The foreign minister said that all the people are equal in the face of this common human pain.

“If one country becomes vulnerable to the threat of corona pandemic, the entirety of the international community will suffer from the same vulnerability,” Zarif said.

“We cannot buy a security for ourselves at the cost of making others insecure. We cannot build a future for ourselves by putting pressure on others. I wish COVID-19 would at least teach us this lesson to understand that in an interconnected world, we are all boarding the same boat.”

He stressed the need to act indiscriminately in distributing the vaccine among the poor and rich nations.

Referring to Iran’s difficulties caused by the US tough sanctions to provide medical supplies from abroad, Zarif said that the Iranian scientists successfully managed to produce COVID-19 vaccines as they already manufactured missiles domestically.

The United States should act quickly to revive Iran’s nuclear deal, because once Iran’s presidential election period kicks off it is unlikely much will happen until later this year, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said on Monday (Mar 15).

Speaking at the European Policy Centre think tank, Zarif repeated Tehran’s longstanding demand that Washington returns first to

He added that he had seen no change between the Biden administration and the Trump administration’s policy of maximum pressure to force Iran back to the negotiating table. He said he saw no reason to hold preliminary talks because the US was making “extraneous” demands. compliance by lifting sanctions.

“There is a time constraint and that is once we go to our election it is a lame-duck government and (it) will not be able to do anything serious and then we will have a waiting period of almost six months,” he said, referring to a presidential election due on Jun 18.

“It is advisable for the United States to move fast and moving fast requires them not to be shy, but takes measures that they need to take.”

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He went on to say, “Today, supplying the vaccine is one of the demands of the people. The government is trying to achieve results as soon as possible or import approved vaccines.”

He also spoke about the US sabotages on supplying the vaccine, saying that in the recent month the country has faced some problems in terms of transferring money to buy the vaccine and this one of the clearest examples of a crime committed by the United States against the Iranian people.

He also stressed that the health of the Iranian nation is a priority for the government saying that Iran refuses to import foreign vaccines that they have not passed their clinical trial and approval processes yet.

People should be assured that they will not be tested by foreign companies for the Covid-19 vaccine, he added.

He also added that even after vaccinating the people, it is a must to observe health protocols.

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Speaking to ILNA, Hossein Tanhaee pointed to some details of the meeting of the members of the chamber with First Vice-President Eshaq Jahangiri on the fate of Iran’s blocked assets in South Korea and said, in the meeting with Mr. Jahangiri, the chamber presented its suggestions for bartering goods with South Korea.

He admitted that South Koreans have not yet begun any practical action for barter or release of Iran’s frozen assets and during the meeting with the First Vice President, some solutions for this woe were presented by the chamber. Tanhaee noted that in the meeting, the barter of some kinds of goods which can be bartered and their tariffs were determined and now all should wait and see the result of the next meeting with South Koreans and how much they would cooperate with Iran over the suggested list of goods for barter.
On the proposed goods for barter in exchange for Iran’s frozen money, he said the list has been prepared based on the priorities of the country and it includes raw materials, medicines, petrochemicals, auto, and home appliances parts.

He emphasized that the most important issue in bartering Iran’s frozen money is the purchase of COVID-19 vaccines, adding that necessary coordination is underway by the health ministry.

Tanhaee added that the amount of Iran’s frozen assets in South Korea is between 8 to 8.5 billion dollars, adding that for imports of each item of goods for bartering, a certain amount of blocked money has been earmarked but it depends on South Korea how much they would cooperate.

On the cost of holding the frozen money in South Korean banks, he said in most countries, banks charge some fee for the public deposits and its amount is insignificant and it is in the framework of the banking system of countries.

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In 2020, gold rose more than 20%, with the highest peak reached in August when it hit a new record high of $2,075 an ounce. Since then, gold has been consolidating below the $1,900 an ounce level.

The majority of analysts Kitco News spoke to for this outlook is bullish on gold, projecting to see new all-time highs next year. The main drivers cited include inflation, weaker U.S. dollar, economic concerns, currency debasement fears, and low-interest rates.

“If you take the optimistic side and imagine that many people do get vaccinated and the vaccine works, then the economy should take off in a serious way in the second half of next year. The inflationary scenario becomes a real possibility, which is positive for metals,” Kitco Metals global trading director Peter Hug said.

As COVID-19 is maintained and controlled, consumer demand will increase and drive the economy higher, creating a supply shortage, which will trigger higher prices and inflation.

“People will return to the real world at a time when the supply of real goods will be constrained. Inventory levels are already very low because of COVID restrictions. On top of that, you had the professional class make more money during the lockdown. And most people in the low-income category also have some extra income due to stimulus. We could see more demand and drastically reduced supply,” said StoneX director of global macro strategy Vincent Deluard.

Inflation seems to be the main risk to watch out for next year, with Capital Economics U.S. economist Andrew Hunter pointing to the very likely rise in goods prices as well as costs of services.

