TEHRAN (Iran News) –2023 was the hottest year on the record on the earth, a major source of concern that drought will pose serious threats in water stressed countries like Iran.

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Every year on June 17 the United Nations marks the World Day to Combat Desertification and Drought, working toward raising public awareness and assisting international efforts to this end.

The theme of 2023 to commemorate this day focused on women’s role and right in sustainable land management. This theme strongly calls for safeguarding women’s land rights to ensure a sustainable future for all.

“Desertification and drought pose immense challenges that extend across every corner of our planet, endangering the livelihoods of millions, particularly those residing in dry and semi-dry regions such as Iran,” said the FAO representative in a message on this occasion.

Hereunder is the message that was read at the place of Forests, Range, and Watershed Management Organization by Ms. Nazi Tavakoli, the officer in charge, on behalf of the FAO representative ad interim to Iran.

The Islamic Republic of Iran, with vast arid and semi-arid areas, confronts and controls significant challenges of water scarcity, land degradation, desertification, drought, and dust storms. These environmental perils have a considerable impact on the agricultural sector.

On the other hand, land degradation and dust storms not only threaten human health but also damage agricultural productivity. It is obvious that the phenomenon of dust has severe economic effects and affects various sectors including agriculture, transportation, and energy.

As a top priority for FAO, our interregional technical cooperation project, “Catalyzing Investments and Actions to Enhance Resilience Against Sand and Dust Storms in Agriculture,” has conducted a thorough Sand and Dust Storms disaster risk assessment in Ahvaz.

This project has laid the foundation for the development of timely, effective, and appropriate preparedness and response measures within a comprehensive contingency plan.

It encompasses all aspects of SDS disaster risk management in agriculture, encompassing both cropland and rangeland.

The Global Environment Fund (GEF) has made significant contributions to the global endeavor to combat desertification and drought.

Their funding has supported numerous projects in Iran, yielding positive impacts on local communities.

For instance, the GEF has backed initiatives promoting sustainable land management practices, reducing water wastage, and enhancing carbon sequestration.

These endeavors have not only mitigated the impacts of droughts but have also strengthened ecosystem resilience and bolstered local economies.

One FAO exemplary project, co-financed by the Global Environment Fund (GEF), is the “Rehabilitation of Forest Landscapes and Degraded Land with Particular Attention to Saline Soils and Areas Prone to Wind Erosion Project (RFLDL).”

Its objective is to restore degraded ecosystems, mitigate land degradation, and improve local livelihoods.

This project has been implemented in the provinces of Kerman (Rigan) and South Khorasan (Sarayan), yielding valuable experiences and lessons that we hope can be applied in other regions in the future.

In conclusion, as we stride towards a more sustainable future, it is imperative that all stakeholders collaborate to address the challenges posed by desertification and drought.

A multidisciplinary approach is indispensable, one that encompasses ecological, social, and economic considerations. International organizations such as FAO, GEF, and UNCCD are committed to supporting countries like Iran in their efforts to combat desertification and drought and achieve sustainable land use.

By working together, we can safeguard our natural resources, protect our livelihoods, and secure a better future for generations to come.

FB/MG

Photo: Nazi Tavakoli, the officer in charge, reads the message of the FAO representative ad interim to Iran.

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In proportion to the country’s land area, the area of forests and green spaces are very small, and many of them have been already destroyed.

Considering that Iran is one of the countries with low vegetation and only seven percent of its total area is covered with forests, the need to increase the country’s green space is very important.

There are two types of forests in the country’s deserts, which include desert forests and man-planted forests, and the Natural Resources Organization plans to plant up to 40 million saplings in these areas.

Man-planted forests of desert areas are a part of the forests of this climate that does not have a natural origin and were created with the aim of stabilizing sinking sands and developing vegetation in desert lands through planting, cuttings, sowing, and seeding.

The main purpose of desertification activities such as planting trees, building windbreaks, seeding, etc., is primarily to strengthen the vegetation of the area as the main factor in preventing wind erosion, protecting the soil, and preventing damage caused by the movement of quicksand.

Creating an ecological balance in transforming desert lands into an area capable of sustainable economic and social development of the region is considered one of the secondary goals.

