, underground mining, oil and gas extraction, hydro compaction, natural compaction, sinkholes, and thawing permafrost.

Subsidence results in significant economic losses in the form of structural damage and high maintenance costs. This affects roads and transportation networks, hydraulic infrastructure, sewage systems, buildings, and foundations. The total damage worldwide is estimated at billions of dollars annually.

He stated, “In Iran, 400 plains, especially in Tehran, Alborz, and Isfahan provinces are grappling with subsidence.”

Some 96 billion cubic meters of water is consumed in Iran annually, while the country’s total renewable water resources are only 90 billion cubic meters, he added.

Effective factors in land subsidence

Reports show that 98 percent of the subsidence is caused by excessive extraction of underground water and mismanagement of water resources.

Geologists call subsidence a “silent earthquake” because an earthquake is instantaneous and its effects are visible at the same time, but subsidence is the cause of environmental depletion and its impact appears gradually; which is becoming a big threat in the country.

With the spread of droughts and lack of proper water management, the gradual land subsidence has become a routine threat to the country.

When the amount of harvest is greater than the amount of nourishment of the underground aquifers, the earth moves downward and finally, the soil particles are compressed together, in such a situation, the phenomenon of subsidence takes on another meaning; It means “death of aquifers”.

The scope of this man-made phenomenon has advanced to such an extent that researchers in this field describe it with words such as “cancer”, “irreversible risk” and “death of the earth”.

In order to give a perspective of the country’s subsidence rate, the National Cartographic Center started a project in this field in 2016.

Morteza Seddiqi, an official with the Organization, told ISNA that using satellite data and images is one of the methods that have been implemented to check the rate of subsidence of the whole country.

“Based on the surveys carried out on these images, we have identified as many as 252 subsidence areas in the country.”

In 2021, Gholam-Ali Jafarzadeh, the former head of the National Cartography Center, lamented that some 29 provinces are currently at risk of subsidence.

He named two factors of climate change and human intervention as the most important factors of land subsidence in the country and noted that it is expected that we take measures to reduce the pressure on the environment.

He added that 80 percent of the groundwater is withdrawn annually in Iran, which outpaces the global rate.

In the whole world, water resources withdrawal is between 3 to 20 percent, and when it reaches 40 to 60 percent it is considered problematic, and it will be a crisis when exceeding 60-80 percent, he noted.

Over the past decades, some of the aquifer levels dropped by 100 centimeters.

Inefficient irrigation methods in addition to digging illegal wells are the other main causes of groundwater extraction-induced subsidence, as out of 50,000 wells pumping underground water resources in the capital, 30,000 are illegal.

It should be noted that over the next 40 years, the country’s temperature will rise by 2.6 degrees on the Celsius Scale, which will increase the country’s need for more water resources.

The post Evidence suggests climate change may trigger earthquakes: expert appeared first on Iran News Daily.

Of the total quakes, 17 were more than 4 on the Richter scale, the largest of which occurred on March 24, with a magnitude of 5.6 in the northwestern province of West Azarbaijan.

Statistically, 358 earthquakes with a magnitude of less than 3, 68 earthquakes with a magnitude of 3 to 4, 14 earthquakes with a magnitude of 4 to 5, and 3 8 earthquakes with a magnitude of 5 to 6 were recorded.

The northwestern province of West Azarbaijan, the northeastern province of Khorasan Razavi, and the southern province of Fars registered the most earthquakes with 104, 46, and 44 earthquakes respectively.

A total of 7,000 earthquakes have been recorded across the country over the past calendar year, which ended on March 20.

Of the total quakes, 185 were more than 4 on the Richter scale, the largest of which occurred on June 1, 2022, with a magnitude of 6.1 in the southern province of Hormozgan.

Statistically, at least two earthquakes with a magnitude of more than 5 have occurred monthly in the country.

The northwestern province of West Azarbaijan, the northeastern province of Khorasan Razavi, and the southeastern province of Kerman, registered the most earthquakes with 838, 813, and 740 earthquakes respectively.