“Expect inflation to pick up relatively quickly. It is this potential upward pressure when you consider demand coming back strong and supply still being constrained. The goods inventories are unusually low. We’ll see a pick up in prices for goods and services. Various industries will still be subject to various restrictions, and that will push up costs,” Hunter explained.

On top of that, the Federal Reserve is willing to let inflation run hot without raising rates, he added. “It is pretty clear that the Fed won’t be rushing to raise interest rates and will allow inflation to modestly reach their target. Easy to see that becoming an issue they’ll have to address.”

Economic recovery aside, the positive vaccine news does not solve the issue of global debt, added Guardian Vaults Business Development Manager John Feeney. “Vaccine is not going to cure the amount of global debt. Even if a vaccine is successful, I still think central bank policy will remain accommodative,” Feeney said.

Gold price levels for 2021

For gold, this means new all-time highs with more investors choosing to diversify into the precious metal in order to protect themselves from rising prices and currency debasement.

“The 2020 gold high will be taken out. If we get an inflationary surge again, gold north of $2,500-$3,000 is a real possibility until the central banks start to re-tighten. But tighter monetary policies are at least a year away, if not longer,” Hug pointed out.

Next year will see central banks holding their foot down on the stimulus pedal with no chance of rates going higher. “In that context, you have to be bullish on the metal,” noted Hug.

A big attraction of gold in 2021 will be its role as a protection against inflation amid massive quantitative easing and money printing, said Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates managing partner Leigh Goehring.

“2021 will be the year that investors believe that there is going to be a return of inflation. We haven’t experienced anything like that for 40 years. At some point in 2021, it will happen. This is when the next leg of the bull market will take off,” Goehring said. “With all this money printing we’ve gone through in 2020, next year will be the year we are all disabused of the notion that we can print money without consequences. Gold can go through $2,100, and we could possibly challenge $3,000.”

The concept of gold being at the beginning stages of its bull run has resonated with a lot of the analysts.

“I am a big believer that in this bull market, gold is going to be significantly higher than the $10,000 an ounce level,” said Goehring. “The first leg of the bull market was when gold went from $1,500 to almost $2,100. And after this corrective phase, gold will begin another huge bull move. Next leg could take gold above $5,000 an ounce.”

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone also pointed out that he doesn’t see this gold market ending until we get to the bottom of the next bear market in stocks, which is still far away. “At some point, the fear of missing out on stocks will end, and gold will take off,” he said.

McGlone pointed to rising debt-to-GDP ratio, quantitative easing, and the narrative in Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) as the reasons behind gold’s move to new record highs next year.

“Last year, the key level we were looking up to was $1,700 resistance, now we are looking up at $2,000 resistance, next year it will be even higher,” he said.

Another key trigger that will boost gold towards $2,100 next year will be stock market volatility, Feeney added.

“The U.S. share market is trading at historical extremes because investors are optimistic about the vaccine curing it all. In 2021, we are likely going to have equity market volatility throughout the year, and that should be supportive of precious metals prices,” he said.

Potential problems to watch

One area to keep an eye on next year is the effectiveness of the vaccine as well as the number of people lining up to vaccinate.

“If the vaccine is not as effective or less than 50% of the population takes the vaccine, then the economy is going to struggle, and both the government and the Fed is not going to have any option but to increase stimulus,” said Hug. “This will also be constructive for gold … There is a macro bull market in the metals, assuming the economy doesn’t implode.”

Another issue has been a weak physical demand in light of higher gold prices. On top of that, central banks around the world have paused their gold purchases, with the 2020 gold rally being primarily driven by the Western investor, Goehring pointed out.

“The Western investor will continue to play a huge role in the gold market. Central bank buying and Eastern gold buying will be pushed aside to make room for the Western investor. We saw the first stages of that shift already take place when gold was trading above $2,000,” he said.

The investors in the West have been driving the gold-backed ETF inflows, which, despite slowing at the end of the year, saw record levels in 2020, according to the World Gold Council. “Net inflows of 916t (US$50.3bn) in 2020 remain well above the highest yearly amount on record,” the WGC said in December.

Goehring sees new people embracing the gold market next year as money is pulled out of weaker bonds and flows into gold.

Feeney added that increased gold-backed ETF demand will continue into 2021, stating that gold is getting a lot of positive coverage and many investors still don’t have exposure to the precious metal. “As we move into 2021, gold will rise on the realization that the vaccine will not cure all of our economic problems. It’s at that point you’ll see quite a bit of market volatility,” he said.

Bitcoin competition

Gold could also see some significant pressure from its digital rival bitcoin, which has surged past $20,000 for the first time ever in December. Some analysts are warning that the allure of bitcoin will steal some of the attention away from gold.

“A new nuance for gold this year is bitcoin’s competition and demand. It is a fact that a lot of flows are going towards bitcoin. This might suppress the gold rally next year,” McGlone said.

