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	<title>2020 economy Archives - Iran News Daily</title>
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	<title>2020 economy Archives - Iran News Daily</title>
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		<title>Russia, China Financial Alliance, Makes Dollar Crash?</title>
		<link>https://irannewsdaily.com/2020/08/russia-china-financial-alliance-makes-dollar-crash/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 18 Aug 2020 05:07:54 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[economic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[international]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2020 economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China-Russia Alliance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dollar]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://irannewsdaily.com/?p=115758</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>TEHRAN (Iran News) – As the dollar continues its crash against the backdrop of an economy battered by the coronavirus pandemic, with the US Federal Reserve pushing for quantitative easing and nearly-zero interest rates to offset the impact of the health crisis, the greenback&#8217;s role as a universal store of value is now being questioned [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://irannewsdaily.com/2020/08/russia-china-financial-alliance-makes-dollar-crash/">Russia, China Financial Alliance, Makes Dollar Crash?</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://irannewsdaily.com">Iran News Daily</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>TEHRAN (<a href="https://irannewsdaily.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Iran News</a>) – As the dollar continues its crash against the backdrop of an economy battered by the coronavirus pandemic, with the US Federal Reserve pushing for quantitative easing and nearly-zero interest rates to offset the impact of the health crisis, the greenback&#8217;s role as a universal store of value is now being questioned as never before.</p>
<p>Economists worldwide are being forced by the economic downturn generated by the coronavirus pandemic to re-assess the global role of the US dollar, which has lost ground against a range of currencies, dropping nearly five percent in July, marking its biggest monthly plunge in more than 10 years, sputniknews.com reported.</p>
<p>Gold — a traditional safe haven in volatile times — marched higher, buoyed by investors&#8217; doubts and a jittery market. In an attempt to offset the impact of the COVID-19-wrought devastation, some countries have resorted to other options in their bilateral transactions.</p>
<p>Russia and China, accordingly, are suggested as availing themselves of an opportunity to forge what has been hinted as a potential ‘banking’ or ‘financial alliance’ to boost ‘de-dollarization’ collaboration between the two trading partners, Russian-American political scientist Dimitri Simes was cited as saying by the Nikkei Asian Review.</p>
<p>A slew of current figures supports the trend, as the US dollar&#8217;s share of trade between Moscow and Beijing dropped to a record low of 46 percent in the first quarter of 2020, according to recent figures provided by Russia&#8217;s Central Bank and Federal Customs Service.</p>
<p>Less than half of transactions between the two countries were made in dollars in the first three months of 2020, with 30 percent being euro-denominated and the remaining 24 percent conducted in the national currencies of the two nations.</p>
<p>In comparison, in 2015 nearly 90 percent of all transactions between Russia and China were conducted in dollars.</p>
<p>Last June, the two countries&#8217; officials penned an agreement to move away from the dollar in bilateral transactions in favor of national currencies — the ruble and yuan — instead.</p>
<p>The clout an ‘alliance’ between Russia and China might wield in efforts to ditch the dollar is just one factor potentially driving down demand for the dollar.</p>
<p>Attempts to prop up the ailing economy have driven the US Federal Reserve to ‘print’ money and inject it into the commercial banking system.</p>
<p>By the end of 2020, the Fed is projected to have purchased $3.5 trillion in government securities with these newly created dollars, according to Oxford Economics, yet Wall Street experts warn that by unleashing the printing press, the government risks debasing the US currency, and hastening its crash.</p>
<p>The Fed has also cut its benchmark interest rate to near zero, vowing it will continue to do so until the economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic.</p>
<p>This comes as the federal deficit more than tripled in the first 10 months of the fiscal year, according to the Treasury Department.</p>
<p>The US budget gap totaled $2.8 trillion from October through July, 224 percent larger than the $867 billion gap during the same period a year earlier.</p>
<p>Warnings were earlier issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its August statement.</p>
<p>With the United States set to double down on its fiscal stimulus to boost economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic and the actions of the Federal Reserve, there is a growing risk of a sudden loss of confidence in the US dollar, cautioned Zhu Min, Chinese economist who was deputy managing director of the IMF from 2011 to 2016.</p>
<p>&#8220;The concern isn&#8217;t whether the US dollar will see an accumulated decline of 30 percent in the future, but whether there will be a blow-up event that causes a sudden loss of confidence in the US dollar, and its market to collapse&#8221;, said Zhu, who is currently head of the National Financial Research Institute at Tsinghua University in Beijing.</p>