The northcentral provinces of Qazvin, Zanjan, and Alborz recorded the least earthquakes with 21, 9, and 2 earthquakes respectively.

The southern province of Hormozgan, the southeastern province of Kerman, and the northwestern province of West Azarbaijan registered respectively the highest number of earthquakes with a magnitude of more than 4 on the Richter scale.

The Iranian plateau is located in a very seismically active region of the world and is known not only for its major catastrophic earthquakes but also for the disasters relating to natural hazards, especially earthquakes.

About 2 percent of the earthquakes in the world occur in Iran but more than 6% of the victims of the world earthquakes during the 20th century are reported from Iranian earthquakes. This shows the high level of vulnerability in Iran, according to Mehdi Zare, a professor of engineering seismology.

Iran has entered a decade of earthquakes since the [Iranian calendar] year 1396 (March 2017-March 2018), as the Iranian plateau is shrinking by 30 millimeters per year, Mehdi Zare, professor of engineering seismology at the International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), has said.

The Strait of Hormuz region in the south of Iran has the highest seismic activity in the region and its formation is related to the continuation of the convergent movement between the Arabian plate and the central continental plate of Iran.

Tehran is also one of the most hazardous metropolises in the world in terms of the risk of different natural disasters, such as earthquakes, floods, subsidence, drought, landslide, fire following an earthquake, etc.

On the other hand, Tehran has an over 8,300,000 nighttime population with a mixture of old non-resistant structures as well as modern high-rise buildings that affect the vulnerability of this city.

The post Over 440 earthquakes occur in a month appeared first on Iran News Daily.

TEHRAN (Iran News) –Almost every time, after a large earthquake occurs near a residential area, questions are raised in the media as to “why the event was not anticipated?”.

The argument is that a successful forecast would reduce loss of life, if not necessarily economic damage, by allowing the evacuation of dangerous buildings, the clearing of tsunami-prone coastal areas, and the readiness of hospitals and rescue teams.

However, most natural hazard experts argue that forecasting is at best the pinnacle of seismology and at worst has adverse effects on our ability to manage disasters.

First, we need to clarify what is meant by “Earthquake prediction”. What we mean is that before an earthquake occurs, a correct and relatively accurate estimate of magnitude, location, and time of its occurrence is made.

For a forecast to be useful, the earthquake in question should preferably be strong (magnitude 6 or higher) and should include all three.

Of course, we must provide a prediction that is logical and within the framework of rational reasoning, and in accordance with known scientific methods.

So, predicting that an earthquake with a magnitude between 7.4 and 7.6 may occur in a specific location between 4:00 PM and 8:00 PM on a specific day is very good! And of course, predicting that an event with a magnitude of 2.0 to 7.6 will occur in the entire country of Iran or a region of it or a large area inside and outside the country, for example, in the entire month of August, is definitely not useful (and of course, it will certainly turn out to be wrong.)

Pay attention to this Prediction clamming (recently performed and published in Iran): “Given that there was a strong earthquake with a magnitude of 4.2 on 24 July 2022 in Bandar Khamir (South Zagros, Hormozgan) area, based on the proposed model, the probability of the next earthquake occurring in the period of 25 July to 25 August has been identified and by examining the seismographic data from 26 June 2018 to till 24 July 2022, 755 severe earthquakes have been reported in Iran.

By putting together the time of occurrence of earthquakes, it is observed that the time interval between the occurrence of a strong earthquake and the next strong earthquake is a maximum of 29 days, which means that whenever we have witnessed a strong earthquake, the next earthquake occurs at most 29 days or less have given.”

Ready such a prediction report, we may conclude that this type of forecast contains several fundamental errors, and shows that the forecaster is not even familiar with the basics of the Science of Seismology: first, he calls an earthquake with a magnitude of 4.2 to be “strong” (a strong earthquake has a magnitude equal to or greater than 6), and then clearly there is no reason why the desired time window was 4 years? And the basis of the “suggested model” is not clear and…

So, what are the drawbacks of announcing the results of prediction and relying on it? Let’s leave aside the basic scientific and technical problems for now. The first problem of the work itself is “announcing” predictions, especially long-term and large-scale predictions.