This is a unique and never-seen-before development, he added, noting that bitcoin is likely to continue to outperform gold. “To me, it is very clear that the price of gold would be higher if bitcoin didn’t exist,” McGlone said. “We’ve seen outflows in gold ETFs, yet the opposite in bitcoin.”

JPMorgan Chase said in December that bitcoin’s wider adoption will have a direct impact on gold, which could trigger a major shift in institutional allocation between the two assets.

“The adoption of bitcoin by institutional investors has only begun … If this proves right, the price of gold would suffer from a structural headwind over the coming years,” JPMorgan strategists said.

Not all analysts agree with this premise. Walsh Trading co-director Sean Lusk said bitcoin could not hurt gold in the short-term. “Maybe 20-30 years down the line,” he said.

Digix co-founder and COO Shaun Djie added that he does not see gold and bitcoin being in direct competition with one another.

“Bitcoin appeals more towards the digital audience, which wants to get into a store of value. Gold appeals to traditional investors and central banks. I think when central banks start to invest into bitcoin as they do in gold, that’s when the crypto would become a real competition,” Djie said.

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Gold is viewed by many as the archetypal haven asset, inevitably driven higher in times of turmoil. By that logic, a beginning of the end of the crisis would signal a turning point for the rally. But the precious metal also serves as a hedge against inflation. And with the massive amounts of money being poured into the global economy this year, any signs of rising consumer prices could send investors diving back to bullion.

For most of 2020, conditions could hardly have been better for gold, as the deluge of money printing, weaker dollar and global uncertainty spurred demand, driving up prices. Tumbling real U.S. Treasury rates sparked steeper gains in July and August, eventually sending spot gold to a record above $2,075 an ounce.

While prices have fallen a bit since then, investors continued their rush into exchange traded funds, which at their peak in October had sucked in nearly 900 tons of metal this year, more than double the final inflow in 2019.

In a matter of weeks, everything changed.

Gold suffered its second-biggest drop in seven years on the day that Pfizer Inc. announced early results showing its vaccine was 90% effective. Political wrangling in the U.S. is raising doubts about future stimulus. ETFs, which were so crucial to this year’s rally, have seen outflows for at least six straight days, while hedge funds bullish bullion bets were near the lowest level in 17 months in the week to Nov. 17.

“The strongly positive vaccine news augurs the real prospect of a return to normality perhaps by spring,” said Tai Wong, head of metal derivatives trading at BMO Capital Markets. While low rates and the potential for more government support will help boost bullion over time, “the velocity of gold’s rise has likely been tempered in the short term,” he said.

So can the bull market stay alive?

The inflation question will be key to any outlook now, and it’s not the first time. Gold surged to its former record in 2011, just after the financial crisis when central banks began widespread quantitative easing, sparking fears of Weimar Germany-style hyperinflation. However, bulls were ultimately disappointed then, as inflation was kept in check.

This time could be different, according to Oliver Harvey, a macro strategist at Deutsche Bank AG.

“When we come out of Covid there is a huge amount of liquidity. Saving rates have gone through the roof because people have been stuck at home, still earning money,” he said. “If inflation ticks up to 3% to 3.5% in the developed world, a lot of people will notice.”

Bulls point to a weaker dollar, which almost always helps bullion, and central bank action to boost the economic recovery that should also be supportive.

“Risks to gold prices remain skewed to the upside given expectations of loose monetary policy, with real rates remaining low or negative globally,” said Suki Cooper, a precious metals analyst at Standard Chartered Plc. She also sees elevated government debt stoking inflation expectations.

Also in gold’s favor: while prices plunged on the first Pfizer news, subsequent announcements haven’t provoked the same sharp reaction and the metal closed little changed after Moderna Inc.’s news on Nov. 16.

Still, the bears’ camp is undoubtedly growing. Macquarie Group Ltd. this week declared the “end of the cyclical bull market” and said prices have probably peaked.

The bank pointed to the increased likelihood of a vaccine being introduced in the coming months, as well as its outlook for higher 10-year Treasury yields, which hit the highest since March on the first Pfizer announcement.

The prospect of a vaccine rollout may also lower the potential for future government stimulus, especially while control of the Senate remains pending.

“It’s unlikely now with a split Senate that this serious level of fiscal spending goes on,” said Darius Tabatabai, head of trading at Arion Investment Management.

Gold may also suffer as investors put money into other asset classes that stand to benefit from the recovering economy. And even in a scenario where the dollar keeps weakening or inflation picks up, gold may be at risk of losing out to Bitcoin as investors’ hedge of choice.

As the virus is brought under control and confidence returns, money managers will probably rotate toward risk and value, which means “gold’s bull run comes to an end and likely goes into reverse,” said Rhona O’Connell, head of market analysis for EMEA and Asia at StoneX Group Inc.

“But the to-ing and fro-ing over the past fortnight is a fair reflection of the fact that this is a vaccine, not a cure, and there is a long way to go before we are out of the woods.”

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