One of the very important reasons for increasing the country’s vegetation is that Iran is the seventh carbon-producing country in the world and in terms of carbon absorption, Iran has a very low rank.

Due to the importance of the per capita increase in Iran’s green spaces, a campaign titled “Green Iran, Strong Iran” and a national program for planting one billion saplings over the course of four years were launched.

Experts say tree planting is a climate change solution that doesn’t require scientists to come up with technological solutions to draw carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. It is available now. It is the cheapest one possible and every one of us can get involved.

The national budget bill for the current Iranian calendar year (March 2023-March 2024) has allocated a special line of credit for planting trees.

These credits are used for tree planting and annual maintenance, ILNA quoted Abbas-Ali Nobakht, head of the Forests, Rangelands, and Watershed Management Organization, as saying.

Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said: “If each Iranian plants three saplings, the government’s goal to plant one billion saplings over the next four years will be realized.”

Over the past years, the environment has been damaged by various natural and human factors, and the main priority in planting one billion trees is to restore nature, Nobakht said.

On March 6 which marked National Tree Planting Day, Ayatollah Khamenei pointed to the importance of planting saplings in preserving the environment, emphasizing that with the help of the people, it is possible to plant one billion saplings.

The destruction of forests and the environment and vegetation is equivalent to the degradation of national interests, and the depletion of part of the forests for construction, except in emergencies, is definitely to the detriment of the nation, he explained.

The Leader further called on people to plant and protect trees, saying that doing such important work requires national support. Tree planting is among the activities that can prevent the disappearance of forests around and inside cities through expanding vegetation cover.

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The ENSO cycle has three phases called the neutral phase, El Niño and La Niña. It is a scientific term that describes the fluctuations in temperature between the ocean and atmosphere in the east-central Equatorial Pacific (approximately between the International Date Line and 120 degrees West).

In the neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña) trade winds blow east to west across the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean, bringing warm moist air and warmer surface waters towards the western Pacific and keeping the central Pacific Ocean relatively cool. The thermocline is deeper in the west than the east.

According to the forecasts, El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can lead to more rain in Iran in the second half of winter and early spring.The term El Niño refers to the large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to periodic warming in sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central Equatorial Pacific.

La Niña is mainly referred to as the cold phase of ENSO and El Niño as the warm phase of ENSO. These deviations from normal surface temperatures can have large-scale impacts not only on ocean processes but also on global weather and climate.

Sadeq Ziaeian, head of the national center for forecasting and crisis management of weather hazards told ISNA that this year is the third year that the country is in the La Nina phase and we have not had adequate rains yet, but according to the forecasts, ENSO will enter the neutral phase and we expect that the rainfall situation will be in a better condition.

Ahad Vazifeh, head of the national center for drought and crisis management also said that during La Nina, Iran’s rainfall is lower than the average. It cannot be said that drought conditions always existed during La Nina, but in many years, the country’s average rainfall was lower compared to the long term.

The La Nina phase will gradually turn into neutral conditions from the middle of winter and then into El Nino, which is expected to increase precipitation in the country compared to the past two years, he stated.

Changes in airflow and temperature on the surface of the Pacific Ocean cause a change in the transfer of moisture from southern latitudes or tropical regions to subtropical regions – which Iran is also one of them – so it changes the amount of rainfall, he explained.

These predictions are somewhat optimistic. Perhaps, due to the lack of rainfall in the current autumn season, it is expected that the country’s average rainfall will be lower than normal by the end of the current water year (September 22, 2023), he also noted.

Low rainfall conditions continue in provinces such as Alborz, Tehran, and neighboring provinces, and we cannot be optimistic that water scarcity will be completely resolved with winter rains, he added.

We should still consider the pessimistic scenario for keeping water in dams unless the change process significantly changes the amount of rainfall and partially compensates for the existing low precipitation, Vazifeh suggested.

El Nino and La Nina episodes typically last nine to 12 months, but some prolonged events may last for years. While their frequency can be quite irregular, El Nino and La Nina events occur on average every two to seven years. Typically, El Nino occurs more frequently than La Nina.