For example, the Loma Prieta earthquake in 1989 (Northern California) caused significant damage in the San Francisco Bay area of California. Twelve hours after the event, the US Geological Survey (USGS) reportedly claimed to have “predicted” the earthquake in a report the previous year. Various other claims have been made about the prediction.

18 reports in 1990 claimed, “scientific predictions of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake were presented ‘in retrospect'” (in this case the correct time and location predictions were made with such a wide window (e.g. covering a large part of California for five years) which had lost its predictive value. Predictions were also presented with a probability of only 30% in ten or twenty-year windows.

One of the discussed predictions used the M8 algorithm, which was originally proposed by the great scientist in this field, Vladimir Keilis-Borok, and his colleagues. Prominent Soviet scientist Kilis Borok – who immigrated to the USA after the collapse of the Soviet Union – received his doctorate in mathematical geophysics from the Academy of Sciences in Moscow in 1948.

He was the founder and director emeritus of the International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics in Moscow. The forecast misrepresented both the magnitude (M 7.5) and the time (a five-year window from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 1988).

It then extended the time window to July 1, 1992, by including more of California and half of Nevada, and reduced the location (forecast target) to Central California. The range of magnitudes remained the same, but the magnitudes they presented were M7.0 earthquakes in central California.

In two revisions to the same model, the five-year time window for one expired in July 1989, and thus missed the Loma Prieta event (could not predict). The second revision extended to 1990 and included Loma Prieta Earthquake.

When discussing the success or failure of the Loma Prieta 1989 earthquake prediction, some scientists argue that the earthquake did not occur on the San Andreas fault (the target of most predictions) and instead involved strike-slip motion (vertical) and of course the horizontal slip component, and therefore not predicted.

Other scientists argued that the Loma Prieta earthquake occurred in the San Andreas fault “zone” and released much of the accumulated strain from the 1906 San Francisco earthquake.

Dr. Susan Hough, a well-known seismologist of the United States Geological Survey, believes that in this way the Loma Prieta earthquake was not actually predicted, but some predictions were made that were only partially successful.

Let’s imagine a scenario where a long-term prediction is possible, and a situation where an accurate prediction is made today that a magnitude 7.4 earthquake will strike a hypothetical city. If we were 100% confident in our prediction, the city could be evacuated in advance, dangerous buildings demolished and emergency services ready.

But what will be the economic and social effect of this prediction in the next year? It is likely that many people will be evacuated, businesses will be closed, and the economy will suffer, so with such a forecast, the economic and social cost to the assumed city will be very high, and may actually be more than the cost of the earthquake itself. This is made worse when we consider that the forecast cannot be 100% reliable – in fact, it is far from that – meaning that it could be a false warning, or it could very well be an overestimate.

And by the way, it is the place where the mistake was predicted. So if the economic and social effects of a very long-term forecast are problematic, what about short-term forecasts? It can be predicted that the same earthquake will occur in the given city in 24 hours. This avoids long-term economic and social effects but allows for a high level of preparedness. Again, buildings can be evacuated, hospitals prepared, schools closed, etc.

This is attractive, but the practical problem again lies in the uncertainty in the prediction. Suppose this prediction is completely correct in time and magnitude but mispredicts the location by 200 km. If the population is moved from the forecast area to the actual epicenter, this can have catastrophic consequences. This work can make the destruction of the earthquake much more serious than when no prediction was made!

Meanwhile, suppose that the location and magnitude of the earthquake are exactly right, but three days later than predicted! There is a high probability that the population will begin to return to the affected area and become more vulnerable than previously anticipated.

In fact, the mechanism of earthquakes makes them more difficult to predict. Some people think that a tectonic earthquake is like a bomb that explodes at a point underground, and energy waves travel away from that point. But the mechanism of real earthquakes is different.

In fact, an earthquake occurs as a result of the movement of two blocks on the surface of a fault, an underground surface that is usually so deep that it is not accessible – except by seismology – and waves of energy are emitted from every point of that rupture surface.