<p>Stephen Roach, former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, has predicted a looming dollar crash, reported Bloomberg.</p>
<p>&#8220;The US economy has been afflicted with some significant macro imbalances for a long time, namely a very low domestic savings rate and a chronic current account deficit&#8221;, he said, forecasting that the dollar would plummet 35 percent against other major currencies.</p>
<p>&#8220;The era of the US dollar&#8217;s &#8216;exorbitant privilege&#8217; as the world&#8217;s primary reserve currency is coming to an end&#8221;, stated the economist.</p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://irannewsdaily.com/2020/08/russia-china-financial-alliance-makes-dollar-crash/">Russia, China Financial Alliance, Makes Dollar Crash?</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://irannewsdaily.com">Iran News Daily</a>.</p>
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		<title>IMF: global economy at risk of Great Depression</title>
		<link>https://irannewsdaily.com/2020/01/imf-global-economy-at-risk-of-great-depression/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 19 Jan 2020 06:33:01 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[economic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[international]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2020 economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Great Depression]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IMF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IMF chief]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://irannewsdaily.com/?p=104884</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>TEHRAN (Iran News) &#8211; The head of the International Monetary Fund has warned that the global economy risks a return of the Great Depression, driven by inequality and financial sector instability. Speaking at the Peterson Institute of International Economics in Washington, Kristalina Georgieva said new IMF research, which compares the current economy to the ‘roaring [&#8230;]</p>
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]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div>
<p class="lide">TEHRAN (<a href="https://irannewsdaily.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Iran News</a>) &#8211; The head of the International Monetary Fund has warned that the global economy risks a return of the Great Depression, driven by inequality and financial sector instability.</p>
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<p>Speaking at the Peterson Institute of International Economics in Washington, Kristalina Georgieva said new IMF research, which compares the current economy to the ‘roaring 1920s’ that culminated in the great market crash of 1929, revealed that a similar trend was already underway, the Guardian reported.</p>
<p>While the inequality gap between countries had closed in the last two decades, it had increased within countries, she said, singling out the UK for particular criticism.</p>
<p>“In the UK, for example, the top 10 percent now control nearly as much wealth as the bottom 50 percent. This situation is mirrored across much of the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development), where income and wealth inequality have reached, or are near, record highs.”</p>
<p>She added: “In some ways, this troubling trend is reminiscent of the early part of the 20th century — when the twin forces of technology and integration led to the first gilded age, the roaring 20s, and, ultimately, financial disaster.”</p>
<p>She warned that fresh issues such as the climate emergency and increased trade protectionism meant the next 10 years were likely to be characterized by social unrest and financial market volatility.</p>
<p>“If I had to identify a theme at the outset of the new decade, it would be increasing uncertainty,” she said.</p>
<p>With disputes still raging between the US and Europe, she said: “the global trading system is in need of a significant upgrade,” unless we will face another Great Depression.</p>
<p>Georgieva said uncertainty affects not only businesses but individuals, especially given the rising inequality within many countries.</p>
<p>She said that “excessive inequality hinders growth and &#8230; can fuel populism and political upheaval”.</p>
<p>Eric LeCompte, the head of debt charity Jubilee USA, said: “The IMF delivered a stark message about the potential for another massive financial disaster that we last experienced during the Great Depression.</p>
<p>“With inequality on the rise and concerns of stability in the markets, we need to take this warning seriously.”</p>
<p>While government spending to help those at the bottom is key, she added: “Too often we overlook the financial sector, which can also have a profound and long-lasting positive or negative effect on inequality.”</p>
<p>In a new study presented ahead of updated economic forecasts due next week, the IMF highlighted how access to the financial sector in China and India in the 1990s “paved the way for enormous economic gains in the 2000s”.</p>
<p>“This, in turn, helped in lifting a billion people out of poverty,” she said.</p>
<p>But she cautioned against the excesses that led to the 2008 global financial crisis and noted that, for many, the crisis has never ended, with one in four young people in Europe at risk of falling into poverty.</p>
<p>“There is no substitute for high-quality regulation and supervision,” Georgieva said. “We are safer but not safe enough.”</p>
