TEHRAN (Iran News) – An influential COVID-19 model predicted the total number of US deaths from the virus by August, a number that researchers say will be impacted by how many Americans continue to wear masks as vaccinations continue.
A model from the University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s (IHME) predicts about 618,523 people will have died from coronavirus in the US by August 1.
If 95% of the US population wore masks, the projection drops to 604,413 deaths.
In the worst-case scenario, in which fully vaccinated people return to pre-pandemic levels of mobility, the prediction grows to 697,573, the IHME forecasted.
The projection factors in the rate of vaccine distribution as well as the concerning spread of more transmissible variants.
All 50 states are on track to open vaccines to Americans 16 and older starting April 19. Though the increased inoculations are an important step in defeating the virus, health experts warn the country is in a race against variants, like the B.1.1.7 first identified in the UK, that have the potential to cause another surge in cases.
At least 560,000 people have died from coronavirus to date, according to Johns Hopkins University.
Vaccines are an effective tool against virus spread, but they are not perfect and should be supplemented by precautions like wearing masks and avoiding indoor gatherings, stated Dr. Anthony Fauci.
“I don’t think I would — even if I’m vaccinated — go into an indoor, crowded place where people aren’t wearing masks,” the Director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases told Business Insider.
Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the Director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), warned in a White House briefing Friday that COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations are increasing – particularly for younger people – while deaths are going down.