In fact, an earthquake begins with a rupture event that causes slip and then propagates along the fault plane over a period of time, usually seconds to minutes. In this sense, it has nothing in common with the model understood by non-experts (in the form of an underground bomb).

Note that non-specialists include educated people who have attained high scientific degrees in different specialized fields and have general scientific knowledge, but they do not understand the phenomenon of earthquakes and geological processes of stress concentration in the crust and deformation.

Many of the efforts of this group of researchers also lead to the production of pseudo-scientific content and results, which of course create bigger problems! Many people do not have the possibility to distinguish and separate the specialized areas, and judging this type of activity leads to a dignified confrontation with the provider of this type of prediction and faces a challenge.

In the scientific studies of earthquake prediction, in addition to the studies of seismic waves, other fields also play a role in the prediction of earthquakes through the science of seismology.

For example, geological studies provide information on the slip rates of active faults and the occurrence of historical earthquakes. These findings can be used to infer the future behavior of faults and earthquake potentials. By studying the landforms and geological units with known age that the faults have changed, it is possible to determine the displacement of the two sides of a fault relative to each other.

Under favorable conditions, even fault displacements during historical earthquakes can be detected and their size and approximate age can be determined. Significant fault displacement is generally accepted as evidence for large earthquakes, and thus the seismogenic history of a fault can be traced back thousands of years by geological studies.

Exploratory trenches across active fault zones are valuable for such studies and their use became common in the 1970s. For example, in 1984, American scientist Kerry Sieh published pieces of evidence of 12 earthquakes that occurred between 260 and 1857 AD along a section of the San Andreas fault, from trenching in Southern California.

His study provides the best evidence for a return period of about 145 years for major earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault in southern California. Other studies, such as geological measurements, magnetic and electrical measurements, and hydrological and chemical analyses, also greatly contribute to our knowledge of the physical and chemical states of rocks and provide clues as to whether rocks are on the verge of failure.

In addition, rock deformation experiments and measurements of the physical properties of rocks provide data essential to our understanding of the earthquake process. The history of seismological studies, especially after 1960, shows that major advances occurred shortly after the accumulation of quality seismic data beyond that previously observed.

For example, shortly after the development of several hundred seismographs in the global digital seismographic network in the early 1990s, the model of the Earth’s internal structure was rapidly refined. In the 1930s, the determination of seismic velocity, density, and other physical parameters for a spherical Earth model was completed by Bullen, Gutenberg, Jefferies, and other pioneers of 20th-century seismology.

The establishment of a standardized global seismograph network in the early 1960s (with seismographs) enabled the study of global seismicity and focal mechanisms on a scale not previously possible. As a result, seismology made a significant contribution to the development of the theory of “plate tectonics” in the late 1960s.

Currently, with the availability of digital seismic data at the local and global scale, major advances in earthquake seismology are expected. In addition, advances in computers with increasing computing power but the decreasing cost are important for seismologists to process and analyze data in order to gain insight from the ever-increasing volume of collected seismic data. In the 1990s, the importance of monitoring strong ground motion, especially in urban areas, was recognized.

The accelerometric networks were developed with more than 1000 digital accelerometers in Taiwan, Japan, and Iran. An extensive dataset of severe ground motion in the Chi-Chi (Taiwan) earthquakes of September 20, 1999, and December 26, 2003, Bam (Iran) clearly showed that these near field data not only provide the information needed for earthquake engineering but also help to better understand earthquakes.

These strong ground motion data—especially those recorded in the vicinity of the fault—showed why previous attempts to predict earthquakes had been unsuccessful. The science of earthquake prediction is still in development and our current ability to predict earthquakes is limited.

From various pieces of evidence, it is possible to identify the areas where destructive earthquakes occur. We may even have an approximate estimate of their magnitude and the number of times they occur, but we do not have the ability to accurately predict when they will occur.

Extensive earthquake prediction research programs have been implemented in China, Japan, the United States, and the Soviet Union, and progress has so far been slow. The fact is that any kind of “announcement and notification” of the results before the earthquake, caused by pseudo-scientific or even scientific works, for any purpose or motive, can be predicted to lead to anxiety and pressure on the audience and both forecasting teams and in practice it leads to the limitation of earthquake forecasting activities.