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Drought, low rainfall, and then water shortage is the problem of many countries, especially Iran, which is also located in an arid region.

Since ancient times, Iran has been constantly struggling with water shortage, which caused the creation of qanats, so that people actually accepted that water is scarce in the country.

But for several years, along with the industrial and agricultural development, it seems that the available water resources have been used unbridled, and the result is being on the verge of a water crisis.

In fact, entering a water crisis is an index that is measured based on the amount of water available per cubic meter per person per year, according to this index, if a country has more than 1,700 cubic meters of water per person per year, there is no problem with water resources.

However, if this amount goes below 1,000 cubic meters per person per year, we will enter a water crisis from water stress.

Of course, parts of the country are struggling with a water crisis, but we have not yet reached that stage in the country as a whole.

Now the country is in a position where, due to extreme and climatic conditions, the average rainfall is lower than the similar long-term average, Director of Water and Wastewater Research Center Abbas Akbarzadeh said.

“In the best case, it should be expected that the country will return to the long-term average rainfall, in fact, for hundreds and thousands of years, the average rainfall in the country was 250 mm per year, which has now decreased to about 200 mm per year and is still decreasing.

Forecasts show that rainfall will continue to decrease until 2050. Therefore, if the country receives a short period of rain, people should not think that the situation has returned to normal,” he explained.

In 1920, Iran had about 17,000 cubic meters of water per person, which listed the country among those with rich water resources. Of course, we should note that the population in the country was smaller than now. After that, we experienced the trend of population increase and decrease in rainfall, so that after a few decades, the country experienced water stress.

The predictions of some international forums show that Iran will reach 500 cubic meters of water per capita in 2050, which will be disastrous. But with new technologies, the above problem can be managed and solved, if the necessary plans are implemented and new and technological ideas are used, he said.

One of the solutions is optimizing water consumption in agriculture. The rate that the World Bank has estimated for this sector in order to deal with the water shortage crisis in the MENA region, i.e. North Africa and the Middle East region, is about 40 percent, in other words, if modern irrigation systems are used in agriculture, we can save up to 40 percent of the water consumed in the agricultural sector.

Iran experiences frequent droughts and faces the prospect of more extreme conditions brought about by climate change.

Of course, reaching this number is quite practical, with the development of modern irrigation systems, the expansion of greenhouse farming, and the change of the cultivation pattern.

The next issue in the water management sector is the development and optimization of conventional methods such as water treatment plants, which can be used to reduce water loss or reduce evaporation in the process.

4.8m people at medium to high risk 

The amount of rainfall in Iran’s main river basins from September 2020 to July 2021 was, in most places, substantially lower compared with the year-earlier period. Iran experiences frequent droughts and faces the prospect of more extreme conditions brought about by climate change.

According to current assessments, parts of Iran are facing a rainfall anomaly which has had an observed impact on vegetation and agriculture. Of particular concern is that these drought impacts have been observed in northeastern Iran in areas bordering Afghanistan.

The Iranian Red Crescent Society estimates that 4.8 million people are at medium to high risk of drought-related impacts, mostly in remote and rural areas of the provinces.

It reports that 29 of 31 provinces, and especially seven – South Khorasan, Kerman, Sistan-Baluchestan, Hormozgan, Khuzestan, Isfahan, and Khorasan Razavi – have been severely affected by the drought. The lack of safe and sufficient water supply for drinking, hygiene, agriculture, animal husbandry, and electrical power is having a devastating and increasingly unsustainable strain on households’ health, and income in addition to encouraging negative social trends and coping mechanisms.

Drought has so far incurred a loss of 28 trillion rials (about $107 million) to the environment, Hassan Akbari, deputy head of natural environment and biodiversity of the Department of Environment, has said.

Unfortunately, over 70 percent of the country is suffering from severe drought. The severity of the drought is devastating in areas such as the Zagros, which is both a source of water and natural habitats, he lamented.

Droughts may affect three-quarters of the world by 2050

The United Nations has warned that droughts may affect over three-quarters of the world’s population by 2050.

Droughts are among the greatest threats to sustainable development, especially in developing countries, but increasingly so in developed nations too.