</div>
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		<title>Eurozone economy to slow down in 2020, again</title>
		<link>https://irannewsdaily.com/2019/12/eurozone-economy-to-slow-down-in-2020-again/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 28 Dec 2019 05:31:38 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[economic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[international]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2020 economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Union]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eurozone economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The European Union]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://irannewsdaily.com/?p=103816</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>TEHRAN (Iran News) &#8211; The eurozone economy will slow down in 2020 for the third consecutive year, according to a Financial Times poll of economists, who forecast it will be held back by political instability, trade tensions, and disruption in the auto industry. The European Central Bank (ECB) expects the eurozone economy to grow 1.1 [&#8230;]</p>
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]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div>
<h4 class="lide">TEHRAN (<a href="https://irannewsdaily.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Iran News</a>) &#8211; The eurozone economy will slow down in 2020 for the third consecutive year, according to a Financial Times poll of economists, who forecast it will be held back by political instability, trade tensions, and disruption in the auto industry.</h4>
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<p>The European Central Bank (ECB) expects the eurozone economy to grow 1.1 percent this year in 2020, down from 1.2 percent in 2019, 1.8 percent in 2018 and 2.4 percent in 2017. But the 34 economists polled by the FT were more pessimistic, forecasting on average that growth would dip below one percent this year — the eurozone’s slowest rate for seven years, FT reported.</p>
<p>Their forecasts ranged from zero growth, at the most pessimistic, to 1.5 percent, at the most optimistic.</p>
<p>“With no end to global trade uncertainty insight, the tug of war between global investment headwinds and pockets of domestic resilience, underpinned by easy ECB policy, will continue to make for uncomfortable eurozone GDP readings,” said Lena Komileva, chief economist at G+ Economics.</p>
<p>A further eurozone slowdown could put pressure on Christine Lagarde, the ECB’s new president, to consider additional monetary policy easing. It is also likely to prompt more calls for governments with stronger financial positions — such as Germany and the Netherlands — to embark on a fiscal stimulus.</p>
<p>The ECB injected a sizeable wave of cheap money into the economy in September when it cut interest rates further into negative territory and restarted its €2.6 trillion bond-buying program in response to signs of sliding growth and inflation. However, with concern mounting about the negative side effects of its unconventional monetary policy, some economists fear the central bank could run out of ammunition to counter any further slowdown.</p>
<p>Despite the weakening economic performance, most of the economists polled by the FT expect the ECB to hold back from the further loosening of monetary policy and think Germany is unlikely to yield to pressure for a significant fiscal stimulus.</p>
<p>“Our baseline is the continuation of mediocrity in the absence of a strong rebound in world demand, the exhaustion of the monetary stimulus and the lack of decisive fiscal support,” said Gilles Moec, chief economist at French insurer Axa.</p>
<p>Of the 34 economists polled, only nine expect a further cut in interest rates this year, while 24 expect no change and one expects the central bank to raise rates. Half of them expect the ECB to maintain its program of buying €20 billion of bonds a month throughout the year, while 10 expect it to be either scaled back or halted and only six expect it to be expanded.</p>
<p>Lucrezia Reichlin, an economics professor at the London Business School, said the biggest risks to the eurozone economy were “trade-related risks from both the US/China and Brexit”. She added that ‘political risks’ in Italy could also cause problems.</p>
<p>Two-thirds of the economists surveyed said they doubted that calls by Ms. Lagarde and others for Germany and the Netherlands to launch a sizeable fiscal stimulus would be successful, even though the vast majority of economists agreed with her.</p>
<p>“The trend of the eurozone in the rate of growth is very low due to poor productivity and dismal demography, so cyclical downturns easily lead to stagnation,” said Philippe Legrain, visiting senior fellow at the London School of Economics. “In addition, monetary policy can’t do much more, while a fiscal stimulus is likely to be too little, too late.”</p>
<p>The ECB estimates that eurozone inflation fell last year to 1.2 percent — down from 1.8 percent in 2018. A small majority of economists polled by the FT forecast inflation will dip again this year, making it even further below the ECB’s objective of close to two percent.</p>
<p>Industrial output contracted sharply in the eurozone last year, but the domestically focused services sector proved resilient. Paul Diggle, senior economist at UK fund manager Aberdeen Standard Investments, said this could reverse in 2020.</p>
<p>“Manufacturing will bottom and rebound slightly,” he said. “But services and the labor market will slow further.”</p>
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