The post Scientific challenge: predicting earthquakes or avoiding them? appeared first on Iran News Daily.

On the occasion of the National Day of Safety Against Earthquake and also devastating 2003 Bam Earthquake anniversary, Middle East Knowledge Management Institute held a press conference under the banner of “Futures Studies of Earthquake Crisis Management” where the Iranian engineer unveiled its invention of a device for detection and warning of the approximate time and place of the possible earthquake.

Farhad Samandari, the Iranian talent and engineer, addressing the participants in the presser delved into details of his invention and said he has patented his invention but he needs the government support for its launch. He said that this system of warning will be based on the animal senses, adding that snake and fish have strong senses of feeling the danger and any developments in the earth, and his system will function based on this sense and by implanting special sensors in snake and fish or any other animal which has strong sense of feeling the threats.

He went on to say that by the launch of a data center, it will get the signals from the certain animals with implanted sensors and then will transfer it to the crisis management headquarters for further actions.

He admitted that his invention and idea is waiting for financial support to be launched because such devices are necessary for the country which is located on the earthquake belt.

Meanwhile, addressing the presser, official in the public participation of Tehran City Council Mr. Talebinejad called for organizing participation of the people during the crisis like earthquake. He added that even the National Crisis Management Headquarters is shocked and loses its control during the earthquake. He said we are in the 21th Century and we cannot stick to the old traditional public participation and the country needs a modern and organized way of public participation during the crisis. He reiterated that five factors of culture, body, logistic, norms and determination of the executor of the program are important in the public participation and as long as this participation is not organized, all efforts will be in vain.

Then Mr. Maziar Mir, for his part, talked about the principles of the crisis management and said since the country is located on the earthquake belt, the education is very important for such critical time. He admitted that education in this regard is very weak in the country and hailed Iranian scientists like Mr. Samandari who sacrifice themselves for the success of the country. He then called for education and deployment of crisis management offices in any part of the country.

Dr. Zolfaghari was the other speaker in this presser who called for supporting the knowledge-based and start-ups companies for tackling this issue and preparing the country for any disaster.

Majlis lawmaker Mr. Nikzad also criticized the bodies which are in charge of managing crisis and called for improvement of their performance. He went on to say that since 2003 that Bam earthquake happened and killed thousands of people, one can still see rubbles and wreckage of that disaster in the city. By the way he said people of Bam despite all problems are ready to host tourists from any part of the country.

The post Iranian Engineer Invents Device for Alarming Earthquake appeared first on Iran News Daily.

The earthquake occurred at 3:34 a.m. local time at a depth of 16 kilometers in Sankhast, 70 km southwest of the capital city of Bojnourd, according to the Seismological Center of the Geophysics Institute of Tehran University.

No fatalities have so far been reported in the aftermath of the quake, IRNA reported.

Twelve other quakes measuring 2.6-5.4 on the Richter scale shook the area within 6 hours.

Some 11 rescue and relief teams and a helicopter have been dispatched to the quake-hit areas for assessment, and in addition, relief items have been sent to the scene.

North Khorasan province is located on active and important faults, which sometimes cause destructive earthquakes with their movements.

The most important fault of North Khorasan is Esfarayen fault, which is about 170 km long, Baghan-Garmab fault is also a fault with a length of 55 to 50 km.

According to the statistics, 13 earthquakes with a magnitude of more than 5.5 occurred in North Khorasan over the current century.

Seismically active

The Iranian plateau is located in a very seismically active region of the world and is known not only for its major catastrophic earthquakes but also for the disasters relating to natural hazards, especially earthquakes.

About 2 percent of the earthquakes of the world occur in Iran but more than 6 percent of the victims of the world earthquakes during the 20th century are reported from Iranian earthquakes. This shows the high level of vulnerability in Iran, according to Mehdi Zare, a professor of engineering seismology.

Most recently, a magnitude 5.9 earthquake jolted southwestern Bushehr province on April 18, leaving 5 injured.

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