The number and duration of droughts have increased by 29 percent since 2000, as compared to the two previous decades (WMO 2021). When more than 2.3 billion people already face water stress, this is a huge problem. More and more of us will be living in areas with extreme water shortages, including an estimated one in four children by 2040 (UNICEF). No country is immune to drought (UN-Water 2021).

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Droughts are among the greatest threats to sustainable development, especially in developing countries, but increasingly so in developed nations too.

The number and duration of droughts have increased by 29 percent since 2000, as compared to the two previous decades (WMO 2021). When more than 2.3 billion people already face water stress, this is a huge problem. More and more of us will be living in areas with extreme water shortages, including an estimated one in four children by 2040 (UNICEF). No country is immune to drought (UN-Water 2021).

This year, the theme of the International Day Against Desertification, and Drought “Rising up from drought together”, emphasizes the need for an early action to avoid disastrous consequences for humanity and the planetary ecosystems.

70-year history of dealing with desertification 

Iran has a 70-year history of dealing with desertification and dust control, with about 5 million hectares of planted forests in sand and dust storm hotspots, especially in areas with less than 50 mm of rainfall, Ali Mohammad Tahmasebi, head of the national working group for mitigating SDSs, has said.

Iran has a 70-year history of dealing with desertification and dust control, with about 5 million hectares of planted forests in sand and dust storm hotspots. Studies by international organizations show that the Islamic Republic has recorded the highest number of reforested desert areas after China, he added.

Parviz Garshasbi, deputy head of the Forests, Rangelands, and Watershed Management Organization (FRWMO), has said that according to the Sixth National Development Plan, desert greening measures were to be carried out in 1,140,000 hectares of the country’s deserts, but so far, the operations have been conducted in only 350,000 hectares of deserts.

An estimated 2 billion tons of soil is lost due to erosion in Iran annually, it takes an average of 400 years to form a centimeter of soil on the planet, he said, adding, in Iran’s climate, this time is between 700 and 1000 years.

Wind erosion brings an annual economic and environmental damage of 30 trillion rials (nearly $714 million at the official rate of 42,000 rials) to the country, according to the latest studies in 2019.

“Over 88 percent of the country can be affected by desertification. According to the 2018 survey, 37 million hectares of the country are exposed to land degradation and 23 percent of the total area is subject to severe degradation in terms of reduction of vegetation and soil fertility.

Also, 22 provinces of the country with an area of 29.5 million hectares in 187 regions are affected by wind erosion and there are 237 crisis centers with an area of 13.9 million hectares due to the influx of annual quicksand to the railway infrastructure, roads, agriculture, and other parts are damaged,” he explained.

When the soil asks for help

Desertification is the degradation of land in arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid areas. It is caused primarily by human activities and climatic variations. Desertification does not refer to the expansion of existing deserts. It occurs because dryland ecosystems, which cover over one-third of the world’s land area, are extremely vulnerable to overexploitation and inappropriate land use. Poverty, political instability, deforestation, overgrazing, and bad irrigation practices can all undermine the productivity of the land.

The World Day to Combat Desertification and Drought is observed every year to promote public awareness of international efforts to combat desertification. The day is a unique moment to remind everyone that land degradation neutrality is achievable through problem-solving, strong community involvement, and cooperation at all levels.

The matter requires even more attention now. When the land degrades and stops being productive, natural spaces deteriorate and transform. Thus, greenhouse gas emissions increase and biodiversity decrease. It also means there are fewer wild spaces to buffer zoonosis, such as COVID-19, and protect us from extreme weather events, such as droughts, floods, and sand and dust storms.

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Unfortunately, over 70 percent of the country is suffering from severe drought. The severity of the drought is devastating in areas such as the Zagros, which is both a source of water and natural habitats, he lamented.

Perhaps the first and most important damage of drought is the weakening of vegetation, which seriously disrupts the wildlife food chain. This is while this year in parts of the central plateau of Iran, there were few seasonal vegetation growths in Alborz and Zagros regions, which makes wildlife breeding a serious problem.

Akbari pointed to the increase of pests in forest areas, intensification of wildfires, wildlife diseases, and increase of wildlife damage to farms and main livestock as other consequences of drought.

Iran faces a range of environmental challenges from high temperatures, pollution, flooding, and vanishing lakes. In April 2021, the Iranian Meteorological Organization warned of an “unprecedented drought” and rainfall levels that were substantially below long-term averages.

From the beginning of the current crop year (September 23, 2021) until April 18, precipitation has dropped by 29 percent compared to a year ago, Sadeq Ziaeian, director of the national center for drought and crisis management, affiliated with the Meteorological Organization, said.

The precipitation rate during autumn (September 23-December 21, 2021) was not very favorable, as the Meteorological Organization has considered this autumn one of the driest seasons in the past 50 years.

Overall, the rainfall rate during the current water year is not yet favorable, as it is 15.5 percent lower than normal averages.

According to the World Meteorological Organization’s multiannual forecast, in the next five years, Iran’s average rainfall will decline by 75 percent, and the temperature rises by 50-75 percent compared to the long-term average.

4.8 million people at medium to high risk of drought

The amount of rainfall in Iran’s main river basins from September 2020 to July 2021 was, in most places, substantially lower compared with the year-earlier period. Iran experiences frequent droughts and faces the prospect of more extreme conditions brought about by climate change.

According to current assessments, parts of Iran are facing a rainfall anomaly which has had an observed impact on vegetation and agriculture. Of particular concern is that these drought impacts have been observed in northeastern Iran in areas bordering Afghanistan.

The Iranian Red Crescent Society estimates that 4.8 million people are at medium to high risk of drought-related impacts, mostly in remote and rural areas of the provinces.

It reports that 29 of 31 provinces, and especially seven – South Khorasan, Kerman, Sistan-Baluchestan, Hormozgan, Khuzestan, Isfahan, and Khorasan Razavi – have been severely affected by the drought. The lack of safe and sufficient water supply for drinking, hygiene, agriculture, animal husbandry, and electrical power is having a devastating and increasingly unsustainable strain on households’ health, and income in addition to encouraging negative social trends and coping mechanisms.

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Insufficient intake of water and irregular exploitation of the wetlands are now threatening these valuable biodiversity reserves.

Covering an area of 3,000 hectares, Almagol and Ajigol are seasonally-filled freshwater lakes, fed by autumn and winter rains, which become desiccated in drought periods. Alagol is slightly saline and fringed by extensive reed and grass marshes.

Almagol is sparsely vegetated. There are several human settlements. The site supports Anatidae (ducks, geese, swans, etc.), flamingos, and nesting White-tailed Plover.

Placed on the Montreux Record in 1993 due to high levels of disturbance from wildfowl hunters and the extraction of water for irrigation purposes, which has lowered lake levels considerably, especially during summer.

Recent rainfalls have eased the water shortage problem in the Caspian Sea province, however, wetlands have lost a lion’s share of their beauty and significance.

Wetlands are ecosystems saturated with water, either seasonally or permanently. They store water and ensure its quality, providing resilience against drought. They play a central role in sustainable development by supplying all our freshwater. More than 40 percent of freshwater fish are said to live in wetlands.

Wetlands play a major role in protecting the land against floods and the impacts of storms. They provide food and diverse habitats which support genetic, species, and ecosystem biodiversity. Wetlands play a key role in the life cycles of many species and in annual migration patterns.

Iran is rich in terms of having a variety of wetlands due to its climatic diversity. In Iran, 141 wetlands with ecological value with an area of over 3 million hectares have been identified, of which 25 wetlands are designated as wetlands of international importance (registered in the Ramsar Convention) covering more than 1.4 million hectares and four sites are biosphere reserves.

Of Iran’s 25 Ramsar sites about one-third are under pressure or in critical condition.

Unfortunately, wetlands are being degraded and lost due to pollution, overexploitation, climate change, and human population growth.

Concurrent with the adoption of the Ramsar Convention, World Wetlands Day was designated on February 22, emphasizing the importance of the wetlands and sustainable use of these valuable ecosystems.

The theme for this year’s World Wetlands Day is ‘Wetlands Action for People and Nature’. It aims to highlight the importance of actions to conserve and sustain wetlands.

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“Although our strategic wheat stocks are currently in good condition, it must be put on the agenda to meet the future needs through imports,” Zabihollah A’zami told IRNA on Friday.

According to the Agriculture Ministry data, so far 4,463,000 tons of wheat have been purchased from farmers, which is expected to reach a maximum of 4,600,000 tons, A’zami said, adding that this year’s production is significantly lower than the previous year.

The official further put the country’s minimum demand for wheat in the current year at six million tons and stressed: “latest statistics show that the country may need to import eight million tons of wheat this year.”

In recent years, due to self-sufficiency in wheat production and the supply of this strategic product by domestic farmers, wheat imports have been banned.

Iran’s wheat production exceeded 14 million tons in the previous Iranian calendar year 1399.

Over the past few years, the Agriculture Ministry has been implementing several programs for improving wheat production in the country.

Providing seed, pesticides, expert consultations, and technical supervision, as well as damage control programs like weed control, have been among the ministry’s programs for boosting wheat production.

The wheat harvest season is approximately 4.5 months in Iran starting in early April up to mid-August.

Based on the agriculture ministry data, Iranian farmers produced nearly 14.5 million tons of wheat in the Iranian calendar year 1398 (ended on March 20, 2020), 1.2 million tons more than the figure for its preceding year.

Iran’s wheat harvest has been enough to make the county self-sufficient in the production of this strategic crop over the past five years.

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Due to climate change in Iran, the frequency and severity of extreme phenomena such as heatwaves, floods, and heavy rainfall is increasing, he stated.

The maps show that this fall (September 23), rainfall will decline by 30 percent compared to the long-term average, he said, adding, we expect the autumn rains to start later this year and the season is expected to be half a degree to one degree warmer than normal.

It is worth mentioning that torrential rains are not predictable in the seasonal and monthly forecasts, but only a few days before the occurrence, he emphasized, IRNA reported on Friday.

The latest report of the national center for drought and crisis management indicates that 129.9 mm of rainfall occurred from the beginning of the current water year (September 23, 2020) until June 28, compared to 224.3 mm of rainfall, in the long run, showing a 42.1 percent decline.

This decrease in rainfall has had a negative effect on the dam reservoirs and has caused a reduction of more than 49 percent in the water intake of dams, which has led to serious challenges in water supply, he lamented.

From June 22 to July 29, only one-tenth of a millimeter of rain poured over the country, which shows a decrease of 86.7 percent compared to the long-term average of 0.9 millimeters.

More drought predicted over next 5 years

According to the World Meteorological Organization’s multiannual forecast, in the next five years, Iran’s average rainfall will decline by 75 percent, and the temperature rises by 50-75 percent compared to the long-term average.

Accordingly, the adoption of national policies to adapt to low rainfall and reduce the consequences of drought is inevitable, and the Seventh Development Plan should be prepared on the basis of drought and climate change, Vazifeh said in May.

A large part of the country has been hit by severe drought during the past 12 months. Forecasts indicate that we will not have significant rainfall in the remaining months of the current water year, so that, we face severe to very severe drought in most parts of the country, he stated.

What would be the consequences?

Climate change is a fact that cannot be run over, whether the temperature raises over 2 or 6°C, natural incidents such as flooding, droughts, and severe storms are among the main consequences of climate change.

Moreover, water and food shortages, water-borne illnesses, cold or heat-related deaths will come up as the results of temperature variations; in tropical areas also the risk of floods will raise.

Heavy rain and other extreme weather events will become more frequent, which can lead to floods along with decreasing water quality, but also decreasing availability of water resources in some regions.

Climate change will also bring extreme wet and dry seasons, which mainly causes rainfall fluctuations and water scarcity. While there have been prolonged droughts nationwide in past recent years leaving people scrambling for water.

So, nations must take steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the future, preventing the emissions peak, otherwise, they might not be able to breathe on the planet in the future, or migrate to other places if found.

The study may also come efficient when it comes to making the people aware of climate change impact in their own city, within their lifetime, to avoid experiencing an entirely new climate that is beyond human experience.

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